The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 12

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to...for now.

You can tell we're much deeper in the season as half of this week's players are currently rostered in more than 85% of leagues. That's a testament to how many top-tier talents have struggled so far in 2023 but we still need to keep a rational train of thought and remember that there's around 60% of the season to go.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Christopher Morel - 2B/3B/SS/OF, Chicago Cubs - 61% rostered

Morel was one of the most popular pickups a month ago. He's now one of the most dropped players over the last fortnight. After hitting .330/.425/.730 with 11 homers in 29 Triple-A games, the Cubs called up Morel. And boy, did he get off to a hot start.

Morel homered nine times in his first 12 games with the Cubs and then went 2-for-32 over his next 11 games. Morel then had more production in yesterday's game than he had in the previous two weeks. On the season, Morel is now hitting .259/.323/.647 with 10 homers, 18 RBI, 19 runs, and one stolen base (24 games).

When a player has such glaring splits over certain timeframes, I normally get asked which is the real version of the player. That's something you'll see later on and something that's been mentioned in previous editions. And my answer is generally the same: this is the real version, all of it.

Morel is one of the streakier hitters in baseball and we got a glimpse of that last year when he debuted in the majors. In 113 games in 2022, Morel hit .235/.308/.433 with 16 homers, 47 RBI, 55 runs, and 10 steals. When he's good, Morel is a fantasy monster. When he's bad......well, he's useless in fantasy.

Pretty much every player has ups and downs throughout a season but Morel's peaks are higher than most while his troughs are deeper than most. Below is Morel's rolling 10-game average of his batting average and slugging percentage last year.

If you want it displayed differently, below shows Morel's numbers by month last year.

Morel has started just five of the Cubs' last 10 games. Although out of nowhere, Morel hit third in the lineup yesterday, having hit at the bottom of the lineup throughout most of his hot streak. That may have triggered something as he went 2-f0r-4 with a home run. Whether that sticks remains to be seen.

If it does stick, Morel will have to repeat yesterday's performance in the coming days with Cody Bellinger on a rehab assignment and close to a return. It also means someone on the Cubs roster will need to be demoted. It feels like the choice will be between Morel and Nick Madrigal.

Ordinarily, when we see a player like Morel who can make such a big impact in short timeframes, I suggest holding them. Sure, you can bench them and ride out the slumps ready for their next hot streak. But Morel's playing time has been disappearing and it's pretty hard to get on a hot streak when you're on the bench.

Yesterday's performance could kick-start a run of eight homers in 10 games but Morel could just as easily go 1-for-13 next week and only start three games. At least anyone who has held on to Morel this long got some reward for their patience last night.

Verdict: Morel's rostership is dropping like his batting average and I suspect he might not be in the majors by the end of next week. Your window to trade him has gone so you might as well look for a replacement on your teams now rather than dragging out the inevitable break-up any longer.

Brian Anderson - 3B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers - 28% rostered

Speaking of hitters who got off to a hot start this year but faded since. After spending his entire professional career with the Marlins organization, Anderson headed to Milwaukee this offseason and certainly endeared himself to the Brewers fans early.

Anderson hit three homers in his first five games and was hitting .286/.379/.531 after 15 games. Now, after 63 games, Anderson is hitting .233/.332/.391 with eight homers, 32 RBI, 29 runs, and no stolen bases. That's more in line with Anderson's career numbers.

Anderson hasn't homered since May 24 (16 games) and that streak could continue for a while longer as he came into the season with 57 homers and a .256/.341/.410 slash line in 531 career MLB games.

Anderson's Statcast profile is an interesting one. You would think a hitter with a good Barrel% (11.0%) but poor Average Exit Velocity (85.7 mph) is simply weak. But Anderson has an elite arm, so there's got to be a bit of muscle in there.

I jest about the strength but although the defensive numbers don't count in fantasy, they will help to keep Anderson in the lineup when his offensive contributions are lacking. And the reality is, Anderson is a below-average hitter.

There are 47 hitters in baseball to have tallied 32 RBI and 29 runs this season. But 41 of them have a better batting average and 39 have more home runs than Anderson while 35 of them have also picked up at least one stolen base.

Verdict: This year, Anderson ranks 28th among third basemen and 68th among outfielders. That's barely rosterable in standard leagues and certainly not worth a second look in shallower leagues. His everyday role and ability to tally RBI and runs make him an ok option in deeper leagues but that's all Anderson is.

