NFL Pick 'Em: Player Prop Picks for No House Advantage - Early Slate (Week 17)

Happy New Year RotoBallers! If you're still alive in any fantasy football leagues, best of luck in your championship matchup, but even if you're not, there's another great way to ring in 2023 with some prizes by entering player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!

There are a total of eight Pick 'Em contests available this week, with some centered around just the early slate on Sunday and others solely focused on the afternoon slate and Sunday and Monday night showdowns. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $20,000!

Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Sunday's early slate Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.

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How to Play on No House Advantage

The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.

For example, if you believe Jaylen Waddle could struggle against the Patriots with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, you would select Waddle's under 73.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.

Once all of Sunday's early games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.

Higher Confidence Picks - Week 17 Early Slate

Chris Godwin (vs. CAR) over 5.5 receptions

In one of the most important matchups of the week, the 7-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off against the 6-9 Carolina Panthers in an effort to secure their second consecutive NFC South division title. A Tampa Bay loss would open the door for Carolina or the New Orleans Saints to possibly win the division.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives, and will be looking to capitalize through the air on a Panthers defense that has allowed the eighth-most passing yards and fourth-most wide receiver receptions this season. The primary beneficiary of this plus matchup should be none other than Chris Godwin, who has far and away been Brady's favorite target in 2022.

Godwin has seen 11 more targets than teammate Mike Evans this season despite playing in one less game. He has cleared six receptions in 11 of 12 contests in which he took the field for more than 50 percent of snaps. Better yet, he has hauled in six or more passes in every game this year in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs will play on Sunday.

We don't really need to overthink this one. Godwin's volume has been too consistent to ignore, and he already eclipsed this line against the Panthers on the road back in Week 7 when he turned 13 targets into seven receptions for 43 yards. His receptions line is listed at 6.5 on other sportsbooks, so we have a bit of an edge here.

Jared Goff (vs. CHI) over 1.5 passing touchdowns

There may not be a player in the league with a bigger discrepancy between home and away performances than Jared Goff. On the road this season, Goff has totaled 1,773 passing yards with just six touchdowns and four interceptions. At home, however, Goff has tallied a league-leading 20 passing touchdowns to go along with 2,235 yards and only three picks. Fortunately, Goff will be playing in Detroit on Sunday against the division-rival Chicago Bears.

It should be noted that Goff did come through with one of his better away outings of the season against the Bears back in Week 10. The 28-year-old completed 19 of 26 pass attempts for 236 yards and one touchdown in Chicago. That contest ended with a 31-30 final score, so it's no surprise that Week 17's rematch has been given the highest projected point total of the week at 52.5.

Goff has thrown for two or more passing touchdowns in seven of eight home appearances in 2022. In what should be a high-scoring affair, we can expect Goff to clear this mark once again, especially with so much on the line for the Lions this weekend.

If Detroit takes care of business against the Bears, and the Vikings manage to beat the Packers at Lambeau Field, Green Bay will be eliminated from playoff contention. Of course, the Lions will need to win again in Week 18 against the Packers and get some help from a few other teams to have a chance at making the playoffs, but they'll have no chance at all if they lose either of their last two games.

Look for Goff and the Lions to be aggressive in this one, as eliminating the Packers should be a nice consolation prize if Detroit misses out on a playoff berth themselves.

Drake London (vs. ARI) over 4.5 receptions

Rookie wide receiver Drake London bounced back from a mid-season lull in Week 13 and hasn't slowed down since. The Falcons even made a change at the quarterback position coming out of their Week 14 bye, but London has maintained a truly elite target share through Desmond Ridder's first two career starts.

Since being named the starter, Ridder has attempted 59 total passes. On 20, he was targeting London, who was able to come down with 14 of them. It's a small sample size, but this equates to an incredible 33.9 percent team target share for London with the rookie quarterback under center. For reference, Tyreek Hill currently leads the league in target share for the season as he has been targeted on 33.5 percent of Miami's pass attempts.

London has easily cleared five receptions in both of Ridder's starts as he has finished with seven catches in each. He should have a great opportunity to do so again in Week 17 at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have allowed the 11th-most receptions to the wide receiver position in 2022.

