RADIO
Byron's round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and rankings for FanDuel, DraftKings.
Jon Rahm sits at the top of the leaderboard once...... >record scratch< .... he actually played really badly today for the first time in what feels like eternity and those of us who played Rory instead of Rahm (30% of us - woof) finally reaped the rewards...kinda. There really is just no winning with Rahm it seems. Corey Conners shot 66 (-6) and lead the field in fantasy points, taking advantage of the rather benign conditions this morning. He has great course history here which makes a lot of sense in hindsight, but his putter gaining more than 2 strokes in a round, does not make sense.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
Highest-Owned Golfers
Notice the amount of green AM tee times. This will be even more pronounced in tomorrow's slate, with winds looking to be brutal as the day progresses.
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 3 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
Trying to predict the weather is starting to seem rather impossible. The afternoon played about half a shot more difficult despite experiencing "significantly more wind" than the AM wave. Something else to mention is the rules committee and course superintendents seem to have drenched the course in anticipation of the winds we expected today. They may lay off the water going forward which will make the afternoon much drier and crusty, resulting in scoring being a little more difficult for the afternoon wave.
Round 3 Power Rankings
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $10K Drive The Green $5 Single Entry contest, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Jon Rahm had a bit of a meltdown today on his second nine, but we can expect the Spaniard to return to the form he has displayed so consistently throughout the season. His R3 scoring is not the best but that is usually because he is around the top of the leaderboard. Sitting a few shots back is EXACTLY where he feels most comfortable and hopefully the majority of ownership falls on Rory who had a great R2 and is the cheapest of the "Big 3".
Scottie Scheffler made a massive move up the leaderboard last year on Saturday and that is validated by the incredible round 3 scoring average which is the 2nd best on the slate. He has yet to really unleash his true potential this event. Expect him to do so tomorrow.
$9,000+
Tony Finau and Will Zalatoris both sit a little further down the leaderboard, particularly Will, but both have sensational R3 scoring averages very close to Scottie's, which we are hoping to capitalize on tomorrow. Patrick Cantlay is going to be rather chalky, but his consistency and ability to dominate Par 5s are what will have us eating his chalk. All three of these golfers provide the upside that can be found in the $10k range, at a price and ownership discount (excluding Cantlay's ownership).
$8,000+
We will be looking to take advantage of Sungjae Im tomorrow, alongside Keagan Bradley and Jason Day, who will come in much less owned than the Korean. Bradley barely made the cut after shooting 77 (+5). He will be someone we lean on most as he will provide a lot of leverage sitting in T53 right now. Jason Day is playing much better golf lately and now that he has made the cut maybe he can play a little more freely and start rolling in the putts we have seen him make over the last few weeks.
$7,000+
Shane Lowry is the first Irishman we look to roster heavily as he has a fantastic around-the-green game and is comfortable in the wind. He shot -2 today and will look to carry that momentum into the weekend. Tommy Fleetwood shot level par today, but hopefully, he can bounce back tomorrow after making a triple-bogey in R2. One hole has him in T41 vs T13 had he made par there. Seamus Power and Si Woo Kim both sit far down the leaderboard and will get softer, less windy conditions early in the morning. Power limped into the clubhouse but has shown he can get hot at any given moment. Will Gordon sits in a similar situation in T53 and is also an explosive golfer who has flashed round-of-the-day potential in less stacked fields before.
$6,000+
The entire $6k range in the screenshot above will be going off in the morning after some mediocre golf so far. One of these golfers will score close to 40 points, giving our lineups a boost and freeing up salary to load up a few more reliable, higher-upside studs at the top of the slate. Aaron Baddeley intrigues me as his short game is really impressive and a few long puts or chip-ins can grab him a bunch of points. Emilliano Grillo has been hot and cold in both rounds he has played so far. If he can give us a complete round, we will be looking good in this range.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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