Graham Ashcraft - SP, Cincinnati Reds - 16% rostered

I'm not going to dwell on this choice much. I'd committed to confirming Ashcraft was droppable after his 10-run shellacking last weekend against the Brewers. Then came his abbreviated start on Thursday in which Ashcraft left in the third inning against the Dodgers after being hit on the leg by a comebacker.

Ashcraft intimated he would be ready to make his next start and the injury has been called a calf contusion, so nothing serious. But the Reds still placed Ashcraft on the IL, likely to just give him some time to get his act together.

After 13 starts this year, Ashcraft has a 3-5 W-L record, 6.78 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 50 Ks (65.0 IP). Among qualified starters (64), only Jordan Lyles has a higher ERA (6.84) and only four have a lower K% than Ashcraft (16.8%).

In what seems to be a theme this week, Ashcraft did get off to a hot start this year with a 2.00 ERA after his first six starts (36.0 IP), five of which were quality starts. His 4.34 xFIP suggested regression was coming but no one expected Ashcraft to put up a 12.72 ERA over his next seven starts.

Verdict: Nothing in Ashcraft's underlying numbers suggests to me that he'll return from the IL as a worthwhile fantasy option. I do believe he'll put up better numbers than we saw in May but other than deeper dynasty leagues, I don't see enough in Ashcraft's profile to warrant rostering him. Even with him being on the IL, there are probably better options to stash on there.

Hold For Now

Nolan Gorman - 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals - 88% rostered

Stop me if you've heard it before, but we have a power hitter who strikes out a lot and tends to be streaky. Since May 22 (over the last three weeks), Gorman is hitting .170/.231/.305 with two homers, seven RBI, seven runs, and one stolen base (17 games).

Gorman has a season line of .263/.345/.540 with 15 homers, 46 RBI, 26 runs, and four stolen bases. That has left him ranked 38th overall on Yahoo! (fourth among second baseman and sixth among third baseman). Only eight players have more RBI than Gorman this year and two of them are on the IL.

Over the last 14 days, Gorman ranks 394th on Yahoo! Since March 22, he's had a 38.5% K% (24.8% K% prior) while his 7.7% BB% is down from 12.7% during that timeframe. These recent struggles have left fantasy managers wondering what is the real version of Gorman.

The reality is, this is the real version of Gorman (stop me if you've heard that before). The complete version. This is what he does, like many others with similar profiles. Below is a breakdown of Gorman's numbers since 2021 throughout the minor leagues and following his call-up to the majors last year.

From the above, the most different line was last year's MLB stint. Obviously, during a player's first go in the majors, you expect some struggles and growing pains. That's what we saw last year. This year, Gorman's numbers are more in line with what we saw in the minors.

And Gorman's numbers this year also complement his scouting report. Prior to the 2022 season, MLB Pipeline gave Gorman a 50 grade for hitting and a 60 grade for power. These are based on the 20-80 scouting grade where 80 is excellent, 20 is poor, and 50 is average.

So Gorman was expected to have an average hit tool. A .263 batting average is a bit better than the league average (.247) while his 15 homers in 59 games are very good and what you'd expect from someone with a 60 grade for power.

The Cardinals will sit Gorman against some left-handed pitchers (LHP) but when he starts, he's batting third in the lineup. Any missed games will be offset by his prime spot in the batting order.

Overall, Gorman is a prime example of needing to look at a player's complete numbers, not just the last two or three weeks. He will have cold streaks like most players with his profile. Over the course of the season, you have to take the hot with the cold. Unless this recent slump lasts until July, I'm not thinking about dropping him.

Jeff McNeil - 2B/OF, New York Mets - 74% rostered

I flip-flopped as to whether McNeil should be included here or in the 'Worth Dropping And Replacing' section. That's in part due to the fact that McNeil is someone I never look at drafting and never roster. But I'm not going to let my own bias sway me and I'm prepared to say McNeil can be held......for now.

Let's look at what McNeil has done so far. In 65 games, he has two homers, 17 RBI, 29 runs, and three stolen bases while hitting .275/.352/.343. To get an understanding as to why I never draft McNeil, I present to you his numbers extrapolated across 162 games since 2021.

I'm not including the 2020 shortened season numbers. I think at this point, it's safe to say the 23 homers he hit in 133 games during the 2019 season is a complete outlier. McNeil has hit 25 homers in his other 448 MLB games, so I just can't take his 2019 seriously.

