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I've got to be honest with you guys, I enjoy writing this article much more than I expected I would. Not because I enjoy raining on people's parades. Not because I enjoy wishing for a player's demise. I enjoy it because, for me, the research that goes into this is much different than my usual.
Finding trends that point to a player's success can be easy once you've been doing it for a while. Guys like Jarred Kelenic and Yandy Diaz have made adjustments that point to their breakouts both being real and sustainable. Finding those guys who are outproducing has become a game of sorts for me. Digging through player page after player page and analyzing the data is fun. It's just a matter of actually wanting to put in the effort which not everyone does, but that's where I come in handy.
A few of my favorites I've highlighted so far in this series are Nolan Gorman before his current nine-game cold streak and Jose Abreu with his lack of power. That lack of power for Abreu has continued since last week as well. For this week's article I am going to go the route I went last week. Instead of focusing just on waiver wire guys, we're going to cover a mix of waiver wire and rostered players I think are worth thinking twice about before adding them to your roster. Whether they're overproducing their current numbers, face bad upcoming matchups, or are losing their playing time battle, let this list guide you to a winning week.
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Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays
I promise not to let my inner Mariners fan sway my opinion of Kikuchi. I'd be lying if I said he was good when he left Seattle, and I'd be lying if I said he was doing anything this season that made me feel any differently. He did have a hot start to the year in terms of fantasy points. He had been one of the biggest surprises thus far. The problem is he's been vastly outperforming his numbers and hasn't actually made any tangible changes this season.
When I see a pitcher starting the year hot out of nowhere, I like to be able to see some real tangible changes. Whether that be more movement, more velocity, a new pitch mix or what have you. Yusei has done that a bit, lowering his fastball usage to just 38%, but it hasn't been that effective. It still has a .400 BAA while his changeup and slider have seen a usage uptick and yet their xBA are both higher than they were last season.
He's currently 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 4.78 xERA. I'm sure those will both inflate a bit more after his 4.1-inning, five-earned run performance yesterday against Boston. His next starts should tentatively be against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee. Don't let his raw numbers fool you, Kikuchi is nothing more than a streaming option at best.
Brandon Drury, Los Angeles Angels
The waiver wire darling of 2022 has been hot as of late for the Angels. Because of that, he's become one of the more popular waiver wire additions once again in 2023. Yes, I'm aware he is still rostered in half the leagues out there (give or take a bit) but whether he's on waivers or on a roster, I'm not buying it.
On the season, Drury has raised his swing rate to 50.6% and, in turn, his zone contact rate has dropped to 77.2%. He's chasing many more pitches this season (37.2%) and whiffing on a lot more as well (31.2%). The recent success that has made him such a popular addition all came against Oakland. In that series, he went 9-15 with four home runs and 12 RBI.
Outside of that Oakland series, Drury has just three doubles, one home run, and five RBI. I know there is still a lot of "once he gets hot he's going to kill it this year" buzz around Drury still but it's not worth it. He's not going to give you the type of production you're hoping for this season and has limited fantasy value currently.
Luke Raley, Tampa Bay Rays
Now here's a name I wasn't expecting to need to add to this list but...here we are. I get a lot of start/sit and add/drop messages these days and Raley seems to be a pretty popular topic of conversation. The problem is, he's not even a regular in that Tampa Bay lineup. Even as a platoon guy against righties, he's still only had more than two at-bats in two of the teams' last six games.
What makes him so intriguing is the seven home runs. In his last three games, he's 5-11 with three home runs, four runs scored, and six RBI. Early in the season like this, a couple of big games can really inflate a player's overall numbers. Outside of the playing time, he profiles as an interesting hitter as well. He's in the 29th percentile in xBA, has a 34% strikeout rate, and a whiff rate just shy of 40%. But his power numbers are intriguing. His hard-hit rate (91st percentile), xSLG (92nd), and barrel rate (99th) all point to someone making quality contact.
The one thing Raley isn't doing to capitalize on that power long-term is he's not pulling or elevating the ball. He has an average launch angle of almost 20 degrees but a fly ball rate of just 30.8%. His pull rate is also sub-40%. More playing time and an uptick in his flyball and pull rates would turn Raley into a legitimate power threat. As it sits currently, he's nothing more than a guy who had a couple of good games. Outside of very deep leagues he's probably best suited to stay on the waiver wire.
Christian Arroyo, Boston Red Sox
Ok so yes I’m aware his roster percentage isn’t the highest. This is meant to serve as a reminder that despite his recent success, there is no place for Arroyo on your fantasy roster. Now in a 12-team, AL-only league…sure. In normal leagues under 15 teams, look the other way.
This. This is Arroyo’s baseball savant page. He’s currently hitting .245 with a home run and eight RBI. In his last three games, he’s 6-11 with that one home run, a double, and four runs scored. If you had him rostered during that stretch I’m sure you’re happy. Still, Arroyo is a weak side platoon with an xBA of .190 which is not ideal.
Low xBA, an average exit velocity of just 86.1 MPH, and a hard hit rate that makes JP Crawford look like Aaron Judge. Combine those with the playing time concerns and you have the makings of a player on a hot streak you can avoid.
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays
Would you look at that - a second Blue Jay in this piece? Also the first guy on the list with a fairly high roster rate. I was expecting to have a couple more but I guess this is how the article shook itself out this week.
Varsho is a guy who was a consensus top-three catcher coming into 2023. And it was well deserved. He’s fresh off a 27-home run 16-steal season that not many catchers have the ability to string together. For as good as he was in those categories last year, he’s been shaky to start this season. Your bad numbers get forced into the spotlight when the good ones are no longer cutting it.
He’s currently hitting .198 with a .625 OPS. He’s got three home runs, nine RBI, and five stolen bases. I’ll give him some credit, the stolen base output has been good, but a third of his home runs and RBI came in the game he just played on Tuesday. He currently has just five barrels on the season and an average exit velocity of 85.5 MPH. That drops him into the sixth percentile.
With stolen bases being more prevalent this year, I’m not sure how much of a differentiator those are for Varsho at this point. The low batting average can be overlooked if he’s over-performing in other areas, but when he’s average to below average in the power department there’s legitimate cause for concern. Varsho may very well turn things around at some point, but for right now I see too many red flags to leave him off my buyer-beware list.
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