RADIO
Uh, Tom, what is going on? I doubt I am the only fool to have had Tom Kim in 80% of my player pool. Another reason why showdown is so awesome. Forget about week-long and focus on the guys who should have played well today, but didn't .. like Tom. The slate tomorrow is ripe with ownership leverage opportunities. Let us take a look!
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
Top Points Scorers
Highest Owned Golfers
Lowest Owned Golfers Who Scored 40+ Points
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Round 2 Power Rankings
These golfers can all be considered for cash games or double-ups. My power rankings for round 2 are calculated as follows: Pre-event Ranking (50%) + Round 2 Scoring Average (37.5%) + Birdie or Better % (12.5%)
The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based on their round 1 performance and general skill level (Pwr Rnk). As usual, we are going to give most of these golfers a skip, as their ownership is going to be bonkers. Rahm could come in a 50% owned, based on his play yesterday and pretournament popularity, with Collin's price and performance most likely getting him close to 40%.
***PLEASE NOTE: The following three sections have filtered out any player with a power ranking below zero as we want the best golfers to choose from. If you want the entire showdown cheat sheet, it's free to download here. I have added a projected ownership column that is a very rough approximation using that is simply there to provide a ballpark number.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Nobody.
$8,000: Nobody. Cam Davis is going to be challenging Spieth for the highest R2 ownership (gained on approach and lost putting – a recipe for insane ownership on an already popular golfer).
$7,000: Nobody.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back today.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, and Tom Hoge
$8,000: Adam Scott
$7,000: Emiliano Grillo, Kurt Kitayama, Mark Hubbard, Sam Ryder, and Adam Svensson.
$6,000: Troy Merrit and Michael Thompson
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000: I don't know what is wrong with Tom Kim's putter. We are going to block our nose and hope it fixes itself, as we are getting the golfer with the highest world ranking in the field, as the most expensive play on the board, after a HORRIFIC round (by his standards). That is a lot of upside for one of the best players in the field, at single-digit ownership.
Sungjae Im is also another expensive casualty of R1 and we will see significant reduction in his ownership too.
$9,000: Keegan Bradley
$8,000: Andrew Putnam, Keith Mitchell
$7,000: Matt Kuchar, Austin Cook, Nick Hardy, Robby Shelton, and Lucas Glover.
$6,000: Nick Taylor, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Palmer.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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