NFL Pick 'Em: Player Prop Picks for No House Advantage - Wild Card Weekend

The first two playoff games of the 2022-2023 NFL season did not disappoint, and Sunday's slate is bound to be equally exciting with so many fantasy football heavyweights set to suit up. Fortunately, if you missed out on Saturday's action, there is still time to get involved in the remaining Wild Card matchups by entering player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!

There are a total of six Pick 'Em contests still available this weekend, with three focused on Sunday's three-game slate and three centered around Monday night's single-game showdown. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $30,000!

Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Sunday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.

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How to Play on No House Advantage

The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.

For example, if you feel confident that Josh Allen will lead the Bills to a win through the air, you could select Allen's over 265.5 passing yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.

Once all of Sunday's games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Sunday slate picks.

Higher Confidence Picks - Wild Card Weekend (Sunday Slate)

Jaylen Waddle (vs. BUF) under 72.5 receiving yards

Miami's second-year wideout Jaylen Waddle is one of the most explosive players in the league, so there is always a chance he goes for 100-plus yards every time he steps on the field. Under different circumstances, I would consider taking the over on this line in a crucial playoff duel against a Bills defense that Waddle has already torched twice this season.

Yes, Waddle cleared 100 receiving yards in both of the Dolphins' divisional bouts with Buffalo in the regular season. He recorded a catch of 45 or more yards in each. In both contests, however, Waddle had Tua Tagovailoa throwing him the ball. With Tagovailoa dealing with a concussion and Teddy Bridgewater listed as questionable, Miami has already announced rookie Skylar Thompson as the QB1 on Sunday.

Thompson started two games this season, both against the Jets, and was unable to display much chemistry with any of Miami's top offensive weapons. In those two outings, Waddle posted three receptions for 23 yards and five receptions for 44 yards, respectively.

This is not a bet against Waddle as much as it is a bet against Thompson, a seventh-round NFL Draft selection out of Kansas State. Buffalo's defense ranked middle-of-the-pack against opposing passing offenses this year but expect them to step up at home in an intense playoff atmosphere. Furthermore, we are getting a huge edge here on No House Advantage, with Waddle's receiving yardage prop sitting around 46.5 on popular sportsbooks.

Richie James (vs. MIN) over 3.5 receptions

Coming into the 2022-2023 campaign, 27-year-old wideout Richie James had a total of 38 receptions in his career. In his first season with the Giants, James recorded 57 receptions and became a focal point of New York's passing attack down the stretch.

James played on 70 percent or more of the team's offensive snaps on seven different occasions in the regular season. In all of them, he eclipsed 3.5 receptions and came down with at least five passes in five of them. There is little reason to believe that James won't be heavily involved again on Sunday as the Giants' receiving corps is arguably the team's biggest weakness. And their opponent's biggest weakness? Pass defense.

Minnesota surrendered over 265 passing yards per game in the regular season, the second-most in the league. In fact, when these two teams met in Week 16, Daniel Jones completed 30 passes for 334 yards, both of which were well above his season averages. And who was New York's leading receiver in that contest? You guessed it, Richie James.

James was out-targeted by Isaiah Hodgins, but both players finished with eight receptions and the former totaled 90 yards. This Wild Card matchup is projected to not only be close, but also high-scoring, so I definitely anticipate Jones attempting upwards of 30 passes. James should be one of the primary beneficiaries and can easily cruise past four receptions.

Gabe Davis (vs. MIA) under 4.5 receptions

I bet against Gabe Davis as one of my higher-confidence picks back in Week 16, and although he came close to surpassing his line of 52.5 receiving yards, he fell just short at 45. I'm going right back to Davis with full confidence, but this time taking the under on his reception prop rather than on his yardage.

As previously mentioned when discussing Jaylen Waddle, these two division rivals have already faced off twice this season. In both contests, Davis finished with fewer than five receptions, and these were both closely-fought battles. If the Dolphins struggle to score with Skylar Thompson under center on Sunday, the Bills won't need to take many shots down the field to Davis.

It wasn't only against Miami that Davis failed to haul in five catches. In 16 games this season, the UCF product recorded five or more receptions just twice. Of course, it's difficult to rack up a ton of catches when sharing the field with known target hog Stefon Diggs, but this is the reality of the situation. It doesn't help that Davis tied for the league lead in dropped passes throughout the regular season.

