NFL Coaching Matters: AFC West Preview

NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. This article by Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key AFC West coaches.

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the AFC West to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. The Las Vegas Raiders kept their key offensive coaches, but the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs will all have a couple of key changes in their offensive coaching staff.

Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the AFC West!

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Denver Broncos

2023 Head Coach: Sean Payton

Sean Payton was hired to be the Denver Broncos' newest head coach this offseason. Prior to taking the job with the Broncos, Sean Payton had spent time as an offensive coordinator for the New York Giants (2000-2002) and as the head coach of the New Orleans Saints (2006-2021). Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Denver Broncos players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Sean Payton's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Joe Lombardi

Joe Lombardi will be the Denver Broncos' newest offensive coordinator in 2023, after previously serving as an offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions (2014-2015) and the Los Angeles Chargers (2021-2022). Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Denver Broncos players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Joe Lombardi's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Sean Payton & Joe Lombardi's Takeaways & Expectations

Sean Payton has been one of the best coaches in the NFL at getting good fantasy numbers out of his teams over the course of his career.

Looking at Payton's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of things to pay attention to. First, Sean Payton's offense has been absolutely phenomenal for fantasy running backs over the course of his career, with just one season out of 18 where his running back room performed at a below-average level. Secondly, Payton's wide receiver room has been pretty good over the course of his career as a whole but has taken a bit of a downturn over the last three years. Lastly, Sean Payton's tight-end rooms have been very up and down over the course of his entire career with a lot more down years in his most recent coaching years.

Besides head coach Sean Payton, we should also briefly look at offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's data as an NFL offensive play-caller.

Looking at Lombardi's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of things to pay attention to. First, much like Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi's offense has been great for fantasy running backs over the course of his career. Secondly, Joe Lombardi's wide receiver room has consistently performed at an above-average level for fantasy purposes over the course of his career. Lastly, Joe Lombardi's tight-end rooms have been mediocre at best in his time as an offensive play-caller.

Based on all of this information:

• You should be using draft picks on the Denver Broncos running back room. Javonte Williams has been talked about for his upside when he's healthy, but Samaje Perine is also a great dice roll at his current ADP – especially if Javonte isn't ready to play at the start of the year.
• There's a good chance the Denver Broncos have a breakout star at the wide receiver position in Sean Payton's offense. The most likely candidate is Jerry Jeudy, but you'll want to pay close attention to training camp news and who the team is primarily utilizing as the 'X receiver'.
• It's unlikely that Greg Dulcich or Albert Okwuegbunam breaks out in this offense. They will be matchup-based tight-end streamers in 2023.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Tony Jones Jr., Tyler Badie, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims Jr., Marquez Callaway, Kendall Hinton, Greg Dulcich, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Adam Trautman

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore

The Los Angeles Chargers shook up their offensive coaching staff this offseason, moving on from Joe Lombardi and hiring Kellen Moore to be the team's new offensive coordinator. Prior to taking the job with the Chargers, Moore served as the Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2022. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Moore's team offensive statistics over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator role to get a better understanding of how the Chargers may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Kellen Moore's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Kellen Moore's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley has been more defensive-minded over the course of his career, we will look at Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's info in this section.

There are a few things we can take away from Kellen Moore's 0.5 PPR data. First, Moore's running back room has generally been above-average in terms of fantasy production over the course of his career. Second, Kellen Moore's wide receiver rooms in Dallas were always above-average fantasy producers. Third, in terms of fantasy production, Kellen Moore's tight end room was a little above average during his time in Dallas – but not quite as good as the running back or wide receiver rooms.

Looking ahead to next season, it's likely:

• Austin Ekeler is still an RB1. He may not get quite as many pass-catching opportunities as he got with Shane Steichen or Joe Lombardi calling the plays, but he should still be a building block for your team.
• There are multiple wide receivers in this offense that can be at least a low-end WR2/FLEX-caliber play. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be solid investments at their current ADPs, and first-round draft pick Quentin Johnston will have value if either of them misses time.
• Gerald Everett will be in the mix as a low-end TE1 this year in this offense.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick, Max Duggan, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, Larry Rountree III, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Jalen Guyton, Derius Davis, Keelan Doss, Gerald Everett, and Donald Parham Jr.

