RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta. His PGA TOUR Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello folks, and welcome back to Horse For The Course. The young duo of Nick Hardy and Davis Riley captured the Zurich Classic team event title last week. It marked the first PGA Tour win for both players.
After a neat break from the regular stroke-play grind last week, we're back to our beloved DFS format for this week's Mexico Open at Vidanta, an event that is in its infancy and is set to make just its second-ever appearance on the PGA Tour schedule.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta
We follow the quirkiness of last week's Zurich Classic team event with another tournament that ranks fairly low down the list of "must-watch" events on the PGA Tour schedule - the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
This will mark just the second playing of the Mexico Open as a PGA Tour event (it shouldn't be confused with the former WGC Mexico tournament) and marks a fairly big departure from the types of tournaments we've grown accustomed to over the last few months, as this week's field more closely resembles a Swing Season event than one with "Designated" status.
To his credit, last year's inaugural Mexico Open winner, Jon Rahm, will be back to defend his title in this year's edition. Just weeks removed from winning the Masters - and honoring his commitment to the RBC Heritage the following week - Rahm continues to impress with his professionalism. A favorite in almost any field, the Spaniard has very little standing in his way this week with Tony Finau being the only other golfer in this field that ranks inside the OWGR's top 50.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Vidanta Villarta
Par 71 - 7,456 Yards, Greens: Paspalum, Designed By: Greg Norman
We entered last year's Mexico Open with more questions than answers about this Vidanta Villarta layout. Our speculation that bombers with the ability to rack up birdies in bunches would thrive on this Greg Norman design turned out to be pretty darned accurate in last year's edition, so there's little reason to change our target model this go around.
A fairly lengthy Par-71 with generous fairways, Vidanta Villarta yielded a winning score of 17-under par to Jon Rahm last year, which means it wasn't quite the true birdie-fest of 20+ under par that I expected. Scores were kept - somewhat - in check by winds that gusted upwards of 30 mph at times last year and those winds will remain the only real defense for this golf course again in 2023. I'll once again be targeting bombers off that tee that are good with long-iron approaches (last year's Mexico Open featured a number of approach shots from 200+ yards that's exponentially higher than the Tour average) and have the ability to make lots of birdies. Pretty straightforward stuff.
Recent Mexico Open Winners & Scoring Info
- 2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- 2019: N/A
- 2018: N/A
- Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -17
The Horse
Jon Rahm
- Event Scoring Average: 66.75 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: Win (2022)
- DraftKings Price: $12,000 FanDuel Price: $12,600
Jon Rahm's victory in last year's Mexico Open at Vidanta was a nice lesson in the KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach to PGA DFS. Even though he wasn't in his best form at the time, Rahm was the best player in last year's field by a wide margin and he took care of business, taking down the title with a score of 17-under par for the week.
The circumstances are similar this week, as the Spaniard and Tony Finau are the only two golfers in this year's Mexico Open field that are ranked inside the OWGR's top 50. What is different is Rahm's form. While he entered last year's edition somewhat stuck in neutral, he comes to Mexico with all cylinders firing this year.
Most recently, he won the Masters for his second career major championship, but even before he slipped on the green jacket earlier this month, Rahmbo was white hot and the winner of three tournaments this calendar year prior to his breakthrough at Augusta National.
There's little reason to believe things will change much this week, as he's fully capable of cutting through this field like a hot knife through butter. Rahm has long shown himself capable of winning when he's supposed to win, which might not sound like a big accomplishment but is actually pretty rare in the talent-rich world of modern golf.
He's historically feasted on weaker fields, especially in his international starts, winning the Spanish Open three times and the Irish Open twice with his victory at the U.S.-based AmEx earlier this year standing as the most recent example of his ability to thrive as a big favorite and be up for events that might be considered "lesser" tournaments.
The Ponies
Tony Finau
- Event Scoring Average: 67.00 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T2 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $10,700 FanDuel Price: $12,300
Big Tony checks a couple of important boxes this week, as he's the only elite golfer in this field outside of Jon Rahm and he actually has some experience in this event.
