San Francisco Skirmish – Deebo Samuel vs. Brandon Aiyuk for Fantasy Football

Rob takes a look at the ADPs for San Francisco 49ers wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and evaluates who could be more valuable for 2023 fantasy football.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel had a poor 2022 season that was largely attributed to injuries. Meanwhile, teammate Brandon Aiyuk experienced a third-year breakout campaign. Now entering the 2023 season, there are questions as to who is the true No. 1 receiver in San Francisco. Is it still Samuel, or will Aiyuk overtake him this season? Fantasy football managers will also need to decipher the quarterback situation for the 49ers, where the starting position is still somewhat up in the air. The most likely option is that Brock Purdy is behind center, but how does his play style impact their fantasy values?

Here you can read my previous positional debates, where I dissect two teammates and identify which player will have the better fantasy football season and who fantasy managers should be targeting based on their prices.

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A true fantasy football debate isn't so much about the players but rather their worth to fantasy managers. It becomes a two-part question. How much production will each player provide? And how much will it cost for fantasy managers to acquire each player? That's what we'll be discussing here. We'll identify which 49ers receiver looks assured to have the better fantasy football season and which player is the better acquisition at their cost. Remember, with fantasy football drafts around the corner, be sure to use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

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A Healthy Deebo Samuel Changes Everything

Since Brandon Aiyuk was drafted in 2020, there's been stretches where Deebo Samuel has missed time. While Aiyuk is an exciting player and an ascending talent, it's astonishing to see just how much a healthy Samuel negatively affects Aiyuk's production. There are some fantasy managers and analysts who believe Aiyuk is on his way to overtaking Samuel as the No. 1 receiver in the San Francisco offense. Or at the very least, drawing even with him. Unfortunately, the numbers bear out a different realization.

From the table above, you can see a very distinct and drastic change in Aiyuk's utilization and his effectiveness from when Samuel was and was not on the field this past season. Including playoff games (but excluding the NFC Championship where San Francisco had to play with no quarterback during times), Samuel played 14 contests with a snap share of at least 60%. He missed or played fewer than 60% of the snaps in five other games, and this represents the sample sizes in the table above.

The table above is based on the 14 games where Samuel played at least 60% of the snaps. While their yardage and receptions are fairly similar, you can see a significant difference between the two players in regard to their target share and targets per route run. Evident to their expected full-PPR PPG average during this time frame, Samuel was more heavily used. Samuel's expected average was 16.5, while Aiyuk's lagged behind at 12.9. What happens when we look at the five other games where Samuel was inactive or didn't play 60% of the snaps?

Unsurprisingly, we see increases almost all the way across the board. Not only that, but his expected full-PPR PPG average climbs from 12.9 with Samuel to 13.3 without. None of this is to say that Aiyuk is not good because he most certainly is. However, based on the numbers, Deebo still appears to be the No. 1 option in San Francisco's offense when he's healthy.

These two players tend to be used very differently in the Kyle Shanahan offense. Aiyuk generally operates more downfield, whereas Samuel is used much closer to the line of scrimmage. This is clear just from watching the games, but the numbers verify what our eyes are telling us. In the 14 games where Samuel played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 36.9 air yards per game. Aiyuk was at 69.4. This correlates with their average depth of target over this sample size, with Aiyuk at 10.7 and Samuel at just 4.9.

We've now peeled back the layers in the Aiyuk vs. Samuel dynamic by targeting games where Samuel didn't miss time. Another variable fantasy managers will need to be aware of is how Brock Purdy impacts both receivers. The 49ers had three different quarterbacks start games last season. Heading into 2023, it seems as though Purdy will be the starting quarterback barring a surprise outcome. How does he impact both players?

The Brock Purdy Effect

Unfortunately, we have a limited sample size with Purdy as the starter and Samuel playing 60% of the snaps. We are limited to four games, consisting of Week 13 (Purdy didn't start but attempted 37 passes) and then Weeks 18-20, which does include the team's first two playoff games. However, what we see is clear -- Samuel was Purdy's clear No. 1 receiver.

Samuel solidly led Aiyuk in every single category above, most importantly full-PPR PPG and expected full-PPR PPG. While these are the most important metrics for fantasy football, their efficiency metrics paint a similar story. When healthy, Samuel was the clear No. 1 for Purdy and the 49ers' offense.

From the table above, we can see that Samuel outperformed Aiyuk in target share, yards per route run, and targets per route run. He was more effective and efficient and also the more targeted and fantasy-productive receiver. The reason was that Purdy simply refused to throw the ball downfield, which helped Samuel since he's not known as a deep-threat receiver.

