RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After that interesting and rather low-scoring affair between the Dolphins and Chargers last week, we have what I believe will be another low-scoring affair as the middling Giants (7-5-1) head into DC to take on the Commanders (7-5-1). These two teams competed to a tie just two weeks ago, before the Commanders went on bye and the Giants got slaughtered by Philadelphia last Sunday. Let's see how we should go about making our showdown lineups tonight.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. Commanders NFL DFS showdown slate on December 18th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Saquon Barkley - RB, $15,600 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 251 rushing attempts, 1,083 rushing yards, 54 targets, 42 receptions, 261 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -2.1% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -19.2% (fourth), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off with Saquon Barkley as we dip into tonight's showdown slate. While the matchup doesn't necessarily favor Saquon here, I think he's been dealing with some injury stuff lately, and he's poised to have himself a nice bounce-back game this week. He toted the rock 18 times for 63 yards and a touchdown as well as catching all five of his targets for 18 yards against this Giants team two weeks ago, and with Washington getting pressure on Daniel Jones, I think he'll rack up the receptions and have a nose for the end zone as the Giants team as a whole looks to save their playoff hopes tonight.
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, $12,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 147 rushing attempts, 563 rushing yards, nine targets, eight receptions, 42 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -12.4% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 10.7% (31st), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at another running back, Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson is taking over this backfield as the clear "number-one guy," after getting 21 carries two weeks ago against the Giants, while also grabbing both of his targets for 15 yards. My model has him establishing himself as the primary ballcarrier for this Washington team tonight as well, projecting him for 79.24 yards on 17.8 carries and a 68% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Terry McLaurin, Daniel Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, Taylor Heinicke
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DFS Flex Plays
Terry McLaurin - WR, $9,800 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 98 targets, 62 receptions, 945 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Fabian Moreau): 17% target rate, 56% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'm also favoring a pair of Washington wide receivers in the flex spot tonight. I'll start with Terry McLaurin, who has one of the strongest matchup ratings among all wide receivers this week. McLaurin projects for 5.17 receptions on 8.27 targets tonight for 68.79 receiving yards and a 30% chance of finding the end zone.
Curtis Samuel - WR, $6,600 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 79 targets, 54 receptions, 556 yards, and four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Darnay Holmes): 18% target rate, 60% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Curtis Samuel in this spot as well. I seemingly write about Samuel every time the Commanders play in a showdown slate, and for good reason. He's always cheap, particularly on DraftKings because he gets a ton of targets. My model projects him to catch 3.09 of his 5.18 targets for 31.98 yards tonight, as well as adding 9.12 yards on the ground with a 20% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke
DFS Value Plays
Isaiah Hodgins - WR, $5,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 27 targets, 21 receptions, 224 yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Christian Holmes): 14% target rate, 100% catch rate, 0.47 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at a value receiver. Isaiah Hodgins has quietly played very well the last few weeks. He's seen six targets in each of his last two games, as well as catching a touchdown in each game. He's logged just 44 and 38 yards in those two games, respectively, but should produce a similar output tonight as my model has him catching 3.15 of 5.03 targets for 38.14 receiving yards and a 23% chance of finding the end zone. It's also worth noting he has the best projected DVOA of all Giants pass catchers tonight (29.36%).
Logan Thomas - TE, $5,000 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 40 targets, 24 receptions, 210 yards, and one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Julian Love): 10% target rate, 76% catch rate, 0.18 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Last but not least, I'll take a look at Logan Thomas. Thomas hasn't had a great 2022 campaign, but with it being prime time, I would be remiss to not mention at least one of the tight ends here. He caught just three of four targets against the Giants two weeks ago, and my model projects him to catch 3.08 of 4.35 targets tonight for 33.23 yards and a 26% chance of finding the end zone. The Commanders have a projected 19.96% DVOA when targeting tight ends tonight, and the Eagles were able to get Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra going against this Giants team last week, so I'll take a stab at Thomas tonight.
Other Value Plays: Graham Gano, Washington Commanders D/ST, Joey Slye
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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