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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 3/30/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
Welcome to the 2023 MLB regular season! The 162-game grind is upon us and I'm thrilled to be working with RotoBaller delivering free MLB bets this season! I've been handicapping baseball for more than a decade and certainly looking forward to a profitable season ahead!
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I'll keep track of my record and units for written picks throughout the season while you can also follow on on Twitter @BKemp17 for any additional picks as well as some DFS advice! With further ado, let's get to it and check out some betting plays for Thursday's Opening Day action!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SD (-210)
COL: German Marquez | SD: Blake Snell
We'll open the season with an NL West division tilt between the Rockies and Padres from San Diego.
Right-hander German Marquez predictably gets the ball on Opening Day for the visitors as he looks to bounce back from a poor 2022 showing. Marquez was a workhorse for the Rockies, making 31 starts and tossing 181 2/3 innings, but scuffled to a 4.95 ERA on the season. Home run issues persisted as he posted a 1.49 HR/9 while his strikeout rate fell to a career-low 19.3%.
One thing Marquez has done well in his career is pitching on the road where he owns a 3.76 ERA including a 3.34 mark from a season ago.
Former AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell gets the Opening Day nod for the Padres as looks to build on a strong 2022 campaign. Snell turned in a 3.38 ERA and 32% K% across 24 starts last season but averaged just over five innings per start. Nonetheless, his excellent work was supported by a 2.80 FIP and 3.20 SIERA. Snell also dominated to the tune of a 2.70 ERA and 22% K-BB% at Petco Park last season.
As well as Marquez has pitched away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field in Colorado this Padres lineup is chock-full of superstar talent. They won't get Fernando Tatis Jr. back until Opening Day but have added Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts since the 2022 trade deadline. San Diego ranked 13th with 4.35 runs per game last season and stands to give the top five a serious go this season.
Add in Snell and a Padres bullpen that ranked ninth with a 3.58 FIP last season and the Padres should be able to open the season with a home win on the run line.
Pick: Padres run line (+100) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Philadelphia Phillies @ Texas Rangers
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: TEX -134
PHI: Aaron Nola | TEX: Jacob deGrom
Opening Day always features numerous mouth-watering pitching matchups but this contest between the Phillies and Rangers could very well take the cake.
The Phillies send Aaron Nola to the mound following a fantastic performance last season. In fact, the right-hander's 6.3 fWAR paced all MLB starting pitchers while he posted a 3.25 ERA/2.58 FIP along with an elite 25.5% K-BB%, fourth-best in all of baseball. With a FIP of 3.37 or better in six of the last seven seasons, Nola continues to be one of the most reliable starting pitchers in the sport.
For the second straight winter, the Rangers went on a spending splurge, this time landing former Mets ace Jacob deGrom. It was a calculated risk considering deGrom has made just 25 starts due to arm issues over the last two seasons while he dealt with left-side soreness this spring, an issue that will force a pitch limit on the right-hander Thursday.
Nonetheless, deGrom has pitched to a 2.43 ERA or better in four of the last five seasons and worked to a 3.08 mark -- albeit with a lights-out 2.13 FIP and 39.3% K-BB% -- across 11 starts last season.
The Phillies' offense was dealt a devastating blow when Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL late in camp but it's also a group that added all-world shortstop Trea Turner. Of course, Bryce Harper continues to rehab after undergoing Tommy John surgery while Nick Castellanos is a strong bounce-back candidate following a down 2022 season. Alex Bohm has breakout promise after slugging four homers in 56 spring at-bats.
The Phillies also sport one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. They added former Tigers closer Gregory Soto in a trade this winter and also signed future Fall of Famer Craig Kimbrel. Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado also represent excellent high-leverage arms.
This game could very well come down to how the Rangers' bullpen fares following a shortened exit from deGrom. With Nola going ahead of what should be a strong Phillies bullpen, it could be a tough day for the Rangers' bats.
Look for the Phillies to open the season with a road upset against the Rangers.
Pick: Phillies money line (+116) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck folks and let's get after it this season!
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