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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Friday, May 5th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Happy Cinco de Mayo! The first pick of the holiday is a no-doubter. Steele has been excellent this season with a 1.49 ERA (3.20 xERA) and elite batted-ball metrics, particularly in the average exit velocity and hard-hit rate metrics. A matchup with the light-hitting Marlins should allow him to continue his hot form today. Muller, meanwhile, has a 6.28 ERA (7.50 xERA) and inferior Statcast metrics across the board. Plus, he pitches for the A's, so he has very little chance of securing any bonus points for securing a win.
Edward Cabrera vs. Nico Hoerner
Hoerner is slashing .125/.222/.125 over 16 at-bats in May. That's...not good. As things currently stand, I will side with the pitcher over Hoerner in most cases, so Cabrera fits the bill. The 25-year-old holds a 4.67 ERA (4.23 xERA) with a solid 28.6% strikeout rate through six starts, though his 19.8% walk rate is slightly concerning. As long as Cabrera doesn't get blown up by the middling Cubs offense, he'll win this matchup over Hoerner.
This is a no-brainer. Berti has had some big games recently, but Arozarena has too, and the latter is a much better hitter overall. Arozarena will face Jhony Brito (5.56 ERA) to start, while Berti gets a tougher matchup with Justin Steele (1.49 ERA) on the mound for the Cubbies.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Lance Lynn (UNDER), Yu Darvish (UNDER), Merrill Kelly (OVER)
Lynn is averaging just 12.28 FPTS per game this season and comes into today's game with an inflated 7.16 ERA (5.86 xERA) and awful advanced metrics outside of his strikeout rate and Whiff rate. The Reds aren't the most fearsome offense in the world, but I don't see any way Lynn hits the over on his lofty 18.15 FPTS line.
Darvish is having a much better season than Lynn, but he has shown a penchant for getting blown up as the Mets (five earned runs) and Giants (four earned runs, three homers) have done damage against him over his five starts. The primary reason to take the under on him today is the tough matchup he's faced with. The Dodgers rank second in SLG (.489), OPS (.835), ISO (.235), and wOBA (.358) against right-handed pitching this season.
Kelly has been rolling this season, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his six starts on his way to a shiny 3.06 ERA (5.49 xERA). A date with the Nationals is a juicy one as they rank second-worst in OPS (.629), worst in ISO (.094), and third-worst in wOBA (.283) against right-handed pitching this season. They also hold just a 3.9-run implied total, so Kelly has an above-average chance at securing the win today.
MJ Melendez (OVER), Eugenio Suarez (UNDER), Jorge Soler (UNDER)
Melendez has posted games of 15 and 16 FPTS over his last three games, and his over/under numbers sits at a low 7.09 FPTS today. He'll be facing Kyle Muller (6.28 ERA) to start, and whenever he exits, Melendez will have the gift of facing the worst bullpen in the MLB by a country mile. Oakland's bullpen holds an egregious 6.11 xFIP; the next-worst bullpen is the Rangers (4.80 xFIP).
Suarez's line is at 7.27 FPTS, and he has put up 7 FPTS or less in ten of his last 11 games. Houston is starting Christian Javier, who holds a tidy 3.48 ERA despite allowing more hard hits and homers than he'd like. Vegas has the Mariners struggling to score today with a 3.3-run implied total, and I'm all over the Suarez under here.
Soler needs 7.11 FPTS and has posted 6 FPTS or less in nine of his last ten games. I'm not willing to roll those dice, regardless of the pitching matchup he's faced with. He's hitting the ball hard, but his .220 AVG and 25.9% strikeout rate leave much to be desired. Plus, he'll be facing Justin Steele (4-0, 1.49 ERA, 96th-percentile hard-hit rate).
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