RADIO
Ben Lively is a fantasy baseball waiver wire pickup for pitchers heading into Week 12 (2023). Target Lively as a free agent pitcher on the waiver wire.
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 36% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: One of the more surprising developments of the 2023 season is the breakout of 31-year-old journeyman Ben Lively as a starter for the Cincinnati Reds.
He came into the league as the 135th pick of the 2013 draft pick by the Reds. He rose to Double-A ball before being traded to the Phillies for veteran Marlon Byrd in the 2014 offseason. He debuted with Philadelphia in 2017, with a 4.26 ERA in 15 major-league starts that season. He started the 2018 season with a 6.84 ERA in five starts before being waived by Philly. He then bounced around from Kansas City, Arizona, and the KBO, with little success at each stop.
He returned to Cincinnati as a farmhand in late-2022 and resigned that November. He opened the 2023 season with a 2.23 ERA in five starts with Triple-A Louisville. After the demotion of Luis Cessa, the Reds brought up Ben Lively to the major-league squad as a bulk reliever. He then slid into the rotation after two solid multi-inning appearances.
He hasn't looked back since, with a 3.33 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, a .193 opponent batting average, and 1.03 WHIP through four starts.
When you look at his stuff, to say it doesn't jump off the page is an understatement. His 91 mph fastball, 85 mph changeup, 80 mph slider, and 76 mph curveball are well below average in velocity and movement.
Despite that, he's confounded major league hitters this season. He's had that success because of his ability to locate his pitches. An average slider can become incredibly dangerous if located correctly, and he's done just that with a 48.1% strikeout rate and a .072 wOBA on his slider.
Ben Lively, Wicked 81mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/EeXtKM3aBt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2023
That isn't to say it'll all be sunshine and roses for the rest of the season. There are obvious signs of regression, with an 88.9% left-on-base rate and 4.72 FIP being the most significant. There's a solid chance he gets rocked in a couple of games this season if things don't go his way.
Despite that, Lively should stay in the Reds rotation when Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo return in the next few months. He'll get the start today against a scuffling Cardinals offense that holds a .668 OPS through six games this month. Start him today, stream him regularly, and keep him rostered in deeper leagues.
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