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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, May 21, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 23-19 (-1.13 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Cardinals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: STL +124
LAD: Clayton Kershaw | STL: Jack Flaherty
The Diamondbacks let us down on Friday night, as we finished 1-1. We'll look to bounce back with two plays on this lovely Sunday, starting out in St. Louis.
The visiting Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw (6-3, 2.52 ERA) has seen a decision in each of his starts. He has lost two of his last three, but I'll be backing him here. He projects to a 3.02 SIERA and 28.5% strikeout rate in this one. The Cardinals had dominated left-handed pitching over the past few seasons, and are still good, ranking 11th in wOBA (.336). However, they project to just a .314 wOBA in this one.
On the other hand, the Cardinals will send Jack Flaherty (3-4, 5.24 ERA) to the mound. We unsuccessfully faded Flaherty in his last start against the Brewers, and it's amazing to me that the Cardinals have won two of his last three starts despite his 8.16 ERA across them. He projects to a 4.69 SIERA and 37.45% hard contact rate today against a Dodgers lineup that ranks third in wOBA (.341) and second in wRC+ (116).
A classic run-back spot for us here, and we can get the Dodgers at solid odds (-146) on FanDuel.
Pick: Dodgers Money Line (-146), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.46 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -225
COL: Connor Seabold | TEX: Andrew Heaney
I'll wrap the weekend up back in Texas, where Martin Perez took care of business on Friday night.
I could write basically the same write-up I did then, with Connor Seabold (1-0, 5.14 ERA) taking the mound for the visiting Rockies. He projects to a 5.19 SIERA according to my data model, along with a minuscule 15.2% strikeout rate and 34.87% hard contact rate allowed. The Rangers rank in the same spots against righties in the league, coming in at fifth in wOBA (.336) and third in wRC+ (113). They project to a .359 wOBA today.
The Rangers will be sending another southpaw to the mound, this time in the form of Andrew Heaney (2-3, 4.71 ERA). Heaney is surely due for some positive regression, and projects to a 3.62 SIERA, 28.85% strikeout rate, and just a 28.32% hard contact rate allowed. I don't need to reiterate how poor the Rox's offense is against lefties, particularly on the road, but I will: .269 wOBA (29th), 65 wRC+ (29th), 29.7% hard contact rate (21st). Their wOBA (.283) and overall strikeout rate (34.5%) rank worst on their slate.
In case things unravel late (we all know how Sundays can be sometimes), I'll stick with the first five run line here, or first five innings result (-0.5), which we can get at -150 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rangers F5 -0.5 (-150), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.50 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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