RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Honda Classic

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One and Done Selections - The Honda Classic

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Shane Lowry 

Alternate - Chris Kirk

After two unbelievable weeks spent at Phoenix and Riviera, the PGA Tour now heads cross country to kick off an extended stay in Florida with the Honda Classic. In years past the Honda was one of the schedule’s top-tier events, but unfortunately the tournament has fell victim to several shifts in the Tour’s schedule.

As a result, the Honda has drawn just one player ranked inside the OWGR’s top 20 to PGA National this week. While there’s lots of reasons to utilize that player - Sungjae Im - in this spot, I’ll pivot to another golfer that possesses both a major championship pedigree and a strong history at the Honda…Shane Lowry.

Lowry put forth a tremendous 2022, suffering multiple near-misses on the PGA Tour before finally grabbing an international win at the BMW PGA Championship in the fall. One of the Irishman’s most painful misses was right here at PGA National, as he held the Honda title in his grasp before letting Sepp Straka through the backdoor. It wasn’t an outlier performance, as Lowry has made the cut in all five of his career starts in the Honda. Fresh off his best outing of 2023 at last week’s Genesis Invitational, I look for yet another stout outing from the former Champion Golfer of the Year in this edition.

Yearly Earnings - $1,043,436
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/6

Josh Bennett - Matt Kuchar

Alternate - Shane Lowry

Guys, we all know this week is a crap shoot and carnage will be everywhere, how you even pick a player for OAD based on a statistical method this week is beyond me. Nearly everyone that’s played this course that would be considered to have “good” course history, also has multiple years where they also just badly miss the cut, so we really don’t have anyone where we can just say “yeah, this guy never misses here, even if it’s a 25^th that’s cool”. So, that being said, I’m going to run down a different path for my pick this week in Kuchar. Stats are whatever- accurate driver, form is good, historically good iron player, gaining strokes recently in all 4 major categories, all great stuff if that matters to you. However, I’m looking at his #65 OWGR ranking as the big reason for the play this week. Why is that important? Top finishes for Kuchar this week and over the next few weeks are going to be extra important for him, as he’ll need to drop that ranking into the top 50 (or win) if he wants a spot in the Masters. With more difficult events like the API, Players, and Match Play coming up, I think it's important for him to capitalize in a field like this to pave the way to that top 50 ranking. Assuming he knows that, it should fuel the fire a little bit and I hope to see him lurking in contention by the time Sunday rolls around.

Yearly Earnings - $626,112
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/6

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Spencer Aguiar - Aaron Wise

Alternate - Taylor Pendrith

What a piss poor start it has been in 'One and Done' contests. I hadn't missed more than three cuts in any year of us playing this game over the past few seasons, but bad finishes, lousy starts and very minimal win equity has started 2023 about as flawed as you can imagine from a game theory standpoint.

Fortunately, all is not lost when we dive into the ensemble of players I still have at my disposal, but my move up the leaderboard has to start at some point if we want to give ourselves a real chance at cashing in most competitions this year.

While a frail Honda Classic board might not be the best opportunity for us to strike ourselves back into contention, it may be the perfect chance to swing for the fence on Aaron Wise -- a golfer that my model has been overly bullish on for the past few months.

Wise ranks second in this field when looking at strokes gained total on fast Bermuda over the past two years, and his third-place grade for weighted scoring and seventh-place mark for bogey avoidance should provide a built-in floor to tackle this problematic PGA National test. As I keep saying, we are one big cash away from being right back in the middle of everything.

Yearly Earnings - $652,804
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/6

Byron Lindeque - Byeong Hun An

Tommy Fleetwood should be called Tommy Retreat-wood, with his weekend consisting of just bobbing around the Gensis Ocean like a directionless plank. Apparently Tommy was satisfied with his five strokes gained to make the cut and then drifted slowly (losing -0.2 strokes) to a lack-luster T20 and $197K. Only three people out of the 700 in my OAD contest had him selected this week, but he failed to provide the upside we, at Ketchup Kings LLC, seek to gain on the OAD battleground. Disappointing, but we move on to the Honda Classic!

The general theme of my card this week is to find golfers who will most successfully avoid hazard-ridden tee balls. Byeong Hun An ranks 133rd in the field in accuracy off the tee and 102nd in good drives gained, which are two very misleading stats when playing a 7,100 yard Par 70. For golfers who have played at least 20 rounds on Par 70/71 courses less than 7,200 yards, Ben ranks fourth in strokes gained off the tee.

This ability to reign in the accuracy off the tee, is supported by his past success at PGA National, finishing MC, T4, T36, T5 the last four times he has teed it up here. Incredibly, he has gained an average of two-thirds of a shot off the tee in his 14 rounds, losing a total of only half a stroke in the two rounds he mysteriously lost driving the ball. His approach play here has also been sensational, averaging a stroke per round with his irons.

If he can continue to repeat his ball-striking brilliance at this venue, Benny An enters the week as the best player around the greens in my model, making him a tee-to-green machine. But, An has been terrible at putting, lately, and in his four starts at PGA National. However, it is a gamble we are willing to take, with hopes that the putter performs and the rest of his game provides the magic sauce to rack up our first OAD winner winner, chicken dinner! 

Yearly Earnings - $1,561,823
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/6

Andrew Putters - Billy Horschel

Alternate - Aaron Wise

The Florida Gator makes so much sense this week at The Honda. The total scoring is going to be low relevant to par. Billy’s par 4 scoring is very good. Billy thrives on Bermuda greens. Billy thrives on difficult golf courses. Lastly, this is a home event for him. As much as I hate to say it, Billy Horschel most likely wins this week by 3 shots. 

Yearly Earnings - $1,392,370
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/5

Mia The Model - Sungjae Im

Alternate - Shane Lowry

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Sungjae Im got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 15% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in J.T. Poston, Ben Taylor and Davis Riley – three golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Sungjae Im this week as the selection and Shane Lowry as the alternate.

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings - $1,887,966
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/6

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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