I wouldn't be totally shocked to see Davis score in this game, or even put up 50-plus receiving yards. I simply find it difficult to imagine a world where Miami makes this a competitive clash, and therefore doubt that Davis will see enough volume to translate into five receptions.

Lower Confidence Picks - Wild Card Weekend (Sunday Slate)

Kirk Cousins (vs. NYG) over 1.5 passing touchdowns

This is only a lower-confidence selection because you can never fully trust Kirk Cousins when the spotlight is on him. I still trust him just enough to throw two touchdowns in the Vikings' first home postseason game since 2017.

Cousins recorded two or more passing touchdowns in six of his nine home matchups this season, including in a Week 16 contest against the New York Giants. The veteran signal-caller led Minnesota to a narrow victory with 299 passing yards and three touchdowns. New York will be seeking revenge on Sunday, and the Vikings may be forced to pass frequently if their defense doesn't step up. Stepping up is not something Minnesota's defense has done much this year.

In the regular season, the Vikings allowed over 25 points per game, the third-most in the NFL. Luckily, the offense still willed the team to a 13-4 record as it was able to keep up with most of its foes. This was especially true in Minneapolis, where the Vikings averaged more than four additional points than they did on the road.

Along with the rest of the offense, Cousins was also more prolific at U.S. Bank Stadium. He threw for 18 touchdowns and four interceptions there, diminishing the 11 scores and 10 interceptions he recorded in eight away matchups. With a projected point total approaching 48 for this Wild Card bout, expect Cousins to let it fly in the red zone, just like he did against this same Giants team a few weeks ago.

Demarcus Robinson (vs. CIN) under 39.5 receiving yards

Veteran wide receiver Demarcus Robinson became a fantasy-relevant option in deeper leagues right around the halfway point of the regular season. With Rashod Bateman on Injured Reserve, Robinson started to build a rapport with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, this was short-lived as Tyler Huntley took over QB1 duties in Week 13.

Robinson did surpass 40 receiving yards in Huntley's first two appearances of the year but has been unable to reach that mark since. He was targeted nine times by Anthony Brown last week but finished with only two receptions for 24 yards against the Bengals. Huntley is currently listed as questionable for Sunday's contest, and if Brown gets the nod once again, I'll feel even more confident in this pick. I still like it under the assumption that Huntley does suit up.

Robinson recorded just one reception for eight yards in his first duel with Cincinnati this year. Jackson was at quarterback, but the aforementioned Bateman was sidelined, forcing Robinson on the field for 75 percent of the team's offensive snaps. Generally speaking, the Bengals have been solid against wide receivers all year, allowing the 11th-fewest yards to the position. They have, however, been beaten up by tight ends.

Rookie Isaiah Likely had the best performance of his young career against the Bengals in Week 18, and the Ravens will get three-time Pro Bowler Mark Andrews back on Sunday night. Andrews hung eight-for-89 and a touchdown on Cincinnati back in Week 5. Again, this was with Jackson, but I expect whoever is under center for Baltimore this weekend to lean on the ever-dependable Andrews.

The Ravens' passing attack has been underwhelming, to say the least, since losing Jackson to a knee injury, and Robinson has been far too inconsistent to project him for 40 yards against the Bengals. This prop line is coming in between 27.5 and 29.5 yards on other sportsbooks, so it's hard to ignore the advantage we're getting here.

T.J. Hockenson (vs. NYG) over 4.5 receptions

I just predicted a big Kirk Cousins showing against the Giants, and I'm not sure that he gets it done without a lot of help from Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

Hockenson has been excellent during his tenure with the Vikings, exceeding 4.5 receptions in seven of his nine full games since he was traded. I mentioned earlier that Cousins balled out against New York in Week 16, but the true star of that show was Hockenson, who turned a whopping 16 targets into 13 receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns.

Repeating this kind of success would be a nearly impossible task, but we're not asking for much with five catches. The Giants surrendered the eighth-most receptions to tight ends this season and allowed at least five receptions to the position in nine of 17 regular-season outings.

In what should be a competitive, high-scoring affair, we know Hockenson will be on the field running a ton of routes. The fourth-year pro amassed a team target share, approaching 23 percent over the last five weeks of the regular season, so it's clear that Cousins prefers throwing to him over anyone not named Justin Jefferson. I don't mind the idea of selecting the over on Hockenson's 49.5 receiving yards prop either, but I'm personally going to bet on his consistent volume of targets.

Wild Card Weekend Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry

Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Wild Card Weekend Sunday slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.

You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!

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