Shane Bieber: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

So far this season, this column has focused exclusively on potential waiver wire adds. However, that's not our sole focus. Sometimes, we look at established stars who aren't performing as expected and try to figure out whether a turnaround is in the works.

On the surface, Shane Bieber has been solid: 4-3 with a 3.04 ERA over 71 IP. Unfortunately, his 16.8 K% is well below the expectations of his fantasy managers, his win total is light compared to preseason expectations, and his ERA estimators are all substantially higher than his actual mark.

Should you try to sell for pennies on the dollar if you have him, or is it time to be a Bieber buyer? Let's take a closer look.

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Shane Bieber Getting Hit Around

You wouldn't know it from looking at his surface stats, but Bieber has been getting hit hard this year. Hitters have a .255 average against him thus far, and Statcast says they deserve an average of .293 based on their launch angles and exit velocities. It's difficult to succeed as a big league starter with nearly a .300 average against, so this is alarming for a guy seen as an ace.

Baseball Savant calculates expected ERAs for pitchers based on the quality of contact against them, strikeouts, and walks, and Bieber's sits at 4.90. Older models like Bieber a little more, but his 4.03 FIP and 4.36 xFIP both suggest that he's due for nasty regression.

Shane Bieber is working some kinda magic to have the success he's had this year, bc most of his starts have been pretty rough in terms of his ability to generate whiffs and weak contact. pic.twitter.com/OpurjFLKkZ

— Joey Belle (@TribeFanMcC) May 28, 2023

Bieber is currently beating his peripherals based on favorable "luck metrics:" 9.9% HR/FB against a career mark of 13.1%, 80.6% strand rate against a career mark of 77.4%, and a .282 BABIP (.303 career). Sadly, nothing under the hood suggests Bieber deserves any of these numbers, so we have to assume his ERA will increase moving forward barring significant skill improvements.

Shane Bieber Forgot What Strikeouts Are

Strikeouts are a key input to all ERA estimators and generally serve as a standalone fantasy category, so we need our arms to get Ks. Bieber's K% has been in decline since his otherworldly 2020 season, going from 41.1 to 33.1 to 25 to 16.8. Bieber was at least above-average as recently as last season, but this year he's morphed into a pitch-to-contact guy. Why is that happening?

One reason is a much less effective fastball, going from a 5.3 SwStr% and 65.4 Zone% in 2022 to a 2 SwStr% and 64.9% Zone% in 2023. As to why Bieber's heater is less effective, this author has no idea. Bieber averaged 91.5 mph on the radar gun last year and this, so there's no obvious velocity dip to point to. Bieber hasn't reached the peak velocities he once did, topping out at 93 after hitting 94.4 last season. Still, Bieber was never a power arm to begin with.

Likewise, Bieber's spin rate doesn't seem to be the issue. His average spin rate has increased from 2,206 RPM in 2022 to 2,216 this year, and his active spin rates are virtually identical as well (96.5% last year, 96.1 this). Bieber is getting less vertical drop on his fastball compared to last season (2.37 ft. vs. 2.69 in 2022), but he averaged 2.66 ft. in his Cy Young season of 2020. His 2020 was substantially better than his 2022, so the fastball drop alone doesn't give us the answer.

Nor is a less effective fastball Bieber's only problem. His slider has always been his money pitch, generating a 21.3 SwStr% and 41.5% chase rate in 2022 on a Zone% of 42%. This year, the Zone% is up to 43.6% but the SwStr% has fallen to 15.7 while the chase rate is down to 33.9. The pitch isn't getting the horizontal break it once did (0.6 ft. in 2022, 0.42 this season), but is that the only reason why?

Bieber's curve has also plummeted in effectiveness, going from a 21.6 SwStr% and 43.1% chase rate in 2022 to 15.3% and 36.8% this year. The pitch's Zone% has declined from 37.9% to 26.3%, likely making it easier for hitters to lay off of it. Bieber is also throwing fewer curves than he used to, going from 17.9% of his repertoire to 11.1%.

Bieber is featuring his cutter more prominently now, throwing it 22.1% of the time after just 13.1% a season ago. Bieber's cutter is performing a little better too, going from a 9.5 SwStr% to a 13.7 SwStr%. Still, it's fair to wonder whether throwing more cutters leads to suboptimal tunneling that helps hitters pick up on his slider and curve more easily.

Bieber's entire arsenal is generating fewer whiffs than it has in the past, and the problem is difficult to pinpoint. Barring the return of his previous stuff, we need to assume that Bieber won't be the strikeout machine he's been before. That's not good for his fantasy value.

The Supporting Cast of Shane Bieber

Pitchers rely on the defenders behind them, their offense, and their bullpen for good chunks of their fantasy value, and Bieber's fantasy managers thought they were in good hands. Cleveland was widely considered the preseason favorite to win the weak AL Central, and Bieber was supposed to feast on a favorable schedule as a result.

That hasn't happened. The Guardians were 23-29 at the time of writing with an offense that refuses to score runs. Naturally, that hurts Bieber's win potential in fantasy.

Statcast grades the club's overall defense at -1 Outs Above Average (OAA), ranking 16th of the league's 30 clubs. However, Bieber himself has two OAA behind him, suggesting that the club's defenders have overperformed for him. That's unlikely to continue, adding another potential area for regression.

Cleveland's bullpen has been solid so far with a 3.12 ERA that ranks fourth in MLB, but its 4.10 FIP (15th) and 4.18 xFIP (14th) are less impressive. The reason for the discrepancy is a .259 BABIP: the lowest mark among all bullpens. Since the club isn't playing superior defense, this number is likely to regress and Bieber will see the relievers behind him cough up more runs. Ouch.

The Verdict on Shane Bieber

Bieber isn't mitigating the contact quality against him, isn't striking anyone out, and doesn't play for a club that figures to boost his fantasy stats. If you can sell based on his name and solid ERA, you should. Otherwise, his managers have to pray that all these red flags don't turn him into a Chump.

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