RADIO
Byron's round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for The 2023 RBC Heritage. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and rankings for DraftKings, FanDuel.
Round 2 finished before Saturday and it truly feels like the content gods are grinning upon us - thank you! Jimmy Walker has ascended into the stratosphere amongst the gods of all kinds, shooting back-to-back 65s and leads the field of elevated superstars, by three. In his rear-view mirror are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay (who made an ace today), Viktor Hovland and Mark Hubbard (just kidding). Simply put, Walker has a bunch of elite marathoners behind him and his endurance is about to be under serious scrutiny.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
Highest-Owned Golfers
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
The morning wave that tees off before 10AM should get the best weather before the wind picks up a little in the afternoon.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $20K FULL ROUND SPECIAL [18 ENTRY MAX], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Jon Rahm - his lackluster R1 performance may see him still go slightly under owned tomorrow and he did record the highest points total today. If he carries that momentum into the third round, he should be right in the mix come Sunday.
$9,000+
Collin Morikawa - The best iron player in the world going less than 10% owned cannot be overlooked at a course that requires exceptional ball striking. A hot putter for a round can do some serious damage with minimal ownership associated with his name.
Tony Finau - Outside of Patrick Cantlay (who made an ace) Tony Finau leads the field in ball striking, yet sits all the way down in T34 because he has been atrocious on and around the greens. One inspirational putting performance sees him vault up the leaderboard. What has happened to the putter Tony?
$8,000+
Cameron Young - After struggling mightily with the putter, he ended his round with 4 birdies in 6 holes and if he keeps that momentum going into R3, with an early tee time, he has the opportunity to springboard himself up the leaderboard (my OAD league needs this to happen in a big way).
Justin Thomas - He has been phenomenal around the greens, needing to lean on that area of his game because his patented ball striking has been lacking. His putter has also been problematic and if it heats up for a round, we are right back in business.
Matt Kuchar - Kuchar is just plodding his way around this golf course and although he is rather high owned, he seems reliable and is rather affordable at $8,200.
Sam Burns and Tyrrell Hatton - Both shot a 70 in round 3 and as two of the best putters in the field, they could easily light up the slate if their ball striking gets in line.
$7,000+
Sahith Theegala, Wyndham Clark, and Chris Kirk - All three have been a little underwhelming on the ball striking front, but with some certainty that they have now made the weekend, with early tee times and very little expectations, we can see these three go nuclear before the leaders tee off.
Rickie Fowler - Rickie is simply playing too well to be priced at $7,900. Although he has done most of his damage with the putter (a common occurrence) he is also one of the best iron players from 150-200 yards in the field. Light it up with the approach game and keep that putter cooking, Rickie.
Denny McCarthy, Andrew Putnam and Keegan Bradley - Simply put, once these three make the cut, they are averaging over a stroke per round in R3. Scott Stallings also tends to play much better in R3 compared to those in his price range.
$6,000+
Nick Taylor - Being priced in the $6k range seems a little disrespectful, but we will gladly put our chips on somebody who has gained 1.19 strokes in R3 since the start of 2022.
Harris English and Ernie Els - Harris is one of the leading birdie makers in the $6k range. The Big Easy is a champions tour veteran who finds himself hitting his irons very well through two rounds. If he can clean it up off the tee, watch. out.
Cameron Davis - His baseline stats are all jacked up from earlier in the year when he was sick and struggling. He shot -4 in R2 and is $6,600 which is a very appealing salary saver for somebody who is gaining over 3 strokes on approach so far this week.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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