What McNeil is doing this year is about on par with what he's produced across the last two seasons. Considering he came into this season with a career .307 batting average, I will admit that .275 is a bit unexpected. But that was also part of the reason why I wasn't in on McNeil this year.

In simple terms, McNeil has to hit ~.300 to provide fantasy value. There's next to no power and speed from him. If he's not hitting for a high average, his RBI and run totals will be down and you're getting little production from him, especially considering how many of each he tallied last year while hitting .326.

You may be wondering why I'm not advocating dropping McNeil after reading this. In truth, I wouldn't think twice if you did drop him in all but deeper leagues. But if you drafted him, he's only a small improvement away from providing you with what you drafted him for.

I'm not suggesting McNeil will do that given he has a .269 xBA, .360 xSLG, and .318 xwOBA (.317 wOBA). But he's a career .300+ hitter, so I'm not betting against him hitting .300 over the remainder of the season.

If his average continues to be subdued, what are you getting from McNeil and is there someone on waivers who can help? As the season progresses, you will find specific categories you can make the most ground up in your standings whereas McNeil likely isn't helping in that regard.

Patrick Sandoval - SP, Los Angeles Angels - 58% rostered

Sandoval is similar to McNeil in that I was on the brink of including him in the 'Worth Dropping And Replacing' section. But I was swayed to not say Sandoval is a flat-out drop due to one main reason. First, let's look at Sandoval and what he's done this year.

In 12 starts, Sandoval has a 3-6 W-L record, 4.52 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 48 Ks (53.2 IP). What really stands out is the lack of strikeouts with Sandoval's 16.9% K% massively down from his career 24.1% K%. And that leads me nicely onto Sandoval's arsenal.

But before that, a quick note on last night's start against the Mariners. Sandoval gave up five runs in five innings on a season-high 10 hits. Fair to say that's pretty dreadful. But he tallied a season-high eight strikeouts and didn't walk anyone, so there was at least one positive to come from it.

Back to Sandoval's pitch mix. The below graphic shows Sandoval's pitch usage throughout his career. As you can see, after throwing a career-low in fastballs during the 2022 season, they've crept up again this year.

The reason his increased fastball usage isn't good is how badly it has fared in recent times. The below table shows the numbers on Sandoval's three main pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup) last year and this year.

We can see from this that Sandoval's fastball is the worst of the trio. It was last year and it is this year, hence any increased usage of it won't be conducive to positive results. The other noticeable issue we can see is how poorly Sandoval's changeup and slider have performed this year.

Last year, they were his two wipe-out pitches. This year, they've not been and that is why his K% has plummeted. And for our final graph of the Sandoval presentation, looking at the vertical movement of his pitches this year, both the changeup and slider have declined considerably.

Somehow, Sandoval needs to find a way to improve the slider and changeup, get more movement on them, and lean on both more. Whether he's able to do this is another matter but I'm not ruling that out. If he can find a way, Sandoval should be able to repeat last year's numbers over the remainder of this season.

For now, I'm probably not starting Sandoval in anything but the deeper leagues unless he has a really nice matchup. But if his slider and changeup do not show signs of improvement, then it's hard to see how Sandoval has any real success and he'd be a safe drop in pretty much all but the deepest leagues.

Now for the main reason I'm saying Sandoval isn't a flat-out drop. Starting pitchers have been dropping like flies. Depending on what format and site you play on, around 25 starting pitchers with an ADP lower than 250 are on the IL. Just by being healthy and putting up a ~4.50 ERA, Sandoval has value.

On the Hot Seat

Sandy Alcantara - SP, Miami Marlins - 97% rostered

I've resisted including Alcantara on The Cut List this season despite his struggles. Last Sunday, a couple more people asked about him and I continued to say "he's a hold, he'll come good, don't worry too much." Then Sunday afternoon's start against Oakland happened and I couldn't resist any longer.

Before we go on, I'm still maintaining "he's a hold, he'll come good, don't worry too much." But he's certainly worth looking deeper into and I'm sure some people will want to know why I'm still so bullish on last year's NL Cy Young winner.

Yesterday's outing was a great reminder of what Alcantara is still capable of, allowing just one run over seven innings. Just the four strikeouts weren't great but it was a nice bounce-back from last weekend's dud.

