Tyler Anderson - 2023 Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts

This offseason saw Tyler Anderson remain in California and make the switch from the Dodgers to the Angels, signing a three-year, $40 million contract. It was a reward for Anderson, who signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Dodgers last offseason and finished up having a career year.

But where does the move leave his stock in a fantasy sense? Coming off his best season, you might think Anderson is a lock as a fantasy option. While that may be the case, it might not be as clear-cut as you expect it to be. But why would I say that?

You're about to find out. But before you do, make sure you're following RotoBaller on Twitter for all the latest MLB news and articles. And don't forget to check out the site for all your draft and in-season support. Without further ado, let's take a closer look at Tyler Anderson, shall we?

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Soft Contact King

Anderson's career year was solely down to the quality of contact he allowed. In 30 games (28 starts), Anderson had a 15-5 W-L record, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 138 Ks in 178.2 IP. With a 19.5% K%, which ranked in the 26th percentile, Anderson couldn't have the success he had without inducing weak contact.

Obviously, getting hitters to hit the ball weakly is an asset. I'm not going to try and spin it any other way. And having a 4.8% BB% will certainly help you when you are striking many guys out. The question for Anderson is, how was he able to take nearly two full runs off his ERA from 2021 when the quality of contact he allowed only improved a bit?

Smoke And Mirrors

Well, luck played its part in Anderson's success. No one will be expecting a sub-3.00 ERA season again, and if we look at some of his numbers from 2021 and 2022, you'll see why a sub-4.00 ERA might not even be a given.

Anderson's underlying numbers were only slightly better last year than they were in 2021 so that drop in ERA seems unsustainable. Especially when you consider it came out of the blue from a pitcher in his seventh season in the Majors. Anderson certainly managed to fool hitters last year but you don't want to be fooled into believing a repeat is on the cards.

New Park And New Defense

We also need to factor in that Anderson will be on a new team, with a new defense behind him and a new ballpark to call home. Unfortunately, they are all downgrades for pitching. If we look at Statcast's park factors over the last three years, the Angels' ballpark ranked as the fourth-most hitter-friendly, while the Dodgers' ballpark was the eighth-most hitter-friendly. Not a huge downgrade, but a downgrade nonetheless.

And it's a similar story for the defense. Given Anderson's lack of strikeouts, he relies on his defense more than the majority of pitchers. And the Dodgers ranked 11th in Outs Above Average (OAA) while the Angels ranked 17th. The addition of Hunter Renfroe should improve things for the Angels and again, it's not a huge downgrade for Anderson on last year, but another downgrade nonetheless.

Spring Has Sprung

Anderson has had a very light workload in spring so far. With Opening Day eight days away, Anderson made just his second appearance, taking his total to 8.0 IP. He did throw 82 pitches on Tuesday in his second outing so he appears close to ready to begin the season and the results have been good. Anderson is yet to allow a run and has given up just three hits while striking out four. But he has also allowed four walks.

The concern is Anderson's fastball velocity appears to be down. His 90.7 mph average fastball velocity last year only ranked in the sixth percentile, so it's not like he needs to be a flamethrower to get the weak contact, but his fastball only averaged 88.8 mph on Tuesday and is something that's worth noting. Like so much of what we've already covered, it's not a huge deal but still something that warrants a downgrade.

Summary

If we look at the five standard pitching categories in fantasy, Anderson isn't set to be much help in anything other than WHIP. After picking up 15 wins last year, the 2023 Angels aren't set to be any better than the 2022 Dodgers. And we also need to factor in that the Angels will continue with their six-man rotation, limiting Anderson's workload.

Last year, Shohei Ohtani was the only Angels pitcher to top 150.0 IP with Patrick Sandoval coming in second with 148.2 IP (27 starts). That might leave double-digit wins barely within reach. Again for context, Ohtani led the team in wins with 15 with Jose Suarez and Michael Lorenzen being tied in second place with eight wins apiece.

For a pitcher that doesn't strike out many, tallying a helpful number of strikeouts for your fantasy team is dependent on a higher workload. If we assume Anderson reaches 150.0 IP, based on his K/9 over the last two years, he will record 118 Ks. Last year, 89 pitchers recorded 118 or more strikeouts. That's relievers and starters.

We've already covered how Anderson should expect significant regression in his ERA, and he's obviously not helping in saves, so it's only his WHIP (1.12 since 2021) that is really helping your fantasy teams. His ADP is only ~272 on NFBC (77th SP) so it's not like he comes with a hefty price tag. But at that range, taking a gamble on someone else with upside seems like a far smarter play than picking a 33-year-old pitcher coming off a career year on a new team.

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