NBA DFS Prop Picks for 1/18/23 - Monkey Knife Fight

Nine games Wednesday with fairly impressive point totals overall. There are plenty of options to choose from, but specifically there are four games leading the pack in terms of scoring potential. Since Nuggets versus Timberwolves hasn’t been posted and is a great matchup, be sure to wait and see what exactly is being offered.

Last night, across just four games, six players scored over 30-points, two surpassing 40-points. As All-Star season voting gets closer and closer to the pinnacle, players will be looking to make a statement each and every game, if they can. January-March is usually a ‘dead zone’ for the NBA, so while there will be plenty more explosive nights from stars that are still healthy and playing, you can still expect an increase in injury management before the post-season.

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ATL @ DAL

Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 34.5 Points – Trae Young (ATL) MORE 25.5 Points

The polarity of these two players is astounding. Luka Doncic has no ceiling and every game there’s an over that he will hit. On the other side, Trae Young’s stats have seen a serious drop and it’s been a while since we’ve seen his projected fall this low. Playing alongside Dejounte Murray has its perks, but clearly doesn’t benefit Young’s ability to score points. It’s hard to take the under when Young still has the green light and he’s scored at least 26-points in seven of his last nine games.

For Doncic, 35-points is a ridiculous number to take. By all means he has the usage, shot-attempts and trust of his teammates, it’s just still asking a lot. Don’t get me wrong, I won’t waver and take the under, but based on everything we’ve ever known about the NBA, scoring 35-points in a game has never been a 'gimmie' despite everything lining up to make it seem that way.

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CHA @ HOU

LaMelo Ball (CHA) MORE 26.5 Points – Jalen Green (HOU) MORE 21.5 Points

LaMelo Ball returned from a mid-season injury and has been playing at a higher level, mainly elevating his scoring output. With the Hornets currently on a five-game losing streak, it’s not like they are going to stray from what could potentially win them games. You’ll notice Charlotte isn’t getting blown out, but with Ball putting up near 30-points-a-night consistently, there’s no doubt that will be the one thing about this offense that stays constant.

With Alperen Sengun leading the charge, Jalen Green is still the top candidate when it comes to outright scoring, but he’s not the one conducting the offense and that can be seen as alarming. Green doesn’t show a ton of consistency and his production and usage tend to go hand-in-hand, however, since his point total has dropped drastically down to 22-points, most bettors should agree it’s a modest line. For someone who will still have a major say in the Rockets offense he’s not their go-to guy in the half-court offense, but he’s still one of their best playmakers and Houston is always desperate for scoring.

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IND @ OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) MORE 30.5 Points – Bennedict Mathurin (IND) MORE 19.5 Points

About time we see the rookies name up here. Bennedict Mathurin started the season hot, cooled-off and is now seeing a slight resurgence due to the Tyrese Haliburton injury. Unfortunately, we are in the midst of his lowest scoring game of the season, not to mention his last two games were underwhelming. Oklahoma City is by no means a cake-walk, but he should be able to get more shots up against a young defense.

The Pacers defense wasn’t very organized before Haliburton went down and missing Myles Turner sporadically doesn’t provide any support. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has dominated just about every frontcourt across the league and there’s not much to say regarding what lineup Indiana will put out there. If Gilgeous-Alexander is playing, we are taking the over.

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SAC @ LAL

LeBron James (LAL) MORE 33.5 Points – De’Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 24.5 Points

If there was someone on the Kings that was able to stop LeBron James from potentially posting his fourth 40-point game this season, we’d know about it. His projected 34-points is so high for the same reason Luka Doncic’s is 35. They have complete control of the offense, dictate who and where shots are being taken, and run the late-game offense. The Lakers rotation isn’t strong enough to rely on, so big leads are short-lived and James might be forced into breaking the scoring record sooner out of necessity.

Look at the last time these two teams played and tell me that you aren’t excited for what could happen tonight. Regardless of how you break it down, James and De’Aaron Fox’s usage is going to be high. The Lakers struggle to contain guards and their frontcourt doesn’t offer much relief. While they might be able to keep Domantas Sabonis from scoring, they won’t keep him off the boards just like they won’t be able to keep Fox from getting to the rim. This season, Fox hasn’t needed to hit many, if any, three-pointers to have high-scoring games and he should continue to NOT need the deep-ball tonight.

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