After 13 starts this year, Alcantara has a 2-5 W-L record, 4.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 71 Ks (83.1 IP). A far cry from last year's 2.28 ERA. It's been pointed out that his Statcast profile is very average and I agree with that. But as I say regularly, it's not the be-all-and-end-all in assessing a player.

Alcantara's 4.22 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA suggest he's been unlucky, but still not to the point he should have a sub-3.00 ERA. Nor is his .284 BABIP particularly harsh given the .268 career BABIP Alcantara had prior to this year (and .262 BABIP last year).

Part of the reason Alcantara has such an elevated ERA has stemmed from an inability to limit the damage. Last Sunday's start against the Athletics was a prime example where he completed seven innings and all five runs allowed came in one inning. He's had a total of 11 innings this year where he's allowed more than one run.

That leads me to Alcantara's Left On Base Rate (LOB%). Among the 64 qualified pitchers, Alcantara's 58.2% LOB% is the second-lowest, with only Jordan Lyles (49.4% LOB%) having a worse one. Alcantara had a 75.7% LOB% over the previous two seasons combined and a 74.7% LOB% in his career prior to this year.

That seems to be something that's down to the small sample and you'd have to think that it would normalize over the remainder of the season. The next thing I want to look at is Alcantara's arsenal.

He's still throwing an even pitch mix with less than a 7.0% difference between his most thrown (sinker) and least thrown pitch (slider). But it's Alcantara's changeup I want to focus on here.

The above graph shows the wOBA against Alcantara's changeup per start this year. You'll notice the second start is the only time this year it's had a wOBA of less than .200 against it. That is notable as across the whole last season, Alcantara's changeup had a .169 wOBA against it.

Alcantara can feel a little aggrieved by the numbers against his changeup this year and I've put the actual and expected numbers for the pitch over the last two seasons in the below table.

Sure, there was a little luck last year but Alcnatara's changeup still graded out as an elite pitch. This year, it's been mediocre and unlucky. If we just look at the Stuff+ ratings, the changeup had a 130 Stuff+ rating last year. This year, it's 106.

Whether or not Alcantara can get the pitch back to something resembling last year remains to be seen. There's little difference in the movement and spin on his changeup between last year and this year, so I'm not sure it's something Alcantara can fix in the season. But it was such a good pitch last year that I can't bet against it.

Whatever the reason for Alcantara's struggles, I still can't bring myself to justify dropping last year's NL Cy Young winner in any league. A pitcher with a 2.71 ERA over 434.1 IP across the previous two seasons should stay rostered throughout 2023. Like any struggling star, you won't get enough in return, so trading him doesn't make sense.

All you can do is ride this out and reap the rewards for your patience when Alcantara inevitably finds his form and returns to being the Marlins' ace. Yesterday was the first step in that regard.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Trea Turner - SS, Philadelphia Phillies - 99% rostered

I've resisted including Turner in recent weeks. Most of the time when I'm asked about what to do with Turner, their manager isn't considering dropping him. And that's your answer. You're not dropping him. But what do you do with your first-round draft pick?

First, let's look at how bad he has actually been. Turner hit two homers on Monday but he's still only got a .242/.285/.389 slash line with seven homers, 20 RBI, 33 runs, and eight stolen bases (63 games). He's ranked 200th overall and 19th at shortstop (according to Yahoo!), with it set to be Turner's worst season since he was a rookie.

After his power outburst on Monday, Turner is now on a 162-game pace of 18 homers, 51 RBI, 85 runs, and 21 steals. Obviously, that's not what you drafted Turner for but at least he's helping in some categories and isn't just a dead roster spot. And maybe Monday's performance could kick-start his season.

Because as we can see below, there isn't any real reason to believe he'll return first-round value this year other than hoping he can perform like his pre-2023 self.

All of what we've seen makes me wonder if Turner is playing hurt. Or he's just struggling with the new team on a huge contract. Or playing in the World Baseball Classic has contributed to his struggles with him having an unusual preseason. Nothing we can quantify or know for sure, of course.

What we do know is Turner has so far been a huge bust. But you still can't drop him. And trading him? There's not much point. You won't get much in return and even if Turner picks things up a bit, he'll end up having a better year than whomever you get in return.

The reality is, all you can do is ride things out. If you have a good replacement, benching Turner is fine until we see some consistent signs of life. The problem is you risk missing out on performances like Monday when he's on your bench.

