RADIO
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The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skill sets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. Hopefully, this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate. We have ranked the top 20 golfers for most stats that I include in my model and have identified the most important stats as "the chef's recommendation".
The article ends with the "Fortune Cookie Filter" which includes all golfers who are above average in the stats that the chef recommends. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Kitchen
Weather this week:
The Menu (Course Breakdown)
TPC Scottsdale: Par, 71, Yardage: 7,261 Greens: Bermuda
The Model Settings:
The Usual (Course History)
Average Strokes Gained per Round @ TPC Scottsdale (min 6 rounds):
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peek at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over the last 24 rounds across the globe. Some events don't have Shotlink data so that column is also in there for reference.
Chefs' recommendation: SG Approach
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting this season.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
Any statistic that does not have a pink title is a baseline stat and is weighted 82% (2022) and 18% (2023) by season.
Chefs' recommendation: Good Drive %
Top 20 strokes gained off the tee:
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field:
Top 20 players gaining good drives:
Top 20 players with the most distance off the tee:
The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King! Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Weighted Proximity
Top 20 in baseline strokes gained approach
Top 20 in WEIGHTED proximity. We prorated all the proximity buckets by their projected rate of shots to get the best approach players across all proximities.
Eggs and Bacon (Around The Green)
Who likes to scramble their eggs? Who digests their fried eggs best? Let's find out. ***Full Disclosure: These metrics are VERY noisy as short game shots are very lie dependent and sample sizes are limited depending on what courses have been played etc. We are simply trying to get an understanding of who is good out of these lies, taking in the information with a pinch of salt, or sand, or blades of grass.
Chefs Recommendation: Around the Green
The 20 best around the green
The 20 best out the sand
The 20 best off the fringe
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
Chefs Recommendation: 5-15 feet
The 20 best putters in the field.
Top 20 putting from 5-15 feet
Top 20 putting on Bermuda:
Top 20 most improved on Bermuda:
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Bogey Avoidance
Top 20 scorers on medium courses
The 20 best birdie makers.
The 20-best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
The 20 best on Par 5s.
The Fortune Cookie Filter (Above Average in these Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these guys appear to be above average in areas the chef recommends.
- Course History
- Recent Approach
- Medium Course Scoring
- Good Drives Gained
- Weighted Proximity
- Around the green
- Putting 5-15
- Bogey Avoidance
Hopefully, this helped you narrow down your players with ease and success. Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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