RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

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One and Done Selections - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Jordan Spieth

Alternate - Tom Hoge

Anytime I roll out Jordan Spieth, it comes with feeling a weird combination of confidence and fear. That’s just the type of player that Spieth is and the type of sensation that backing him instills. For proof, you need to look no further than his bi-polar performance at the Sony Open a few weeks ago, an event in which he fired a dazzling 64 on Thursday to hold the first-round lead and then promptly followed up with a puzzling second-round 74 to miss the cut.

Such is the life of a Spieth truther…you take the spectacular rounds with the painful ones and live to fight another day, wondering when your guy will finally put it all together. Pebble Beach and the AT&T Pro-Am is an environment in which we’ve historically seen more good than bad from the Texan, and it seems as good a spot as any not named Augusta National, to get our chips in the middle and see how the board runs out.

A win in 2017 and back-to-back top-three finishes over the last two years tells us that minor trivialities like form and statistics matter very little for Spieth when it comes to Pebble, so I’m willing to toss all the numbers out the window, buckle up, and enjoy the ride this week…wherever it may take us.

Yearly Earnings - $341,150
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Josh Bennett - Maverick McNealy

Alternate - Matt Kuchar

To be completely honest with you all, I’m not sure it’s possible to be super confident in picking players for this event. Not only do you deal with the 3 course rotation, and in theory have to consider how weather/wind might effect each of the 3 for each day, you also have to consider that the rounds will take 7 hours and they are stuck playing with Amateurs in their groups that will be slapping balls into the ocean every 3 holes and racking up 50 putts. It’s nearly impossible to predict what’s going to happen here, so my pick in Mav this week is mostly because he’s one of the most consistent players on Tour and is just solid all around.

Recently he’s just been a cut-making machine, and although not *really* in contention, he has racked up a few top 10 finishes as well. I don’t really know what to think about course history, but he does have 2 top 5 finishes in this event in the last 3 years, so that might say something. I also like that this year, although HIS amateur partner isn’t great (14 handicap), he is playing with another Am in his group that is a scratch golfer, so I think that will help with the flow of the group and keep things moving. This is a great week to just pick a consistently solid player, so that’s where I went this time around.

Yearly Earnings - $384,683
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

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Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Viktor Hovland

Alternate - Maverick McNealy

Well, this has been a journey to land on Viktor Hovland. I wrote up Matthew Fitzpatrick almost 24 hours ago and had been waiting for all submissions to enter the mix before releasing the article, but after the news that Fitzpatrick might not be 100% healthy because of his neck injury, I have decided to shift in a different direction. I still lean toward keeping Fitz in your player pool if you are on the fence about the news in DFS. However, the information deterred me in 'One and Done' contests more than anything else since we only get one chance at every golfer.

Hovland placed alongside Fitzpatrick as the only two golfers in this field to grade inside the top 10 of every category that I ran this week, and the first-place mark for weighted tee-to-green should be viewed as a massive indicator that the upside is there for him to walk out of the week victorious.

Yearly Earnings - $366,125
Yearly Cuts Made - 1/3

Byron Lindeque - Brendon Todd

The Ketchup Kings stayed about as on brand as possible, suggesting to play Jason Day (T7, $282,750) and then forgetting to submit a golfer in my only OAD that I am in. However, we have em right where we want em, folks.

After leaving J Day to expire on the shelf, we are going to have to make a splash this week. Often when you are down on your luck and looking for guidance you lean on a mentor of sorts, who comes in the form of The Todd Father. Brendon Todd checks the three boxes that matter most here: Fruit Loops, Frosties, and Cheerios … whoops, wrong article. Accuracy off the tee, impressive wedge play, and excellent short game are what Brendon Todd excels at giving him a great chance to succeed here.

Course history is not as strong as we would like, but after missing the cut 5 years ago, his T16 last year leaves enough sauce in the bottle to get us through one more measly meal before restocking with some elite talent in an elevated event next week!

Yearly Earnings - $514,615
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Andrew Putters - Jordan Spieth

Alternate - Scott Stallings

I know that Jordan can be inconsistent at times, but that is not scaring me away from him this weekend. He has the best tournament history of anyone in the field in the last 5 years. He has those irons dialed in to a new level. I just hope we can hit the 2-foot putts…And also, not fall into a ravine.

Yearly Earnings - $392,750
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Mia The Model - Erik Van Rooyen

Alternate - Joel Dahmen

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Matthew Fitzpatrick got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 15% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Matthew NeSmith and Will Gordon – two golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Erik Van Rooyen this week as the selection and Joel Dahmen as the alternate.

Let us know what you think of her chances at Pebble Beach!

Yearly Earnings - $710,300
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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