But his talent and past successes make it nearly impossible to justify dropping him, especially as he's still a top-200 player in standard leagues. The fact Turner is hitting .296/.345/.556 should also give fantasy managers some optimism that he can start providing considerably more than he has so far.

Manny Machado - 3B, San Diego Padres - 98% rostered

I could easily write "see Trea Turner" here and it's pretty much the same thing. Machado wasn't quite a first-round draft pick for the most part but he was generally an early mid-second-rounder. And again, he hasn't come close to providing value on his ADP.

Machado missed two-and-a-half weeks with a hand injury, his first IL stint since 2014. On the year, he is hitting .249/.298/.392 with six homers, 21 RBI, 24 runs, and two stolen bases (48 games). Given Machado fractured his hand, forcing him to miss time, we can't use that as an excuse for his struggles.

Since returning from the IL, Machado has gone 11-for-33 with three extra-base hits. Five of those hits (and two extra-base hits) have come at Coors Field this weekend, so that may have skewed things a bit but it's encouraging nonetheless.

Machado currently has career worsts in K% (21.0%), Barrel% (6.3%), and Hard-Hit% (41.0%) to go along with career lows in Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage. On the bright side, Machado's 6.5% BB% isn't a career-low, just the lowest it's been since 2014.

So what are fantasy managers to do with Machado? Well, see Trea Turner.....you're not going to get anything decent in return and you can't write off Machado given what he's produced during his career and in recent seasons. All you can do is hold and hope. And this month has at least given us hope.

I will offer another crumb of comfort. And it is a crumb. In 2021, Machado ended May with a .233/.328/.403 slash line, six homers, 31 RBI, 25 runs, and six stolen bases (48 games). Only marginally better than what he had done before hitting the IL this year.

From June 1, Machado hit .299/.356/.528 with 22 homers, 75 RBI, 67 runs, and six stolen bases (105 games). I'm not suggesting we'll see a repeat this year but at least we know it's possible and he's certainly trending towards repeating that. So if you wanted a bit of hope for Machado this year, there it is!

Willson Contreras - C, St. Louis Cardinals - 87% rostered

Contreras' inclusion stems from a recency bias. In 59 games, he's tallied seven homers, 27 RBI, 24 runs, and five stolen bases with a .211/.299/.366 slash line. That's enough to make him the 11th-ranked catcher in fantasy. Over the last 30 days, he's ranked 22nd at the position, and over the last 14 days, he's ranked 30th.

As I say in the intro: "A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone."  Why am I not really concerned about rostering Contreras?

Well, go and take a look at your waiver wire, filter by 'catcher', and then tell me which of the available catchers you would rather roster than Contreras. I'd be guessing at none. As someone who rosters Contreras in a couple of leagues, I know this to be the case.

Then there's Contreras' track record. If we look over the last two seasons, how many catchers hit 20+ homers in 2021 and 2022? The answer is three, with Contreras of course being one of that trio. Contreras also ranks third among catchers for wRC+ (121) between 2019-2022.

At such a weak position in fantasy, Contreras has been a rock for fantasy managers. And this year, despite having a mediocre fantasy line, there's reason for optimism. Below are Contreras' expected numbers so far along with some contact metrics and where they rank among the 19 catchers with a minimum of 150 plate appearances.

We can not only see that Contreras has been unlucky, but he's still making some of the best contact among his peers. Keibert Ruiz is the only catcher who has a bigger difference between their expected stats and actual stats.

Despite the Cardinals being a hot mess for most of this year, they've still scored the tied 11th-most runs (301). Contreras has mainly hit fifth in the lineup, with some starts at third and fourth. As long as he continues to hit in the heart of the lineup, those RBI and runs will keep coming.

And Contreras ranks in the top 10 among catchers for RBI and runs. He also happens to rank in the top 10 for homers and is third in stolen bases. He's contributing across the board except in batting average, which should be considerably better than it is. That should normalize over the course of the season.

I get that May was rough but Contreras has already homered twice in June. Given how unsettled things were for him and the Cardinals last month when they almost made Contreras a scapegoat for their pitching woes, it's no surprise he struggled.

Things have settled, Contreras' last 12 starts have all come as the catcher and maybe the results are starting to show. If you rode with Contreras through the difficult May period, you've probably bore witness to Contreras' worst month of the year and should now sit back and enjoy the rest of his season.

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