Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/11/23)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 5/11/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Both teams that were facing elimination last night won at home to push their series to at least a sixth game on Friday. Will we see either Boston or Phoenix eliminated tonight or are these series destined for a Game Seven of their own?

Not many folks expected Philadelphia or Denver to be in control of their series, especially Philly who came in a major underdogs against Boston. As you can see from my post-season record, I have struggled to try to nail down these totals as each game seems to take on an entirely different flow, so I'm skipping totals today and picking winners instead!

As always, in this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA playoff games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Thursday, May 11th. Now, let's see how we want to attack these games with the books tonight!

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• First-Round Series Predictions: 5-3
• 2022-2023 Postseason Individual Games: 10-11
• Against the Spread: 7-3
• Game/Team Totals: 2-7
• Moneyline Parlay: 2-1
• Teasers: 1-3
• Overall: 17-17

NBA Betting Picks

Boston Celtics (-2.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (212.5 total)

Boston's back is officially against the wall tonight as they head to Philadelphia for Game Six. If the Celtics lose tonight and fail to make it to the Conference Finals, their season will largely be viewed as a failure as they had another NBA Finals appearance in their sites and had the good fortune of having Milwaukee - who we thought was the team who stood the best chance of preventing them of advancing - lose in the first round to Miami.

Game Six was a masterpiece by the Philly duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid. The two of them were totally in sync with each other on the pick and roll and both guys were knocking down timely shots, getting to the free throw line, and finding open teammates for open looks.

The Joel Embiid and James Harden pick and roll is just unfair. What do you do? pic.twitter.com/JvUaRf7Ou5

— V̷a̷t̷o̷r̷ (@Vator_H_Town) May 10, 2023

Embiid's defense at the rim continues to be an issue for Boston and as hard as Al Horford tries, he simply can't slow down Embiid giving up 4-5 inches of height and a lot of youth. Robert Williams III has been a non-factor and the Celtics superstar duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum continue to struggle to get it going early in games.

Perhaps Boston has a new game plan for tonight and will make some key adjustments, but their rookie coach Joe Mazzulla has looked lost in this series so I wouldn't count on it. Meanwhile, Doc Rivers' team is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they surely smell blood in the water.

As much as this is a must-win game for Boston (to survive elimination), it's really a must-win for Philly, too, since the last thing they want to do is have to go Boston for Game Seven and allow the Celtics to regain momentum and the homecourt advantage. I think we see Philly slam the door on Boston tonight and win outright. It will be a battle, but I think Embiid is simply too much for the Celtics, and Philly's role players like Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris come up big again in a Sixer win.

The Picks: Sixers ML (+120 DK)

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Denver Nuggets (+3) @ Phoenix Suns (226 total)

I feel pretty confident in a Philly win, but I think this game could really go either way tonight. My gut, however, is telling me that Phoenix simply isn't done yet and that KD and Devin Booker have enough left in the tank to elevate their team to win at home in order to stave off elimination.

Kevin Durant didn’t want any part of Christian Braun. What a play. #KUbball pic.twitter.com/k5YSFrG2YB

— Michael Swain (@MSwain247) May 10, 2023

Game Five was another dominant outing by the Nuggets at home and the home team is now 5-0 in this series. Denver was excellent at home all year, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that they are continuing that trend into the postseason.

But as good as the Nuggets were at home this year, they were considerably worse on the road - especially their defense - and that has also been true in this series as Phoenix rolled up some big offensive numbers in Game Three and Game Four.

My original prediction for this series was Denver in seven games and I'm sticking with that. The Suns have enough star power here to win Game Six at home and we getting them at a reduced number here, too, since they are only three-point favorites after being bigger favorites in both earlier games in Phoenix.

I will lay the three points here and go with Phoenix to cover. I'll also toss their ML in a parlay with Philadelphia (see below) in case they win but don't cover in a buzzer-beater-type scenario.

The Pick: Suns -3 (-110 DK)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

ML Parlay: Philly + Phoenix = (+266 DK)

These NBA Playoffs have been great - enjoy the games tonight!

Good luck, RotoBallers!

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