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Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/12/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
It's been a fantastic start to the MLB season from both a fan's perspective and a bettor's. We are seeing some awesome pitching and hitting performances nightly with exciting finishes quite regularly. I'm Thunder Dan Palyo and I anchor our DFS and Betting teams here at RotoBaller, and I hope you are enjoying our team's daily picks. I have to say, I think we have been on quite a roll so far this season and it's my turn today to pick you a few winners of my own.
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We have a loaded Wednesday slate with games spread out across the afternoon and evening. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -180
OAK: Ken Waldichuk| BAL: Dean Kremer
This is easily my favorite pick of the day! These teams combined for 19 runs last night and today they will roll out some considerably worse pitchers than they did last night. The Orioles are simply smashing lefties so far this year with a .396 wOBA as a team and the second-best wRC+ in the league at 154. Ryan Mountcastle homered twice last night and has three of them so far in this series. I know I will have a little action on his HR prop at +425 considering Waldichuk has a 14.8% barrel rate and simply isn't missing any bats. Austin Hays has two homers off lefties in this series, too, and his prop is set at +600, that's a solid value, too.
RYAN MOUNTCASTLE GRAND SLAM
HE HAS 9 RBIs
BALTIMORE IS BUZZIN pic.twitter.com/0jVGHbcHLn
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 12, 2023
Dean Kremer hasn't been very good either as he brings a 5.2 SIERA into this one and we saw Oakland's bats perk up last night, too. I know Camden Yards is less of a hitter's park than it used to be, but that hasn't slowed down this Baltimore offense at all. If you have less confidence in Oakland holding up their end of the bargain, then you could simply just bet the Orioles team total to go over 4.5 runs at -130 on DraftKings, too. I will probably bet this game a number of ways, but the easiest thing to do is just hit the over on the game total. I won't be surprised if it moves to an even 9 runs by later this afternoon.
If you like trends, then you'll love hearing that Baltimore has hit the over in 63% of their games and Oakland in 70% of their games so far this year, too.
Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -275
DET: Eduardo Rodriguez | TOR: Kevin Gausman
The Jays went down early last night and their starter Alek Manoah really labored in the early going. But he held down the fort long enough for the big Toronto bats to give the Jays plenty of offense as they cruised to a 9-3 win in the series opener.
Tonight we have an even bigger mismatch on the mound as the Blue Jays' true ace, Kevin Gausman takes the bump against the artist formerly known as "E-Rod." Rodriguez's best days are behind him it seems and he's been abjectly bad since coming to Detroit. This year he's sporting a 5.87 SIERA and only a 14% K rate through his first two starts. That's simply not going to play well against Toronto's lineup of right-handed power hitters. The Jays are averaging 5.7 runs per game so far this year and I think it's quite likely they keep the bats rolling in this matchup tonight.
When I bet run lines, I look for pitching mismatches, but I also want to make sure the team I am betting on has an advantage on offense and with their starting pitcher as well. We already established that Toronto has the advantage with their bats against E-Rod, but Gausman has a very favorable matchup against the Tigers' anemic offense, too. Detroit has the third-worst wRC+ in baseball against RHP and Gausman is off to a great start again this year posting a 3.51 SIERA and a 27.5% K%. I have him pegged for 7 strikeouts tonight and will be adding his K prop to my betting card as well (over 6.5k at -125).
Pick: Toronto run line -1.5 (-135) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.35 units to win 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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