RADIO
It is the week after the Masters and if you like to get thrifty, like me, this week will be full of deals on golfers that many people had for the major and now want to get rid of heading into a new event that is a completely different course to what they just played last week. Some golfers may suit this week better than last and vice versa.
If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics and few more sneaky tips that can help you along your journey of building a player pool that can provide you with both short term and long term upside.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
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ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in)
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my Masters model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards (usually #/600 edition tier) on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
Supply and Demand
We have another elevated event this week, which means that we get a field loaded full of superstars once again. This means that there are no real must haves at the top of the market as the talent is evenly distributed in that range. With the field most likely ranging between 142-132 golfers, there will be double the players in the field this week compared to the Masters. This means that the supply of golfers will increase, especially if people are wanting to get rid of cards they acquired for the Masters.
With a relative increase in supply this week we can expect pricing to be cheaper than last week, which makes me think this is the week to buy instead of sell, especially if you have a strong belief in a particular golfer that may be undervalued alongside the handful of superstars teeing up with him. I think you probably want to hold on to your cards this week and wait for a few non-elevated events that will have more sporadic assortments of superstars in them, driving their price up those weeks, allowing you to sell high if you don't plan on entering them into contests.
Short Term Targets Playing This Week
These are some of the golfers we will want to target if you are looking to buy at a relatively low price and enter into your lineups for contests this week. The model is suggesting that the "Min Market Price" for RARE cards is lower than our calculated price for that golfer. As mentioned above, the prices of all but one top-priced golfer have gone down since Masters week (market trend column above).
Patrick Cantlay is seemingly a functionable putter away from winning an event here soon. He has the best course history of the field at Harbour Town and grades out as the 2nd best golfer in my model behind Scottie Scheffler. Harbour Town has a really sticky course history correlation to success and if there ever was a week to load up on Cantlay, it would be this week. The market is still undervaluing his price for someone who could win any event at any moment, while providing an immensely high floor.
Tony Finau is currently $80 on the open market, yet my model seems to think he should be somewhere near $100. He is so consistent, with his upside lacking a little, but at this price he is GREAT value for what he is going to provide you week in and week out. He should see his price trend upwards if he can continue his consistent run of top-25 finishes, with a few top 5s readjusting that price quickly and lining our pockets with a) A cheap stud b) A stud who we can sell for profit.
Collin Morikawa is currently priced at $69 on the open market. His game suits this golf course really well and he is the best iron player in the world, yet is priced at a very affordable price for someone who will be a definite contender at the remaining three majors as well as this week at a course that he can lean on his accuracy off the tee.
Some cheaper golfers that I am loading up on this week, who can be used for "Bank Roll Builder" contests and with a few good performances, could see their price soar: Brendon Todd, Taylor Moore, Russell Henley, Nick Taylor, Adam Svensson, Kurt Kitayama, Matt Kuchar, and Tom Hoge.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Long Term Targets Playing This Week
These are golfers who may not necessarily suit this week's demands (or maybe they do) but appear to be undervalued for what they are capable of providing over the duration of a season.
Jon Rahm appears to be one of the only top golfers to have committed to the Mexico Open and we could see his min price of a RARE card push up to $300 by the time that week rolls into town as his demand will sky rocket courtesy of the lack of supply of golfers of his caliber in a very weak field, on a course that is tailor made for his game. If you have the budget to do so, buy double what you typically would, and then you can still use half of those cards the week of, while selling the other half.
Tyrrell Hatton was going for $125-$150 at the Valero and is now $42? He is one of the better golfers on tour and now that he has managed to get through Augusta, he should start showing up a little more often on leaderboards again. His price just does not make sense for the quality of golf he can provide you with at $42.
Tony Finau will continue to feature himself in the long term prospect section as I believe he should be priced at $100+. Although it is not yet confirmed, Finau did play the Mexico Open last year and may do so again this year? If he does choose to head south, he would easily be a top 5 player in the field.
Cameron Young could very land up being one of the top-5 golfers in the world. Once he gets that first win, he will be unstoppable, as his length off the tee and his incredible iron play is just so powerful and translates to many different courses, with majors fitting his game the best. He also finished T3 at Harbour Town last year so he could be a short term pick up as well as long term slow burn.
Targets Not Playing This Week
These are golfers who are not playing this week. Their market prices are all popping as underpriced in comparison to what the Model has them set at.
Jason Day had a meltdown over the weekend at the Masters, but his consistency this year has been incredible. Keep an eye on his price as he and Rory will not be playing this week. People will to improve the cash flow for the week and may dump him at a discount as he is not providing them with any immediate value.
Jhonnatan Vegas has committed to the Mexico Open and his game could not suit that course any better, as he has length and incredible long iron play. He will be somebody I start loading up on here.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
Useful Resources
I have had two revered guests on my Podcast where we strictly talk about ReignMakers that go into the basics and nuances of their process and approach each week. I do a weekly ReignMaker show with @DraftMasterFlex on Mondays at 7ET if you want to tune into that for some more ReignMaker information that we will be discussing.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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