I also like London's receiving yardage prop at 58.5, as he has eclipsed 70 yards in each of his last three contests, but I'd prefer to bet on the volume that he is practically guaranteed to see.

Lower Confidence Picks - Week 17 Early Slate

Jahan Dotson (vs. CLE) over 44.5 receiving yards

Here we have another rookie wide receiver that has come on strong over the past three weeks. Washington's Jahan Dotson has posted three straight showings with more than 50 receiving yards.

Carson Wentz will be taking over QB1 duties for the Commanders this week, and although Wentz's struggles have been well-documented, I believe this to be a good thing for Dotson. The two displayed some chemistry in the early part of the season when Dotson earned 22 targets through his first four career games. Dotson proved to be a valuable target for Taylor Heinicke as well, but Terry McLaurin has long been considered Heinicke's go-to guy.

Through Heinicke's eight full games this season, McLaurin averaged 8.4 targets per contest, compared to 6.2 targets per game with Wentz under center for the first six weeks. In Week 16, Wentz targeted McLaurin just once out of his 16 pass attempts when playing in relief of Heinicke. I point this out to say that targets should be more evenly distributed between McLaurin, Dotson, and Curtis Samuel now with Wentz at the helm.

Dotson missed five contests in the middle of the season with a hamstring injury and was eased back into a workload between Weeks 10 and 12. Since Week 13, he's been a focal point of Washington's offense, playing on at least 79 percent of snaps each game while racking up 235 receiving yards and three touchdowns in three weeks.

On Sunday, the Commanders will face the Cleveland Browns, who have boasted a solid pass defense this season, but I still like Dotson's chances to tally 45 receiving yards as the Penn State product averages 14.28 yards per catch.

Latavius Murray (@ KC) under 59.5 rushing yards

32-year-old running back Latavius Murray has had a rather up-and-down 10th professional season. He has found the end zone five times in his 11 games but has surpassed 60 rushing yards on just three occasions.

In Week 17, Murray and the Broncos will take on the Kansas City Chiefs for the second time in four weeks. Kansas City has surrendered the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the league this year, which should come as no surprise as teams are typically forced into throwing the ball to keep up with the second-highest-scoring offense in the league. This is exactly what happened in Week 14 when Murray gained 32 yards on just eight carries and quarterback Russell Wilson had what was arguably his best showing of 2022.

Something else that could potentially work against Murray this week is the addition of Chase Edmonds to Denver's offense. In Edmonds' return from Injured Reserve last week, he handled six carries and two targets while playing on 42 percent of the team's snaps. Murray was just slightly more involved with eight rush attempts and three targets on 46 percent of snaps.

It would not be shocking at all to see Edmonds out-snap Murray this week, especially when considering the former's role as a pass-catcher during his previous stint in Arizona.

Other sportsbooks have Murray's rushing yardage prop sitting at 41.5 yards, which seems much more obtainable. 59.5 is just a little high for my liking as I find it unlikely that Murray is given more than 12 carries on Sunday.

Zack Moss (@ NYG) over 48.5 rushing yards

When Jonathan Taylor went down in Week 15, many probably expected that Deon Jackson would step in as the lead running back in Indianapolis. Jackson was relatively effective when filling in for Taylor earlier in the season, but the Colts have seemingly given the keys to former Buffalo Bills running back Zack Moss.

Moss has amassed 26 carries and has averaged 67 rushing yards per game over the past two weeks. Although Jackson handled 13 carries for 55 yards of his own in Week 15, the second-year pro was completely uninvolved on the ground last Monday night.

This week, Moss will be rewarded with a matchup against the New York Giants, who are tied for the fourth-most rushing yards allowed in the NFL this season at 145.9 per contest. With Nick Foles at the helm once again, we can't necessarily trust Indianapolis to sustain drives, but we should anticipate Moss seeing enough volume to eclipse 49 yards.

He has crushed this line in both games with Taylor injured, and sportsbooks list his rushing yardage prop around 60.5 yards, giving us a 12-yard window to capitalize on at No House Advantage.

Week 17 Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry

Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Week 17 early slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.

You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!

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