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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/17/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various baseball bets.
That's right, people, all thirty Major League Baseball teams are playing today on this wonderful Wednesday. We have day baseball as some series wrap up and play an afternoon game on "getaway day" while those series that just started yesterday enter game two of a three-game set.
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As always, I have some thoughts as to where we should place our money today when it comes to betting on these games. In this article, I'll give you my favorite money lines, game totals, team totals, run lines, F5s - you name it! I have a few I really like here today so let's take a look, shall we?
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Minnesota @ LA Dodgers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAD -145
LAD: Dustin May | MIN: Sonny Gray
Just for full transparency, I have been on the wrong side of both the first two games in this series. I was backing Pablo Lopez in game one over Noah Syndergaard in what I thought was a major mismatch and then switched over to the Dodgers side in game two as I really liked Clayton Kershaw's matchup against the Twins only to see Bailey Ober outpitch him and Minnesota win.
Sonny Gray, Filthy Two Seamers. 🌞 pic.twitter.com/8ybnyAFyMk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2023
I am flopping back to the Twins' side today because they have their co-ace, Sonny Gray (Joe Ryan is the other ace) on the bump while the Dodgers go with Dustin May. I have no real issue with May, but his 4.90 SIERA suggests he's playing with fire in allowing as much contact as he has this year. In fact, his 5.8% SwStr% is the lowest of any pitcher toeing the rubber today.
The Twins have some dangerous lefties in this lineup with Gallo, Kirilloff, and Larnach that could give May some trouble. And is Sonny Gray pitching over his head right now? Probably, but I'm willing to keep riding him while he's feeling it and I love that we are getting the Twins as underdogs here, too, those odds are nice.
Pick: MIN ML (+125, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee @ St Louis
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -115
MIL: Corbin Burnes| STL: Matthew Liberatore
What fun is it picking favorites, right? To be perfectly honest, there aren't many big or even moderate favorites that I trust on this slate today, so I am going out on a limb here again with my second pick.
Am I really going to roll with a rookie pitcher against Corbin Burnes tonight? Yeah, I am...and here's why.
The Brewers suck against LHP. It's been pretty well documented this season, but they have the worst wRC+ and strikeout rate (31%) against lefties. Jordan Montgomery struck out seven Brewers last night in six innings, though his offense couldn't get enough going to support him and he was tagged with the loss in a 3-2 defeat.
The weird thing was that the Cardinals' offense was rolling and it looked like they were going to keep rolling when Nolan Arenado took Wade Miley deep in the second inning. But then Miley left with an injury and the Milwaukee bullpen allowed just one run over the final 7+ frames.
Matthew Liberatore 3 pitch K in the 6th
94.4 FB
96.1 FB
75.7 CB
Didn't have his best stuff tonight but still struck out 6 over 5.2 IP. 68% Strike%/35% whiff/31% CSW. pic.twitter.com/fkLKQn4elo— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) April 19, 2023
That result felt kind of fluky to me, so I am going back to St. Louis here. Corbin Burnes has been as dominant this year as he was last year and has reverse splits so more righties in the lineup for STL is actually a good thing.
I think pretty highly of Liberatore, who was pitching really well in Triple-A before getting the call-up. He had a 30% strikeout rate this season and has a nasty curveball to compliment his mid-90s fastball.
I like the Cardinals to pick up a win here at home and once again, the odds are better on the STL side for no other reason than Burnes' reputation in my opinion.
Pick: STL ML (-105, DK Sportsbook)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Washington @ Miami
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA -130
MIA: Edward Cabrera | WSN: MacKenzie Gore
I'll keep this one short and sweet. I like both of these pitchers a lot today and both of these offenses are in the bottom third of the league across the board in terms of offensive production.
Yesterday I tried to pick a side and took Gray to outpitch Luzardo in the first five and whiffed, but the teams combined for only two runs in the first five innings and three runs through the first seven frames.
I like both starters to start strong here and let's take the bullpens (both are below average) out of the equation.
Pick: F5 Total UNDER 4 runs (-115, DK Sportsbook)
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