Samuel's average depth of target was just 6.1 yards compared to Aiyuk's 14.1 during this four-game sample. In regards to Purdy's play style, the way the team utilizes Samuel and his strengths are just a more natural fit for Purdy. According to PlayerProfiler, Purdy had just 15 deep targets in 2022, which is roughly 2.5 per game. This would've ranked 33rd among 34 qualifying quarterbacks. Looking at Aiyuk's 14.1 average depth of target, this makes him a bad fit alongside Purdy.

Purdy averaged a 6.8 average depth of target this past season. Among 39 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, his average ranked 32nd, according to Sports Info Solutions. This further explains his preference for Samuel and paints a problematic picture for Aiyuk. There are other concerns not specific to Purdy but the San Francisco offense in general.

Passing Volume Concerns

Since 2019 when Samuel was drafted, the 49ers have ranked 29th (2019), 16th (2020), 29th (2021), and 26th (2022) in pass attempts. In five out of Shanahan's six seasons as the 49ers' head coach, there's been a volume concern. In his first year, which was back in 2017, they ranked second in pass attempts. This was the only time they were in the top 50% of the league. Injuries at quarterback have certainly played a role, but the 49ers have very much leaned on their rushing attack.

This was the operating stance when Purdy came under center as well. Even if we include Week 13 when Purdy didn't start but attempted 37 passes, the team averaged just 25 pass attempts in his eight appearances where he played over 80% of the snaps. That average would've ranked 30th last season, just barely ahead of the 24.4 attempts the Falcons averaged. He attempted fewer than 30 passes in five of his eight appearances.

That sort of limited team passing volume creates another barrier for Aiyuk because of his utilization as the team's downfield target. With Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle also demanding targets, we're already dealing with a very limited amount to go around. If Aiyuk continues to be utilized more downfield, these targets tend to be more volatile from week to week and could create significant consistency concerns for him in 2023.

Final Answer -- Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk?

Some of these concerns that we've already painted for Aiyuk are reflected in his current price. Aiyuk is currently being drafted as the WR30 in Underdog drafts with an ADP of 57.1. This will cost fantasy managers a mid-fifth-round pick. Samuel, on the other hand, is being drafted much higher. Fantasy managers are taking him as the WR17 with an ADP of 34.0 right at the end of the third round.

There are reasons to be concerned about the price tags of both of these players. This becomes a simple math equation. A team with under 30 pass attempts per game cannot support a top-three running back as well as three pass-catchers (Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle). There's quite simply a lack of volume.

While Purdy was one of the more efficient quarterbacks last season, fantasy managers shouldn't expect that to continue in 2023, just by sheer regression to the mean. Mr. Irrelevant had a 7.6% touchdown rate last season. Patrick Mahomes, for reference, was at 6.3%, and this led the NFL since Purdy did not qualify. Mahomes had 41 touchdowns on 648 attempts. Purdy and his 7.6% touchdown rate would've had 49.

Based on the numbers from last season, fantasy managers should expect Samuel to have a more productive fantasy season and be the more valuable asset from a points-scoring standpoint. However, when it comes to both players, fantasy managers may be best avoiding them both at their respective costs.

Fantasy managers can draft Amari Cooper or Keenan Allen just a few picks later than Samuel. These receivers seem to be a safer bet for increased targets and have a more realistic ceiling. Cooper had a fantastic season last year. If Deshaun Watson returns to his former self, he could be an excellent value.

Keenan Allen is simply one of the best values in all of fantasy football right now. He's a top-12 wide receiver currently available at the turn of Rounds 3/4. Fantasy managers could also pivot to true elite quarterback options in Joe Burrow or Justin Fields.

As for Aiyuk, fantasy managers could pivot to Marquise Brown, who operated as a top-15 wide receiver prior to his ankle injury. With DeAndre Hopkins released, he should be a target hog similar to those first six weeks of last season. While it appears Samuel will be the more productive player strictly on a PPG basis, Aiyuk may be the better investment for fantasy managers.

This is because if Kittle or Samuel were to miss time, something they've both been prone to do from time to time, Aiyuk could provide a plus value to his ADP. Even if that doesn't happen, Aiyuk isn't quite as risky as Samuel by virtue of being two rounds cheaper. This San Francisco offense could once again be very deadly, but due to its lower volume and how many talented pass-catchers they have, all of their ceilings will be capped as long as they're all healthy.

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