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The 2022-2023 NBA season is here, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and free throws made, in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Today, we will look at some single-stat scores for Tuesday, March 14.
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Single Stat NBA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Nikola Jokic UNDER 10.5 Assists: I'll start off today's slate with Nikola Jokic's assist prop. Jokic has failed to exceed this projection in six out of his last eight games, with an average of nine assists during that span. The Nuggets will be facing the Toronto Raptors tonight; a team Jokic has gone under 10.5 assists in all six previous matchups. In the Nuggets last game against the Raptors just at the beginning of this month, Jokic recorded a mere nine assists. The books have set -135 odds for Jokic to go under 10.5 assists, while my prop model projects him to have 8.45 assists. Given Jokic's recent game log, the books' odds, and my prop model, this play has great value.
Darius Garland OVER 21.5 Points: Next up, let's talk about Darius Garland's points prop. In three of his last five games, Garland has surpassed this projection, averaging 24 points during that span. Tonight, he faces the Charlotte Hornets, a defense that allows the most points to their opponents in the NBA, making this a favorable matchup for Garland. In the Cavaliers previous meeting with the Hornets just two days ago, Garland recorded 28 points. The books have Garland at -135 odds to go over 21.5 points, while some books have him at 22.5 points with relatively even odds, which gives us a one-point margin. My prop model predicts Garland to score 26.38 points, increasing my confidence in this play. As long as the game remains competitive, Garland should have no problem covering this line.
Kelly Oubre Jr. OVER 20.5 Points: I'll wrap things up going right back to that Cavaliers-Hornets matchup, this time looking at Kelly Oubre Jr.'s points prop. Oubre has surpassed this projection in four of his last five games, with an average of 24.8 points during that span. In tonight's game, he faces the Cleveland Cavaliers, a team he recently scored 24 points against. Since LaMelo Ball's injury, Oubre has been in exceptional form, with a usage rate of 26.3 percent in games without Ball. Over his last five games, Oubre has taken a high total of 87 shots while shooting 47.5 percent. The books have him listed at -130 odds to exceed 20.5 points, while some have him at 21.5 points with even odds, resulting in a one-point margin. My prop model also likes this play, projecting Oubre to score 22.20 points. Given Oubre's recent shooting volume and efficiency, he should have no difficulty covering this line.
Other Recommendations - Donovan Mitchell UNDER 4.5 Assists, Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 28.5 PA, Nikola Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds, Josh Giddey OVER 5.5 Assists.
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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