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Jackson Sparks discusses QB Mac Jones as one of the top dynasty fantasy football fallers for 2023 after a disappointing 2022 fantasy season.
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones doesn't possess elite fantasy QB upside since he isn't a dual-threat QB, but after his strong rookie season in 2021, he looked to be a safe and secure QB2 in Superflex or two-quarterback dynasty leagues. The Alabama product led the Patriots to the playoffs with the sixth-highest-scoring offense as a rookie and became a high-end QB2 in dynasty rankings.
However, his sophomore campaign left a lot to be desired as the Patriots' offense took a step back without former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Now, there's buzz out of New England that Jones and head coach Bill Belichick aren't getting along -- which can only further decrease his value during the 2023 offseason.
In this edition of dynasty risers and fallers, we'll dive into Jones' 2022 campaign, his dynasty value and trade market, and his 2023 fantasy football outlook. Let's get to it!
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2022 Season Review
In the Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins, Jones completed 21 of his 30 passing attempts for 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It wasn't a hot start to the year, as Jones finished the week as the fantasy QB30. Week 2 against the Steelers saw more of the same as Jones completed 21 of his 35 passing attempts for 252 yards one touchdown and one interception – good for a QB19 finish.
Although he threw three interceptions and no touchdowns in Week 3, he posted 321 passing yards and a rushing touchdown to produce his first QB1 finish of the year (QB9, 18.9 fantasy points). However, Jones suffered an ankle injury that would cost him three starts. In his absence, rookie signal-caller Baily Zappe would start for New England after Brian Hoyer suffered a concussion against the Green Bay Packers.
In four games of action. Zappe completed 65 of his 92 passing attempts (70.7 percent) for 781 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. He won both of his starts against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns and almost defeated Aaron Rodgers after taking over for Hoyer.
Jones would return in Week 7 against the Bears, but he was benched after attempting just six passes – completing three of them for 13 yards and an interception. Zappe struggled against Chicago too, so Jones was again named the starter for Week 8.
Jones played relatively well in the four games from Week 8 to Week 12, completing 95 of 131 attempts (72.5%) for 969 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. He still wasn't a difference-maker in fantasy thanks to the lack of touchdown or rushing upside, but he delivered respectable QB23, QB21, and QB7 performances.
He'd throw just one touchdown over the next three weeks (13-15), but his final three outings were some of the best of his career. In Weeks 16 through 18, Jones threw for 687 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. He posted QB11, QB15, and QB8 finishes.
Overall, Jones finished his 2022 campaign with 2,997 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, adding 102 rushing yards and one rushing score.
Per Playerprofiler.com data Jones finished 26th in yards per attempt (6.8), 18th in air yards per attempt (7.8), 26th in pressured completion percentage (34.5%), 21st in true passer rating (81.1), and 29th in fantasy points per drop back (0.38). Ultimately, he ranked 29th in fantasy points per game (minimum nine starts) and 23rd in total fantasy points among QBs.
Mac Jones Dynasty Value/Market
While player valuations will vary widely from league to league, KeepTradeCut.com is a helpful resource for getting an idea of a player's value. These crowdsourced rankings have Jones as the dynasty QB26 in two-QB/Superflex leagues. At this time last year (mid-April), Jones was valued as the QB17.
Mac Jones Dynasty Value
All starting quarterbacks carry value in those formats, but he's now nothing more than a bottom-of-the-barrel option with limited job security. At just 24 years old, a nine-spot positional drop is very concerning. Needless to say, Jones' value would plummet entirely if New England shocks the and takes a quarterback in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
In early FFPC draft ADP, Jones is coming off the board at the QB28 spot. That said, there's no real risk to draft him and if he's the full-time starter in 2023, that should be his rock-bottom floor. While Jones unquestionably underperformed in 2022, it's worth noting he had one of the worst pass-catching groups in the NFL to work with – and his offensive play-caller was Matt Patricia for much of the year. Seriously.
New England lost Jakobi Meyers to the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason, but it added former Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki to play a hybrid WR/TE role and former Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace Meyers. Expect the team to target a high-end WR like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, or Zay Flowers in this month's upcoming draft, but they could also be a potential suitor for Pro Bowl wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Ultimately, the receiving corps can't get much worse than it was last season – there is nowhere to go but up.
The team also brought back Bill O'Brien to run the offense, so hopefully, there is more competency all around on the offensive side of the ball in 2023. The panic on Jones might be largely overblown, so he presents a sneaky value at the end of the QB pecking order in 2023 fantasy drafts. He's a low-risk asset if he fails, but he might provide solid backup production in single-QB leagues and mid-level QB2 production for superflex leagues.
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