George Pickens 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In Or Out?

Rob takes a deep dive into George Pickens's fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023.

George Pickens is a fantasy football player who elicits a variety of feelings. Some argue about his draft capital, early declare, and solid rookie season, believing he will dethrone Diontae Johnson. Others examine his efficiency metrics from his rookie season and anticipate him being a boom-or-bust player on a weekly basis. They think he could be a headache to roster and someone to avoid altogether.

You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

• Travis Etienne: In or Out Series Edition
• J.K. Dobbins: In or Out Series Edition
• Kyle Pitts: In or Out Series Edition

Earlier this offseason, Pickens was actually being drafted ahead of Johnson in Underdog drafts. However, that has recently changed, yet Pickens remains a perplexing player for fantasy managers. We will delve deep into his fantasy football value to determine whether you should be in or out on him this season. Don't forget, as the draft season approaches, use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

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Don’t Be Fooled By George Pickens’ Highlights

We can all succumb to the allure of some truly impressive highlights. It's impossible not to have favorite players to root for, even if they don't play for your hometown team. Pickens undoubtedly made enough remarkable plays as a rookie to have that effect on fantasy managers. Honestly, can you blame us? After all, we play this game for fun!

Unfortunately, as mesmerizing and extraordinary as most of these plays are, fantasy managers don't receive any bonus points for curb appeal. What remains is the task of analyzing all the other plays and statistics that Pickens has accumulated on film and in the record books. These highlights only provide a glimpse of Pickens' 2022 season, so we mustn’t let them excessively influence our final evaluation of his fantasy value. That being said, some of those catches are absurd, and he's simply a thrilling player to watch and root for.

What Do The Numbers Say?

As amazing as the highlights are, the numbers paint a different picture. It is important to emphasize that Pickens was just a rookie, and rookies often require time to develop. Additionally, his 2022 NFL season marked his return to football after tearing his ACL during his final collegiate season in 2021.

To gather informative data to help us make a decision about Pickens, we will focus on a specific number of games from last season. Firstly, only the games after the Chase Claypool trade were considered. Furthermore, only the games in which Kenny Pickett played the entire game were included in this analysis. The one start where Pickett played just 15% of the snaps was excluded from these numbers. This provided us with a sample size of seven games, comprising Weeks 10-13 and 16-18.

Player	TPG	RPG	RYPG	RZ Targets
G, Pickens	4.9	3.0	47.4	2
D, Johnson	7.7	3.9	47.0	8
P, Freiermuth	6.3	4.0	47.4	7

Upon examining the table, several concerning elements become apparent regarding the numbers we see above. Pickens was clearly a distant third not only in targets per game (TPG) but also in total red zone (RZ) targets during this seven-game sample. Interestingly, this contradicts what we observed in their fantasy football output. This is the main reason for the questions surrounding Pickens and which pass-catcher fantasy managers should prioritize this season.

Player	Full-PPR PPG	Expected Full-PPR PPG	TDs
G, Pickens	11.5	10.3	3
D, Johnson	8.7	11.7	0
P, Freiermuth	8.6	15.4	0

Surprisingly, Pickens actually outscored Johnson and Pat Freiermuth in this seven-game sample by nearly three full points. However, when we examine their expected points per game (PPG), we obtain an entirely different perspective.

While Pickens scored three touchdowns, he only had two red zone targets and a mere 34 overall targets. In comparison, Johnson had eight red zone targets and 54 total targets, while Freiermuth had seven red zone targets and 44 total targets. However, both failed to score, which raises skepticism about Pickens' average PPG.

Player	TS %	AYPG	aDot	RR %	YPRR	TPRR
G, Pickens	16.0%	71.1	14.6	87.6%	1.51	15%
D, Johnson	25.5%	76.9	10.0	92.8%	1.42	23%
P, Freiermuth	20.8%	52.4	8.3	75.3%	1.76	23%

Unfortunately, the numbers game doesn't favor Pickens. His target share (TS) and targets per route run (TPRR) averages lagged significantly behind Johnson and Freiermuth. This indicated that he received Pickett's attention no more than the third most. This leads to the question of how confident we can be that Pickett can support not just one or two, but three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers.

