Should You Pick Up Joey Lucchesi? Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Insider

In the preseason, the New York Mets featured a good mix of starting pitcher options that were considered impactful fantasy performers at various levels. Of course, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have earned their annual status as high draft choices, and Kodai Senga was a tempting possible upside target. David Peterson and Tylor Megill were on the radar as deeper fliers.

Joey Lucchesi, however, was not drafted in most mixed leagues, and over a week ago, he was a free agent in my NL-only league.

Heading into Week 5 of the 2023 fantasy baseball season, though, Lucchesi has resurfaced as an intriguing waiver wire add who might ultimately settle in as a quality fantasy performer.

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From Waiver Wire Surprise To Fantasy Baseball Mainstay?

Lucchesi instantly splashed back onto the fantasy scene on April 21, After not pitching in a Major League Game since June 18, 2021, due to Tommy John surgery, the former Padre shut out the Giants in a seven-inning victory, striking out nine batters while allowing four hits and two walks.

“I’ve got a new elbow and I feel like I’m better,” Lucchesi told RotoBaller. “That was the best outing I’ve ever pitched in my career, to be honest. I feel pretty good.”

JOEY LUCCHESI STRIKES OUT THE SIDE IN THE 7TH! pic.twitter.com/pjopRUdwIl

— SNY (@SNYtv) April 22, 2023

Lucchesi’s second start on Thursday against Washington was less of a headline-maker, as he worked 5.1 innings and allowed three runs, two of which came around to score after he left the game. The 29-year-old allowed five hits, two walks and struck out three.

So after two starts, fantasy players obviously want to know, which version of Lucchesi will we see more of going forward? Tim Britton, who covers the Mets for The Athletic and also has experience analyzing fantasy baseball, believes the limited sample size we have seen from Lucchesi so far is a good indicator of what to expect going forward.

”I think he can be an excellent streaming option, and you see how it evolves,” Britton said. “He’s shown in the past that he can be a guy that can make 30 starts at the Major League level with a good ERA, and there’s a little bit of a higher ceiling there.”

In 2019 with San Diego, Lucchesi logged 30 starts, and he finished the season with a 4.18 ERA. Fantasy leaguers did look to take their shots on Lucchesi in 2018 and 2019, when he had ERA finishes under 4.20 with promising strikeout percentages of 26.5 and 23.0, respectively. Four years later, Lucchesi said he has recaptured his best form.

”I feel like I’m in a rhythm right now and on a wave and I’ll ride that as long as I can,” he said.

In 2021, Lucchesi was traded to the Mets and started to get comfortable with his new team just before injuring his elbow. In his final three starts of the ’21 campaign, the 6-foot-5, 225-pounder allowed two runs with 14 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched. Over 11 appearances with the Mets that year, Lucchesi was beginning to emerge as a solid starting option for New York when his season ended.

”It was really unfortunate timing for him, “Britton said. “He was just starting to hit his stride when he went down. That was the kind of pitcher he looked like in his first start back. It’s as good a start as he’s had in his career.”

The Mets’ ‘Mr. Churve’ Is An Enticing Pickup for Fantasy Baseball

At San Francisco in his explosive return to the Majors, Lucchesi dominated with his cutter and his distinctive showcase pitch known as a ‘”churve”, a totally unique fusion of a changeup and curveball. His performance stirred Mets manager Buck Showalter to quote a legendary Dodgers pitcher from the late 1980s and early 1990s.

“He throws strikes and makes people have to honor all his pitches. Orel Hershiser used to say a long time ago if you command three pitches, you can dominate. Two to win, and one to compete. He had two working that night,” Showalter said.

As noted by BaseballCloudBlog, even Baseball Savant has struggled to categorize the churve. It was a rare weapon for Lucchesi earlier in his career with the Padres, and now he has the potential to regain a firm foothold as an MLB starter with the pitch. Lucchesi has fully embraced the churve as part of his pitching identity.

“That’s who I am. I’m Mr. Churve. I’m going to be throwing that thing all year,” he said.

Joey Lucchesi, Wicked 80mph Churve. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/QcYvZqVicO

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 22, 2021

So far this season, according to Baseball Savant, Lucchesi has thrown his “curveball” 22.5 percent of the time with a .154 BAA and a .286 xBA. He has also thrown his cutter 25.8 percent of the time, saying it’s “another weapon and I plan to utilize that.”

Britton added that the change/curve offering can give Lucchesi a possible consistent advantage over hitters, much like one of his teammates is trying to do with his own signature pitch.

” Lucchesi’s unique with that changeup/curveball that he calls the churve that no one else has, similar to the way Kodai Senga throws that ghost fork,” Britton said. “It’s a pitch that hitters don’t see, and they have to adjust to.”

The completely uncommon delivery that Lucchesi utilizes gives him another advantage over hitters. It is simply better to show you the mechanics and delivery instead of making what may be a futile attempt to describe it properly.

Joey Lucchesi did a great job keeping #Astros hitters guessing yesterday. And, as usual, he brought the 🔥delivery to the mound. #Mets #LGM (via @Mets) pic.twitter.com/ZJ9YjWgYZV

— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) March 28, 2021

”His delivery and the deception he’s got with his windup makes him hard to hit.”Mets catcher Tomas Nido said. Showalter added that it’s the kind of delivery that doesn’t need tweaking or adjusting.

“Joey’s got a very deceptive look. He’s one of those guys you don’t smooth out too much and make him look generic or robotic, you kind of like the deceptiveness in his delivery. He hides the ball well,” he said.

Lucchesi said that he is well aware of how he can throw hitters off with his mechanics.

“I hope it messes them up as much as possible. I’m always told that I’m a different look, a lot of stuff going on from the mound,” he said.

The Rest-Of-Season Fantasy Outlook For Joey Lucchesi

It’s been a long road back to relevance for the 2016 fourth-round draft pick of the Padres. So far this season, Lucchesi has a 2.19 ERA, yet he may finish in more in the range of the 4.03 xFIP. He does have a 3.99 xFIP and 24.6 strikeout rate in his career, so Lucchesi certainly can function as a respectable fantasy starter. But will he stick in the Mets’ rotation?

“There is an opportunity here with the Mets,” Britton said. “I know Scherzer’s coming back, Verlander’s coming back, but they would like to go with the six-man rotation, and given the way the rest of the rotation has worked for a little bit, there could be ample room for him to flourish here. Jose Quintana is out for a little while, we don’t know exactly when Carlos Carrasco is coming back, and David Peterson and Tylor Megill, the guys you would expect to be there longer-term in the rotation right now, haven’t quite performed up to expectations so far.”

Joey Lucchesi on his need to locate his other pitches:

"They do call me the churve, but I need to be able to spot my sinker and cutter in, up, down, away" pic.twitter.com/MKhwTvcmhr

— SNY (@SNYtv) April 28, 2023

We should view Lucchesi as a possible sixth or seventh fantasy starter with occasional upside. He is definitely worthy of a six to eight-dollar Free Agent Budget Bid in mixed leagues, and twice as much in NL-only formats. If he can continue to display respectable and sometimes outstanding form, the 2021 acquisition in a three-team trade does have a conceivable shot to ultimately stick as a projected fifth or sixth starter for New York.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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