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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/23/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Each week I write this article, I try to find ways to give you different looks into how to bet. We have covered everything from straight moneylines, game totals, team totals, first-inning run totals, and first-five-inning moneylines. We have even talked about teasers and parlays for less. I hope I've helped you learn how to bet in different ways. Today we will cover another way to bet moneylines and game totals by laddering our bets to maximize profit.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, May 23, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Rockies
O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: MIA -125
MIA: Eury Perez | COL: Austin Gomber
The Marlins will play their second game at Coors Field in as many days. They send their young stud Eury Perez to the mound to face Austin Gomber. Perez has been outstanding in his first two starts going 1-0 with a 3.09 SIERA, 33.3% K, and a 7.7% BB. Austin Gomber, on the other hand, has been abysmal. He is 3-4 with a 5.34 SIERA, 14.9% K, and a 9.2% BB.
The Rockies against right-hand pitching this year are in the bottom ten in baseball. They own an 85 wRC+. On the other hand, the Marlins are a top-ten team in baseball against left-hand pitching with a 115 wRC+. We have a significant mismatch here on the mound and at the plate. Sure, we can just bet the moneyline, but we want to find ways to maximize profit in spots like this.
This is where a ladder can help us. When we bet a ladder, we want to gradually get lower with our units as we go up to minimize risk. I have bet 0.5 units on the Marlins moneyline (-125), 0.4 units on the Marlins at -1 (-105), 0.3 units on the Marlins at -2 (+155), 0.2 units on the Marlins at -3 (+230), and 0.2 units on the Marlins at -4 (+330). If we think the Marlins blow them out, which I do, we can maximize profit this way instead of just taking their moneyline.
Pick: Marlins moneyline ladder, 1.6 total units, DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -230
OAK: Luis Medina | SEA: Marco Gonzales
Luis Medina and Marco Gonzales will battle at T-Mobile Park in Seattle for game two of their series. Medina has a 4.21 SIERA, 20.5% K and a 6.8% BB. This comes with a 2.65 HR/9, the worst on today's slate. Over his first three starts, Medina has given up an average of 4.3 runs. Marco Gonzales has been every bit as bad as Medina. Gonzales has a 5.15 SIERA, 15.3% K and a 8.2% BB. His HR/9 is at 1.17, which is more around the league average. Over his last four starts, Gonzales has given up an average of 4.5 runs.
The Oakland Athletics have surprisingly been excellent against left-hand pitching with a 110 wRC+, .322 wOBA, and a .421 SLG. The Mariners have a 100 wRC+, .308 wOBA, and a .379 SLG this year against right-hand pitching. The A's bullpen is by far and away the worst in baseball, so the Mariners will have opportunities to score runs all game. This is a great environment to see the game total not just go over but get into double-digit runs scored.
This, again, is where we can ladder the game total to maximize profit. Before I give you my final bets for this game, I advise you to be careful with laddering. When I do this, I ensure I do not double the units I bet and stick with 1.5-2 unit bets. Remember, if it doesn't hit, we lose it all if we double down. I will bet another 1.6 units on this ladder as follows. 0.5 units on the game total going over eight runs (-140), 0.4 units on over nine runs (+105), 0.3 units on over ten runs (+160), 0.2 units on over 11 runs (+230), and 0.2 units on over 12 runs (+320).
Pick: Game total ladder, 1.6 total units, DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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