One notable number from the table above is Pickens' average depth of target (aDot) of 14.6 yards. This figure presents several issues. Firstly, Pickett averaged only 7.5 intended air yards per attempt, placing him 20th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. According to PlayerProfiler, he averaged just 3.15 deep ball attempts per game, ranking 28th. Pickett showed reluctance to throw deep passes, which poses a problem for Pickens since his routes primarily involved running deep. We will delve deeper into this aspect shortly.

The high aDot introduces a considerable amount of volatility. Downfield targets are more challenging to complete and contribute to a boom-or-bust nature. When combined with Pickett's reluctance to throw deep, it creates a problematic situation.

What Does the Film Say?

The film review provides a mixed assessment, offering glimpses of potential but also presenting some warning signs. Utilizing the incredible work of Reception Perception and Pickens' rookie profile can provide us with a better understanding of Pickens' on-field performance.

There are certainly some positives to take away from the charts above. Pickens performed above average on the more downfield routes such as the nine, the post, and the corner. However, he fell below average on most of the other routes. This is concerning because it could potentially limit him to being a player similar to Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Gabriel Davis. There’s nothing inherently wrong with either player, but they tend to have more value for their NFL teams rather than our fantasy teams.

Another concern is the high frequency with which the Pittsburgh offense had Pickens running these deeper routes. He ran a nine route on 32.4% of the Reception Perception sample. This rate is likely to negatively impact his fantasy production. Matt Harmon also raised similar concerns in Pickens' profile, stating the following:

“If you’re looking to explain away Pickens’ poor success rates, you can point to the incredibly vertical nature of his route. He ran a nine on a whopping 32.4% of his sampled routes. That is nuts. Anything over 30% is borderline unreasonable. When you also add that he ran a corner on nearly 10% of his routes, it’s really wild how the Steelers didn’t add more diversity to his route tree. Pickens got next to no work going over the middle. The slant, dig and post made up less than a  quarter of his routes. You almost never see this at the NFL level.”

Could this change as Pickens develops as a player? Absolutely, but it remains a major red flag until we witness that progression. The Steelers essentially used Pickens as a one-dimensional player. Fortunately for him and fantasy managers, he was able to score on five of his 55 touches. This rate should not be expected to repeat itself in the upcoming season.

The reality is that the Steelers may have assigned Pickens to the role he played last season because it aligns with his strengths. Matt Harmon from Reception Perception also mentioned this in Pickens' rookie profile:

“His success rate vs. zone coverage scores is extremely troubling. I can’t really put it any other way. A 68% success rate is destined to put him toward the bottom among receivers sampled from the 2022 season and puts him in a strange company for projecting his future. It certainly doesn’t speak to the ceiling some people want to ascribe to him.”

This suggests that Pittsburgh had him run numerous vertical routes due to his struggles with the intricacies of getting open against different coverages. Regardless, the film review presents a cautionary tale similar to the analysis of the numbers. Undoubtedly, Pickens will make several highlight-reel catches in 2023. This is because the routes he frequently runs often involve contested catch situations. However, the question remains: How does any of this translate to success in fantasy football?

Are You In or Out?

Pickens is currently being drafted as the WR39 on Underdog with an ADP of 73.3. This requires fantasy managers to use an early sixth-round pick on him. Pickens’ numbers and film review from his rookie season are concerning. There are also major concerns with Pickett at quarterback. For these reasons, fantasy managers should be out on Pickens at his current price.

Drafting his teammate Diontae Johnson (WR38, 70.3) or Tennessee Titans WR Treylon Burks (WR36, 71.1) is a much better option at a similar price tag. If you’re looking for a cheaper receiver option, pivot to Brandin Cooks (WR42, 82.7), Rashod Bateman (WR44, 87.8), or even Courtland Sutton (WR48, 96.0). All three offer similar or even more upside at a reduced price.

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