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It's New Year's Eve and tomorrow brings us the first day of 2023 and a full slate of NFL games as Week 17 is nearly here. We had a big week with props last week (11-3, my best mark of the season) and I am trying to keep it rolling this week.
This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week 17 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week's Props: 11-3
- Season-to-Date Props: 65-60
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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 17
Josh Allen OVER 251.5 passing yards (-120 DK)
This number really caught me by surprise. Then I had to go look and realized that Allen has been under this number in three of his last four games. Last week was a bit of an aberration as it was bad weather and he only attempted 26 passes, but his attempts overall have been down in the second half, likely because of his elbow injury.
But this game on Monday night should be a good one and I think Cincy has the offense to push Buffalo into a shootout, even if they don’t want to get into one. Their run defense is pretty decent, while their pass defense is middling which could set up for a big day for Allen chucking the pigskin. Vegas expects nearly 50 points and it’s basically a pick ‘em. I am already in on the Bills to win this game, so why not back Allen to hit this very modest number, too?
Brian Robinson OVER 80.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Antonio Gibson is OUT and Robinson should be featured even more as a result. The Commanders love to pound the ball with him and even fed him 22 carries last week in the worst matchup in the NFL (San Fran).
The Browns present a favorable matchup with the 30th-ranked DVOA rushing defense and give up 134 yards rushing per game on the ground. Robinson had hit his yardage prop in four of his last five games before last week. I like him to have a big day and top this total. He’s going in a lot of DFS lineups, too.
Tyler Allgeier OVER 75.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
If you haven’t had a chance to watch this rookie run, try to find a way to tune into this otherwise meaningless game between Atlanta and Arizona tomorrow. He should be the lead back again this week with Cordarrelle Patterson being the chance-of-pace back and the Atlanta running game has a top-3 matchup on the slate. Like Robinson, Allgeier will be a popular, cheap DFS play but I want exposure to his prop here, too.
Dalvin Cook OVER 75.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Cook has had his healthiest season in some time, but his production on the ground has been modest with only 73 yards rushing per contest. Minnesota loves to throw the football, but Cook was fed 20 carries and managed 90 yards against the Packers in the opener way back in September.
Since then, the Green Bay rush defense has only got worse. They rank 27th in rushing yards allowed with 144 per game, so it’s easy to see a clear path to 76+ for Cook here, assuming the Vikings take what the Packers are giving them and run the football.
George Kittle OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
I know Kittle’s production has been all over the map and it’s hard to project tight ends on a weekly basis. But the last two weeks he’s been incredible, grabbing 10 passes for 213 yards and 4 TD. It’s clear than Purdy loves his big target and that the absence of Deebo Samuel has worked in Kittle’s favor.
The Raiders are the worst pass defense in the league and allow the 11th-most points to tight ends. This number is a full ten yards lower than Kittle’s season average of 54 yards per game, too, it just doesn’t add up.
Evan Engram OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
Engram has been a force the last three weeks of the season. This number is set using his season average of 48 yards receiving per game, but in his last three games, he’s gone for 11-162, 8-62, and 7-113. He also had 6-69 against Houston in their first matchup. I’m banking on him staying heavily involved in the Jags’ passing game this week once again.
Curtis Samuel OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
I tweeted this little factoid about Samuel earlier this week.
Taylor Heinicke - 3.1 rec, 4.3 targets, 40.6 yards/game\n\nCurtis Samuel w/Carson Wentz - 5.6 rec, 7.9 targets, 48.4 yards/game\n\nWentz hit Samuel three times in the fourth quarter after relieving Heinicke, including a 20-yard touchdown.","username":"ThunderDanDFS","name":"\"Thunder Dan\" Palyo","date":"Thu Dec 29 16:21:00 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":4,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}">
Curtis Samuel w/Taylor Heinicke - 3.1 rec, 4.3 targets, 40.6 yards/game
Curtis Samuel w/Carson Wentz - 5.6 rec, 7.9 targets, 48.4 yards/game
Wentz hit Samuel three times in the fourth quarter after relieving Heinicke, including a 20-yard touchdown.
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) December 29, 2022
Samuel should be very much involved again this week, especially with Antonio Gibson out as he can absorb a lot of the short routes in the flat that are usually run by Gibson. I am all over Samuel in DFS and going back to his props as he hit both his receptions and yardage for us last week, too.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Justin Jefferson (-110)
George Kittle (-135)
2-leg parlay = (+232 DK)
Receptions
Chris Godwin over 6.5 (-125)
Godwin has 7+ in four of his last five games and double-digit targets in three of those games. The Carolina defense is a pass funnel so we should see Brady and the Bucs have to throw it a bunch and Godwin could get peppered with targets once more. He also had 7 catches on 13 targets the first time these teams met.
Jahan Dotson over 3.5 (+110)
Dotson has four or more catches now in three straight games as he’s really come on late in the year to help bolster this Commanders’ passing attack. Wentz looked his way early in the season when he was under center, too, before Heinicke took over.
I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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