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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 21st, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 21st, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/21/23
The trade market is starting to open up and more and more moves will be made as we get closer to the trade deadline – March 3rd –. Be aware of late-minute scratches. Tonight we have a 9-game slate and two teams playing on a back-to-back: Anaheim and Philadelphia. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Tampa Bay with 4.7, Edmonton with 4.6 and New Jersey with 4.4 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this nine-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Stuart Skinner- DK $8.2K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
After being held out of the Sunday loss to the Avalanche due to sickness, Skinner should start here. Neither goalie for Edmonton has been consistent and successful at the same time this season with Skinner being the go-to option most nights. After the Oilers played a great game in a loss on Sunday that should not have happened – thanks to Jack Campbell giving up four unanswered goals –, Skinner will have his chance to take over once more. In his last five starts, he has just 1 win and he posted only two games above a 0.900 Save Percentage. Luckily the Flyers are in the bottom third of the league in Scoring Chances For Per 60, High Danger Chances For Per 60 and Goals For Per 60. This provides a great bounce-back spot for Skinner.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Andersen (DK $8.3K || FD $8.5K), Copley (DK $7.6K || FD $7.6K)
Centers
Ryan O’Reilly-DK $4.4K || FD $4.7K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
O’Reilly will play in his third game tonight as a Toronto Maple Leaf and his first two games have not been bad. O’Reilly started as a wing in his debut, before quickly moving over to center a line with John Tavares and Mitch Marner. In O’Reilly’s two performances so far, he has 1 assist and 3 shots. The ex-Blue will never be a shot player and he does not drive to the net, however, he pulls defenders in and sets up his linemates with great vision and passing. This will be showcased with two great finishers on his line in Toronto. Look for Tavares and Marner to see an increase in shot volume as well. For this salary centering a potent second-line for the Maple Leafs in a fast-paced matchup, it is a ‘lock’.
Jack Eichel- DK $7.7K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Eichel is in one of the ‘top’ spots of the night. Chicago is expected to roll out Petr Mrazek in net after Jaxson Stauber started in the 5-3 win over the Maple Leafs on Sunday. Out of all goalies starting 5 or more games, Mrazek is the 10th worst goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -0.459 –. Furthermore, over the season, Chicago is the third-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 33.44 –, High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 13.4 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 3.16 – and they are the second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.57 –. Through Eichel’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 3 assists and 18 shots. This is easily one of the better spots at center tonight with a plethora of top-tier options.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hughes (DK $8.8K || FD $10K), Point (DK $7K || FD $8.1K)
Wings
Brandon Hagel- DK $5.7K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Taking it to the east coast with another blow-up potential matchup, we have Brandon Hagel. The Ducks are playing on a back-to-back on the road after losing a winnable game against the Panthers 4-3 in overtime and now they face an arguably better team in the Lightning. The Ducks, over the season, are easily the worst defense in the league by an eye test and statistically, they are as well. They are the worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 38.66 –, Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 35.57 –, High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 16.62 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 3.59 –. Hagel himself has not been doing much either though, with 3 goals, 2 assists and 16 shots in his last five games – all 5 points came in two games –. However, this is a great chance for Hagel and the Lightning to break any scoring slumps and have a dominant night in a great spot.
Warren Foegele- DK $3.2K || FD $3.8K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
The Oilers are attempting one last hurrah with a few ideas before they start making any moves in the trade market and the latest lineup shake has found ex-Erie Otter teammate Warren Foegele on McDavid’s line along with Jesse Puljujarvi. Either option is a worthwhile ‘punt’ as they are similar in salary, however, Foegele has been producing more peripherals. In the move to the top line in his first game he scored 2 goals and took 3 shots, despite neither goal being assisted by his linemates. The Flyers are another team playing on a back-to-back on the road after beating Calgary yesterday 4-3. This should give Foegele a bit more space to produce here. In his last five games, he has 2 goals, 1 assist and 14 shots.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Teravainen (DK $5.1K || FD $5.8K), Mercer (DK $3.8K || FD $4.9K)
Defense
Shea Theodore- DK $6.4K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
It is safe to say, Theodore is a gift to Vegas from the hockey gods. In his five games since returning from another injury, he has 2 goals, 5 assists, 13 shots and 6 blocked shots. As aforementioned, the Blackhawks are a terrible defensive team with the expectation that the lesser of their two netminders will start tonight puts Theodore in a big spot to add to his season numbers and keep in mind that he also quarterbacks the top power-play for Vegas.
Christian Wolanin- DK $2.5K || FD $3.6K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
Wolanin is the ultimate ‘punt’ play on tonight’s slate. It is rather difficult to find ‘value’ plays at defense that have a ceiling via a power-play role. Wolanin at the very least will see some time on special teams, taking over for Ekman-Larsson as the second power-play unit quarterback. In his season debut, he had 1 shot and 1 blocked shot. The production is less than ideal and we will need more for us to get true value out of him in the lineup. Luckily, it could have just been a case of nerves with the defender posting 6 goals and 49 assists in 55 appearances for the Abbotsford Canucks of the AHL this season. In order to afford the higher-salaried players tonight, we will need to cut costs somewhere and this is the most viable spot to do it.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rielly (DK $5.1K || FD $5.9K), McCabe (DK $4K || FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- TB1
- NJ1
- VGK1
- TOR1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- VGK: Theodore-Eichel-Marchessault
Chalk Stack
- TB: Stamkos-Point-Kucherov
Sneaky Stack
- DET: Bertuzzi-Larkin-Seider