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Head Coach: Andy Reid

The Kansas City Chiefs hired Andy Reid to be the team's head coach back in 2013 after he spent 14 seasons as the head coach with the Philadelphia Eagles (1999-2012). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Reid's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Chiefs may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Andy Reid's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Matt Nagy

After Eric Bieniemy left to become the Washington Commanders' offensive coordinator, the Chiefs decided to make Matt Nagy the team's new offensive coordinator. Matt Nagy will be in his second stint as the Chiefs' offensive coordinator (2017) and also has prior experience as an offensive play-caller from his time as the Chicago Bears head coach (2017-2020). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Nagy's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Chiefs may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Matt Nagy's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Andy Reid & Matt Nagy's Takeaways & Expectations

Andy Reid has been one of the most successful coaches in the NFL over the last twenty years and has led some great fantasy offenses during his career.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Andy Reid's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, while Reid may not provide the largest workload to his running back room, he does do a good job getting them fantasy-efficient touches – resulting in a couple of RB1s in the past. Second, Andy Reid's offenses generally don't do a great job of getting fantasy production out of the wide receiver position, which may be surprising to some. Third, Reid's tight end room has generally been pretty solid for fantasy but it took off into a whole different stratosphere when Travis Kelce started playing more.

Besides Andy Reid, we also should take a brief look at offensive coordinator Matt Nagy's previous fantasy offenses in case he has to take over play-calling duties at some point in 2023.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Matt Nagy's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, Nagy's running back rooms have been slightly below average over the course of his five seasons in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Second, Matt Nagy's wide receiver rooms have been abysmal in nearly every year he's had a prominent offensive coaching role. Third, Nagy's tight end room has been pretty mediocre as a whole with one great year (2017), one bad year (2019), and three years hovering around the NFL league averages (2018, 2020, 2021).

Based on this information:

• Isiah Pacheco will be in the weekly FLEX play mix in this offense...but if Jerick McKinnon maintains his role as the primary pass-catching back it will be hard for him to be anything more than that.
• As much as we want to believe that one of the Chiefs' wide receivers can have a Tyreek Hill lite type of impact with Patrick Mahomes throwing them the ball, the bottom line is that the track record of Andy Reid's fantasy wide receivers isn't very good. Kadarius Toney is the only one even worth kicking the tires on in your draft – just don't reach for him.
• Travis Kelce is once again the safest bet at the tight end position to put up great fantasy numbers.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Patrick Mahomes, Blaine Gabbert, Shane Buechele, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, La'Mical Perine, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, Richie James, Justin Watson, Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, and Noah Gray

Las Vegas Raiders

2023 Head Coach: Josh McDaniels

Josh McDaniels was brought in to be the new Las Vegas Raiders head coach in 2022. He previously was the New England Patriots offensive coordinator from 2006 to 2008 before he was hired as the Denver Broncos' head coach (2009-2010). He flamed out as a head coach there and latched on as the St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator (2011) before coming back to New England in 2012 where he stayed through the 2021 season.

Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from McDaniels's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Raiders may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Josh McDaniels's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Mick Lombardi

Mick Lombardi was hired to be the Las Vegas Raiders' offensive coordinator in 2022. Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Lombardi's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Raiders may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Mick Lombardi's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Josh McDaniels & Mick Lombardi's Takeaways & Expectations

Because offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi has only worked as an offensive coordinator under Josh McDaniels, this section will primarily focus on head coach Josh McDaniels's previous fantasy impact on the offensive side of the ball.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Josh McDaniels's data for 0.5 PPR fantasy leagues. First, his running back room has generally been very good in terms of fantasy production. Second, his wide receiver room has been generally slightly above average for fantasy purposes over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller. Third, McDaniels's tight end room has been up and down over the course of his time as an offensive play-caller – with his tight end rooms being more down in recent years.

Based on this information:

• Josh Jacobs should get a good workload once again and will be in the RB1 mix. Zamir White also will have some value as a handcuff.
• Davante Adams is in a great spot to be one of the better fantasy wide receivers once again this season. Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow will have their weeks but will be more BYE week fill-in types of players rather than every week starters.
• We should be patient with Michael Mayer becoming a strong fantasy asset. It will come with time, but it probably won't be this year as a rookie while he's competing with Austin Hooper for playing time and playing in McDaniels's offense.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O'Connell, Josh Jacobs, Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah, Brandon Bolden, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Austin Hooper, DeAndre Carter, Keelan Cole, Cam Sims, Michael Mayer, and O.J. Howard

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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