RADIO
Happy Monday and Happy New Year, RotoBallers! I hope you had a grand New Years' celebration and I'm wishing you nothing but health and happiness to you and all of your family and friends throughout the entirety of 2023. We get to start off 2023 with an absolutely epic Monday night matchup as the Bills (12-3) head into Cincinnati to take on the Bengals (11-4). While the Chiefs did their part yesterday with a win, both of these teams are still fighting for the one-seed in the AFC. Let's take a look at how this affects our DFS lineups.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Bengals NFL DFS showdown slate on January 2nd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $17,100 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,029 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 34.7% (third), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.3% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Josh Allen. I'm rolling with both quarterbacks in the 1.5x spot for this showdown because I believe this will be an absolute shootout. I'll opt for Allen over Burrow slightly due to the projected matchup (Buffalo has a projected 30.04% passing DVOA). My projections have Allen throwing for 293.16 yards and 1.85 touchdowns tonight while adding 40.1 rushing yards and a 38% chance of finding the end zone with his legs.
Joe Burrow - QB, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,260 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 14 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.8% (eighth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -6.5% (seventh), per Football Outsiders.
As I mentioned above, I'll take a look at Joe Burrow here as well. The matchup isn't as strong for Burrow and the Bengals, as I have Cincinnati projected for a 13.94% passing DVOA. On the passing side of things, Burrow actually projects a bit better than Allen, as my model has him throwing for 290.64 passing yards and 2.13 touchdowns tonight. I'll look to pair him up with the guy I'm about to mention next...
Other Captains/MVPs: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Ja'Marr Chase
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DFS Flex Plays
Ja'Marr Chase - WR, $10,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 122 targets, 79 receptions, 960 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Dane Jackson): 15% targets per route, 62% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
It'll be tough to stack a lineup with Burrow, Allen, and Chase, but I will have Chase in all lineups that I have Joe Burrow in. I like Tee Higgins in this spot as well, but I'll opt for Chase due to the matchup. He has a solid individual matchup against Dane Jackson, and the Bengals have a projected 27.33% DVOA when targeting Chase, the highest among all Cincinnati pass catchers. If you need a big night out of Chase in your fantasy championship, you're in luck, as my model projects Chase for 6.67 receptions on 10.23 targets for 92.57 yards and a 63% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Gabriel Davis - WR, $6,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 83 targets, 45 receptions, 797 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Eli Apple): 12% targets per route, 59% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Gabriel Davis. Davis has been relatively quiet over the last month and a half, but I'm expecting a big night from him here. The Bills have a whopping projected DVOA of 53.53% when targeting Davis, the highest among all Bills pass-catchers. My model projects Davis for 3.36 receptions on 6.35 targets and a 34% chance of finding the end zone tonight.
Other Flex Options: Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
DFS Value Plays
Dawson Knox - TE, $4,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 63 targets, 46 receptions, 504 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Bobby Okereke): 14% targets per route, 83% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at another two Bills pass-catchers in the value spots tonight, starting with Dawson Knox. Over Knox's last three games, he's logged 13 receptions on 20 targets for 177 yards and three touchdowns. The Bills have a projected 8.83% DVOA when targeting their tight ends tonight, and my model projects Knox for 3.58 receptions on 5.18 targets for 39.47 yards and a 31% chance of finding the end zone.
Isaiah McKenzie - WR, $2,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 62 targets, 40 receptions, 404 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Mike Hilton): 13% targets per route, 71% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Last but not least, I'll take a look at Isaiah McKenzie. McKenzie, like Davis, has been a bit quiet of late, which has resulted in his price going down quite a bit on both sites. While Davis's matchup is the best among all pass-catchers at 53.53%, McKenzie isn't far behind against Mike Hilton at 38.63%. My model projects McKenzie to snag 3.36 of 5.29 targets for 36.83 yards and a 20% chance of finding the end zone. I wouldn't recommend playing both Davis and McKenzie, and I would slightly lean towards McKenzie due to his dirt cheap price, but I'll have ample exposure to both.
Other Value Plays: Evan McPherson, Tyler Bass, Cole Beasley, Hayden Hurst
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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