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The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The Valspar Championship. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
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One and Done Selections - The Valspar Championship
In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!
Joe Nicely - Davis Riley
Alternate - Justin Suh
When looking for OAD options for the Valspar Championship, it doesn’t take long to notice the differences in this event and what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, as a noticeably weaker field will tackle a difficult Copperhead Course in the final loop of the Florida Swing.
It’s a recipe for volatility, which we can approach by being super conservative or uber aggressive. It will be the latter for me this week, as I’ll take a swing with last year’s Valspar runner-up, Davis Riley.
To an extent, we're still figuring out who Riley is as a player, though I have no doubt there’s loads of talent there. During his short time on the PGA Tour, his results have been erratic. That said, when things are good, they're really good, as a three-month stretch last year that included a runner-up in this event, top-fives at the Mexico Open & Charles Schwab, top-15s at the PGA Championship, Memorial, and Byron Nelson clearly shows, not to mention a couple of brilliant rounds on a rugged Bay Hill layout in the recent API. Riley has all the tools needed to handle this golf course.
Yearly Earnings - $1,931,556
Yearly Cuts Made - 8/9
Josh Bennett - Tommy Fleetwood
Alternate - Denny McCarthy
A warning for anyone reading this right off the bat: I’ve put about 3 minutes of research total into the Valspar this week (thx Covid). So, here’s my reasoning for Tommy this week. I was watching Tommy at the Genesis and something in my brain was like, you know what, Tommy might mess around and win a golf tournament this year. Eye test only. I carry that thought to today, where he comes in with average recent results, average form statistically, and a decent finish at this event last year. Doesn’t scream TOURNAMENT WINNER anywhere really, but, I remember this thought from the Genesis and I’m not sure he’ll be in a field the rest of the year better suited for it to happen, so, why not, we roll with Tommy based on the eye test from the Genesis. Very solid analysis, I know. If it works out, I just might stick with this method going forward!
Yearly Earnings - $2,455,862
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/9
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Spencer Aguiar - Justin Thomas
Alternate - Justin Rose
It doesn't take a genius to realize things have not gone as expected for me in 'One and Done' contests so far this year. It took nine events to eclipse the one million mark, but I've decided to throw caution to the wind and go "best available" from here on out.
Maybe that is not the best strategy since I need the high-end upside that a player like Justin Thomas might be able to bring for an elevated event, although things are not working how I am doing them now. Something needs to change.
My model believes Thomas is the most likely winner of the Valspar Championship this week, and his perfect score of grading inside the top 10 of every category I ran will hopefully translate into a big result. Everyone knows I could use that from our hero this week.
Yearly Earnings - $1,021,154
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/9
Byron Lindeque - Sam Ryder
Max Homa’s $736,607 for sixth place could have easily been doubled had he just made par on 17. Instead, a wind induced double bogey spoil the party for the Ketchup Kings, although, having not played any of Scottie or Rahm yet, the party seems to have run its course as I have failed, as consistency is NOT the name of the game in OAD. Winning prize money is the difference maker.
Sam Ryder is going to be that difference maker for us this week. The 2nd best putter in the field (L24) is also the 8th best iron player when prorating approach proximities to match Innisbrook. He has been playing fantastic golf lately, in elevated events, which means that if he can survive the wind, he has all this momentum that will only have to go up against a handful of top-tier players like Spieth and Thomas.
Based off of Ryder’s physique, he probably doesn’t endorse the use of an abundance of Ketchup, which we are in desperate need of in 634th of 790 entrants, having had my golfer make it through 14 of 16 cuts. Ryder was at the top of the leaderboard at the Farmers Insurance Open for most of the week, ultimately finishing 4th. In this field, he definitely can overcome his nightmarish course history, playing the best golf of his career.
Yearly Earnings - $2,871,546
Yearly Cuts Made - 8/9
Andrew Putters - Tommy Fleetwood
Alternate - Matthew Fitzpatrick
This guy is destined to win at some point, right? Tommy Fleetwood has shown really good form as of late, and The Copperhead Course fits his style of play. He also finished first in my model by a large margin over the field. So for me, it’s a no-brainer to play him this weekend. We just have to get that putter rolling a little.
Yearly Earnings - $2,220,558
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/9
Mia The Model - Taylor Moore
Alternate - Jordan Spieth
Byron T20
(Past Selections Have Been Removed)
TeeOff T20
Aggregated Results
One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Jordan Spieth got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 15% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Justin Suh through Victor Perez – seven golfers that received between 4-5% of the projected pick equity.
We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Taylor Moore this week as the selection and Jordan Spieth as the alternate. (All names used previously were removed).
Let us know what you think of her chances this week!
Yearly Earnings - $7,001,086
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/9
Running Totals
Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!
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