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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 31 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 04/15/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts and looking at the best options for your lineups
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
This is our second straight week of having just ten games over the weekend slate, something that isn't scheduled to happen again until Gameweek 35. So we'll look to navigate this week safely before the scheduled and fixtures really kick into overdrive in the closing weeks of the season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
Saturday, April 15th, 2023
Aston Villa (+260) vs Newcastle United (+110) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 2 Newcastle United
Villa have won their last four, keeping three clean sheets and scoring two or more in each win. They've now scored in 17 consecutive EPL games. Newcastle have won five straight, scoring 13 goals in that run and registering at least two in all five wins. They have only kept one clean sheet, however.
Tottenham (-210) vs Bournemouth (+550) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 0 Bournemouth
Tottenham needed VAR errors to beat Brighton but extended their unbeaten run to four games and have won their last five home league games. Bournemouth have just three away wins this season, two against sides in the bottom-3 and the other against 13th-placed Wolves. Their 1-1 draw at Newcastle is the only time they've conceded less than two away against a team currently in the top half.
Southampton (+180) vs Crystal Palace (+170) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Crystal Palace
Southampton's winless streak is now at five games and they have conceded ten goals in their last four games. Their sole clean sheet at home this season came against 19th-placed Leicester City. Palace's turnaround under Roy Hodgson has seen them move six points clear of the relegation zone and their 5-1 win against Leeds was the first time they'd scored five in a league game since December 2020.
Chelsea (+160) vs Brighton (+170) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 2 Brighton
Chelsea's 2-0 defeat at Real Madrid in midweek leaves their season dangling by a thread and was their fourth game without a goal in all competitions. Brighton will feel aggrieved by last week's 2-1 loss at Tottenham which ended their unbeaten away record at seven games. Only the league's top-2 have scored more than Brighton (27) on their travels.
Everton (+105) vs Fulham (+270) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 0 Fulham
Everton's five home games under Sean Dyche have seen them win 1-0 on three occasions and fail to score more than one in any of them. Everton's home form will be key to their survival chances. Fulham's losing streak is now at four games and they've failed to score in five of their last ten games and twice in their last three games.
Wolves (+155) vs Brentford (+190) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Brentford
Wolves ended their three-game winless run and have now scored in five consecutive league games. They hadn't achieved that in three-straight games before this run. Brentford enters the game without a win in four games and they've now suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time this season. They lead the league in draws (13) and away draws (seven).
Manchester City (-550) vs Leicester City (+1300) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Leicester City
Manchester City move into pole position for the title following their 4-1 win at Southampton, and their 3-0 midweek win against Bayern Munich made it 24 goals scored in their last five games (in all competitions). Leicester's appointment of Dean Smith until the end of the season won't make a difference this weekend and Leicester's winless streak will extend to nine (losing eight of them).
Sunday, April 16th, 2023
West Ham United (+475) vs Arsenal (-180) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 2 Arsenal
West Ham have scored in six consecutive home EPL games and had their five-game unbeaten home streak snapped by Newcastle. Arsenal ceded the initiative in the title race following their 2-2 draw at Liverpool but they remain unbeaten in their last eight EPL games, scoring 25 goals and had won their previous seven.
Nottingham Forest (+425) vs Manchester United (-165) 1:30 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Manchester United
Forest slipped into the relegation zone but 21 of their 27 points this season have been picked up at home. They've failed to win any of their last nine games but avoided defeat in ten of their last 11 home games. Manchester United lost their last two away EPL games with an aggregate score of 9-0 and their minus-12 goal difference on their travels is the worst among teams in the top half of the table.
Monday, April 17th, 2023
Leeds United (+330) vs Liverpool (-140) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 1 Liverpool
Leeds' 5-1 shellacking at home to Crystal Palace was the first time this season they'd lost at home to a side not currently in the top-10 (eight games). Liverpool's home and away splits are stark with 31 points at home and 13 away. They've scored 36 goals at home and just 14 away. Liverpool have picked up just five points from their last eight away games and failed to score in five of them.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals and both teams to score).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Aston Villa 2 – 2 Newcastle | Draw +245 | o2.5 +100 | Yes -130 |
| Tottenham 3 – 0 Bournemouth | Tottenham -210 | o2.5 -145 | No +100 |
| Southampton 1 – 2 Crystal Palace | Palace +170 | o2.5 +125 | Yes -115 |
| Chelsea 1 – 2 Brighton | Brighton +170 | o2.5 -110 | Yes -145 |
| Everton 1 – 0 Fulham | Everton +105 | u2.5 -150 | No -115 |
| Wolves 1 – 1 Brentford | Draw +225 | u2.5 -155 | Yes -110 |
| Man City 4 – 0 Leicester | Man City -550 | o2.5 -275 | No -125 |
| West Ham 1 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -180 | o2.5 -130 | Yes -125 |
| Notts Forest 1 – 1 Man United | Draw +310 | u2.5 +105 | Yes -125 |
| Leeds 2 – 1 Liverpool | Leeds +330 | o2.5 -175 | Yes -170 |
| Season totals | 28/75 | 43/75 | 33/75 |
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.
Stack the D
Everton - three clean sheets in five home games since Sean Dyche's appointment. Fulham will be missing top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović and have just one goal in their last three games. Everton lacks a viable midfield or attacking option so going heavy on their defense and/or 'keeper makes sense.
Unloved nuggets
Jacob Ramsey - Has three goal involvements in his last four games, playing 90 minutes in three of them. Villa has scored two or more in four straight games and rostered in less than 1% of teams, Ramsey could be a sneaky provider of points again this week.
Avoid the trap
Andreas Pereira - The suspension of Aleksandar Mitrović has left a huge hole in Fulham's attack and while Pereira does have 13 goal involvements this season, ten of them are assists. In what is set to be a low-scoring game, the chances of Pereira providing a decent points return aren't great and the 13.4% of FPL managers rostering him might be tempted to bench him this week.
For the watchlist
Eberechi Eze - Eze's 104 points this season is the most among all Crystal Palace players and he's picked up a goal and an assist in the two games since Roy Hodgson took charge. The season Eze played under Hodgson, he had 12 goal involvements (22 starts) and tallied 125 FPL points. Six of Palace's seven remaining games after this week come against teams currently placed 10th or lower.
Lock of the week
Erling Haaland - This shouldn't come as a surprise and backing Haaland isn't much of a prediction. But I actually fancy him to notch his fifth league hat trick of the season and I'm confident of at least two goal involvements for the league's top scorer. His four hat tricks have all come at home and he's registered at least one goal involvement in all but one home EPL game this season.
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
More Betting and DFS Picks
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