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The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on December 31st, 2022. Kyle Ringstad provides NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's New Year's Eve, and I can't think of a better day to make some money with daily fantasy basketball contests. The matchups are reasonably evenly spread in terms of their fantasy appeal tonight. Still, there is a clear tier break in the implied totals after the Nets-Hornets, Pelicans-Grizzlies, Mavericks-Spurs, and Pistons-Timberwolves matchups. The Nets, Mavericks, and Timberwolves rate out as the top teams to target in my model, but my model doesn't take injuries/scratches or DFS salary into consideration, so we can't just blindly get to those squads. Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, Jalen Brunson, Rudy Gobert, Devin Vassell, Evan Mobley, and Ben Simmons are the key players entering today with questionable designations, so watch out for news on that group. Let's get to it.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 12/31/22. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Luka Doncic, vs. SAS (FD: $12,400, DK: $12,100)
You can't fade Doncic right now, so as long as we get enough value to feel comfortable with our lineups including his gigantic salary, we're playing the MVP candidate in a golden matchup against the Spurs. Check out Doncic over his last four games: 81, 110.75, 60.25, and 82 DK points. That's not something we want to get away from for any reason. The Spurs allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing teams and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. According to my model, the Mavericks are the second-best team to target on the slate, so there's no reason to try to get cute by fading the top player on the slate in this spot.
Alec Burks, vs. MIN (FD: $5,800, DK: $4,500)
Someone had to fill the void left over by Killian Hayes being out of the lineup due to his extracurricular activities on Wednesday. Jaden Ivey took on an expanded role himself, and the Pistons went with the double-center starting lineup last night, but Burks saw the most minutes (22) off the bench on his way to a 27.25 DK point performance against the Bulls. He's amidst a scorching hot streak, shooting 17-for-20 (85%) from the field and 10-for-11 from three-point range over his last two games. Burks holds a respectable 25.1% usage rate and scores 1.09 FPTS/min with Hayes off the floor this season, and that'll play up nicely against a vulnerable Timberwolves defense this evening. The Wolves are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. If Burks sees his typical 25-ish minutes, he will crush value tonight.
Anthony Edwards, vs. DET (FD: $9,200, DK: $9,500)
This feels like a "sticker-shock" price tag for the third-year star out of Georgia. However, he has exceeded what he'd need for 5x value at his current salary on DraftKings in six of his last eight games, highlighted by two games with at least 65.25 DK points just last week. He's hogging all the usage (28.7%) and producing at an efficient rate (1.18 FPTS/min) with Towns and McLaughlin off the floor this season, which is precisely what we like to see from a player like Ant. He's taking at least 20 shots per game and coming up with steals and blocks at a high rate, which is all going to look good against a brutal Pistons' defense tonight. The Pistons allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams overall. They also rate out as the top team to target SGs against via my K-Grade model, so all signs point to another monster output from Ant tonight.
Also consider: Seth Curry, Tre Mann, Mike Conley, Jaden Ivey, Royce O'Neale, Jaylen Nowell, Kyrie Irving, Josh Giddey
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Naz Reid, vs. DET (FD: $5,900, DK: $4,700)
This price tag is disrespectful to the unheralded big man on the Wolves. He stepped into the starting lineup with Gobert out last night and promptly put up 31.25 DK points over 30 minutes against the Bucks. Even before that, Reid put up 26.5, 40.25, and 26.25 DK points, even with Gobert in the lineup. He has outproduced the prized offseason acquisition more often than not lately, at roughly half the salary. Gobert is questionable again tonight, and if he sits again, Reid becomes a must-play value piece. If the Frenchman is active, Reid profiles as one of the better tournament options on the slate with the form he has shown lately and the juicy matchup he has on tap against the Pistons. Detroit ranks 29th in defensive efficiency while allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards.
T.J. Warren, vs. CHA (FD: $5,100, DK: $4,400)
Warren is a shell of what he used to be back in his glory days on the Pacers, but he's still good enough to help us fit Doncic and Ant into our lineups at his bargain-bin salary tonight. Warren put up a significant dud with 9.5 DK points over 26 minutes on Wednesday, but he crushed value with 40.5, 26.5, and 26.75 DK points over his previous three contests. It appears likely that he'll keep seeing minutes in the mid-20's as a key rotational piece for the Nets, and that's going to work for us as he holds a solid 20.1% usage rate and produces 0.99 FPTS/min with Joe Harris off the floor this season. The Nets are the top team to target on the entire slate as they hold the highest implied total going up against a Hornets team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams this season.
Also consider: Saddiq Bey, Caris LeVert, Eric Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovic, Dillon Brooks
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Bam Adebayo, vs. UTA (FD: $8,500, DK: $8,900)
I'm trusting the K-Grade model with this one. The Heat don't rate out well as the game has a low implied total and Miami ranks 28th in pace, but their center matchup is the second-best on the slate, behind only the Nets (with an overpriced Simmons and Claxton). The Jazz rank 26th in defensive rating and allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, so we can't dream up a better spot for Bam to put up a ceiling game. His salary is the highest it has been all season, but that should keep his rostership level at a reasonable spot, and it's not like he has been playing poorly. He needs 44.5 DK points for 5x value tonight, and he has been right at or over that number in four of his last five games.
Also consider: Joel Embiid, Nikola Vucevic, Darius Bazley, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kevin Love, Jakob Poeltl, Jalen Duren
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