Finau is a natural fit for Vidanta Villarta thanks to his length off the tee (36th in field Driving Distance), Par-5 scoring (third in field SG: Par-5s), and ability to handle long Par-4s (fifth SG on Par-4s measuring 450-500 yards). He also grades out second in this field (to Rahm, of course) in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 50 rounds.
After closing 2022 with nuclear form that led to wins in three of his last seven starts, Finau has been relatively quiet to open 2023 and has failed to reach the winner's circle this year. However, his ball-striking numbers indicate that a breakthrough could be close. He's gained strokes T2G in every start this year and gained an average of 4.8 strokes on Approach over his last five measured tournaments. Finau flashed the ability to dominate weaker fields last year and this is a terrific opportunity for him to add another win to his growing resume.
Patrick Rodgers
- Event Scoring Average: 67.75 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: 10th ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $9,300 FanDuel Price: $11,200
After the "Big Two" of Rahm and Finau, things were bound to turn ugly in a field such as this. Let's kick the "best of the rest" off with Patrick Rodgers, a player that scored a 10th-place finish in last year's Mexico Open and has flashed some form in his recent outings.
Rodgers closed out 2022 in strong form, logging top-25s in four of his last five starts to the calendar year. However, the former Stanford star failed to bring that positive momentum into the new year, missing the cut in five of his first six starts of 2023.
He has snapped out of that slump recently, though, scoring a T5 at the Valero Texas Open and following with a rock-solid T19 against elite competition at the RBC Heritage. Rodgers has gained a combined 16 strokes T2G across his last two starts.
The 30-year-old now brings that trending form to a Vidanta Villarta layout on which he gained 4.8 strokes T2G in last year's edition of the Mexico Open. Rodgers has also shown an affinity for Paspalum greens such as he'll see this week. He gained an eye-opening five strokes putting at Vidanta last year and grades out ninth in this week's field in SG: Putting on Paspalum.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Aaron Rai
- Event Scoring Average: 68.75 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T24 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $8,900 FanDuel Price: $10,000
A T24 in last year's Mexico Open doesn't exactly blow us away, but it's a solid-enough result for a player that enters this year's edition with his arrow pointing up.
Aaron Rai is a player I've been targeting often over the last several weeks with increasingly good returns. I don't know how much weight we want to give to his T13 in last week's Zurich with partner David Lipsky, but even if we toss that outing aside, the form is trending in the right direction.
His T48 result in Hilton Head doesn't do justice to just how well he played there. Rai opened the Heritage with a scorching 63 on Thursday, only for his putter to turn ice cold for the rest of the week. He ultimately lost 2.2 strokes putting but gained 4.8 strokes on Approach. It's been something of a pattern for the Englishman, who has now gained strokes with the irons in three of his last four starts.
I'm bullish on his talent - especially in comparison to the rest of this week's field - and I like the trajectory that his game is currently on. Toss in the experience he has at Vidanta Villarta from last year and Rai is a sturdy horse to hop on for this watered-down slate.
Chez Reavie
- Event Scoring Average: 68.25 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T13 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $8,900
The light-hitting Reavie breaks the "bomber" mold that we're generally targeting this week, but the veteran possesses a T13 on his Mexico Open CV, as well as form that's been rediscovered in recent weeks.
Reavie has been on a milk carton for the better part of a year and missed six consecutive cuts at one point in 2023. Despite those not-so-long-ago struggles, the vet has recently turned things around thanks to drastically-improved iron play, as well as a putter that appears to coming around.
The 41-year-old has gained a massive 11.2 strokes on Approach over his last two starts, leading to strong finishes at both the Valero (T6) and Heritage (T11). Reavie has also demonstrated his prowess on lengthy second shots, ranking fourth in Proximity from 175-200 and 17th from 200+ yards over his last 50 measured rounds. The number of approach shots from 200+ yards that players faced in last year's Mexico Open (42.3%) was nearly double the PGA Tour average (22%) and Reavie is again well equipped to handle that aspect of Vidanta Villarta.
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