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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of quarterbacks to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which QBs are falling in ADP and is now the time to pounce?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Although there is nothing to worry about an ADP falling eight picks just a couple of weeks after the NFL draft, the trend speaks a bit about Jacksonville's offseason and the moves they made (or actually, didn't make) through the past few weeks. Lawrence is a loser by default here, although there is also the chance most fantasy GMs are focusing too much on the Jaguars draft in terms of the franchise choosing to go with a RB in Tank Bigsby instead of favoring bolstering the pass-catching corps.
Perhaps those GMs have forgotten about a certain receiver in the returning Calvin Ridley? This could be the case, and if that's in fact the thing causing this drop, then I hope that gets fixed eventually and Lawrence's ADP rises to the blue skies and beyond. Ridley is a top-tier wideout and his last full season in Atlanta (2020) proved so.
Back in 2020, Ridley played 15 games and finished the season as the WR5 in PPR formats. He caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and 9 TDs. In 2021, he only played five games but still averaged a solid 14.2 FPPG with an average line of 6 receptions for 55+ yards per game that season. He spent 2022 suspended but he'll return hypercharged next season to help Trevor Lawrence.
Speaking of Lawrence... The young man is coming off a top-7 QB season. He was already QB23 in his rookie year and the improvement last season was sizable going from an average of 11.7 FPPG in 2021 to a fantastic 17.4 FPPG in 2022. His passing was much more efficient as a sophomore and his rushing numbers improved all across the board.
Hell, Lawrence even brought Evan Engram back to life after the Jags acquired what seemed to be a near-finished tight end and turned him into a bonafide TE1 last year. Buy while you can because the ADP drop is unreasonable and it will eventually/inevitably bounce back and rise again.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes's ADP falling... I've seen it all! Now, if we're serious, it actually makes sense at the end of the day. It is not that his freakishly high ADP can even rise anymore, so it can only go down if you think about it.
Mahomes is coming off a supremely great season in which he finished QB1 with 417.4 FP through 17 games played. The guy simply mastered this thing we called football through the fall and the winter, full stop. And it's been like that since 2018 when he took charge of the Chiefs' pocket, honestly.
That said, it is also true that Kansas City might be getting a little bit too comfortable when it comes to giving Mahomes some pieces that actually help him when on the field. The Chiefs let Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster (two of their top-4 WRs in total PPR points last year) go this offseason. They only added Rashee Rice with a draft pick while retaining all of their other main pieces.
The Chiefs are basically betting on Mahomes being Mahomes all by himself, in Travis Kelce still being a no. 1 TE (he's been that guy for seven of the last eight seasons in PPR leagues...), and in a weird amalgam of wide receivers that hopefully will find open windows on a play-by-play basis, one player at a time.
You might or might not like a strategy founded on drafting a QB with a second-round pick, but if you're going to walk that path you better put your money (pick) where Mahomes is. Folks keep doubting him and the lad keeps shutting their mouths yearly. Too bad for the haters, that doesn't look like it will be changing in the next two... or eight seasons.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
It took Allen two years (one, maybe?) but after we hit the 2020s, he's been an absolute beast at things we call fantasy football. Allen has finished the last three seasons as the QB1, QB1, and QB2. In the offseasons leading up to those campaigns, his ADP sat at 85th, 25th, and 18th overall. It's now settling around 30th and, truth be told, that's a bargain considering his last two figures on that front and his QB1+QB2 finishes.
All the Bills have lost this offseason are WR3 Isaiah McKenzie and RB1 Devin Singletary. For one, Isaiah McKenzie's production has been replaced by the addition of the pair of Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty along with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. For two, Singletary was a borderline RB2 in the NFL last season (PPR format) and Josh Allen nearly outrushed him while scoring two more touchdowns through the year.
In a similar situation to that of Mahomes, it is not that Allen's ADP can do anything else other than drop because it's already sky-high. That said, the more it keeps falling, the better Allen will look for those aiming at building their fantasy roster around a legitimate league-winning quarterback with a super early fantasy draft pick this summer.
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