College Football Predictions: ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2022

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania for the 2022 bowl season. Compete with the reader's group to win premium access to our college football content for 2023!

ESPN's College Pick Em may have ended, but now we get Pick Em on steroids in the form of Capital One Bowl Mania. All you have to do is pick the winner of all 43 bowl games and assign a point value based on the confidence in each one of them from 1 to 43. The entry with the most points wins bragging rights with other RotoBaller readers....and FREE premium access to our college football content for the 2023 season. That includes access to the DFS optimizers and Discord chat to help with lineup decisions. Do I have your attention now? Join in on the fun here!

Both jphowell09 and ryan_peoples2 had 46 points in the final week. That kept jphowell09 in first place! He won the group by three points over ryan_peoples2. Fred Smoot Boat Rentals takes third with 496 points. ertlt and lbockenek rounded out the top five. Kev Shep moved into a tie for sixth with HumbleBee with a strong last week. There was an 18-point gap between seventh and me in eighth place. San Diego's Finest and Bamarick rounded out the top-10.

Capital One Bowl Mania starts on December 16 and each game locks at kickoff. You can still move games around with others that haven't locked yet, which comes in handy since we have an increasing number of players that opt out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Some big names have opted out already and some are in the transfer portal, so make sure you keep up to date on that! If you want to participate in the spread version of the game as well, that group is here, though there are no prizes besides the one ESPN offers.

College Football Pick Em Overview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If I move a game up or down, I will update on Twitter if I can and on here so long as it doesn't muddle up the article too much. I haven't moved a lot of things around in recent years though, so that may be a viable option. Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (43). You know, for dramatic effect.

ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2022

(1) Liberty over Toledo

Liberty shouldn't have any opt-outs and they should have Dae Dae Hunter back, not to mention that Charlie Brewer should be fully acclimated to the offense. Losing Hugh Freeze has me keeping this low on the list. That Liberty team that knocked off the Hogs in Fayetteville is still in there somewhere despite their clumsy end to the season. That said, Dequan Finn is talented enough to take over the game. Even if I move this game, I'm staying low.

(2) Pittsburgh over UCLA

Watch out for sitting starts in this one. DTR has nothing left to prove. The same can be said for Zach Charbonnet and Israel Abanikanda. Kedon Slovis is gone, but that's addition by subtraction. Who can forget what Nick Patti did in the bowl game for Pitt last year? When it comes down to it, Pitt has the better players that will play in this game. Rodney Hammond, Vincent Davis, and Notre Dame transfer C'Bo Flemister can handle this backfield if Abanikanda opts out and UCLA has struggled against the run this year.

(3) Tulane over USC

Tulane is actually a similar team to Utah, the team that beat USC twice this season. They thrive on an opportunistic defense, and they run the ball well. Tulane isn't a tight end-centric offense like Utah is. They actually have receivers in Watts and Wyatt that can get to that USC defense like a few teams had success with this year. On top of that, Tyjae Spears is likely better than any back that USC now has healthy. The implosion against Utah and choking out of the playoffs has me thinking USC won't be able to get out of their own heads.

(4) Maryland over North Carolina State

The Pack has had quarterback issues since Devin Leary went down. It seems as though freshman Ben Finley has seized the job from MJ Morris. I still think that Taulia Tagovailoa is committed to Maryland and feels like this team would have been much different had injuries at WR and on the offensive line hadn't derailed their season. I feel that Taulia plays and that's enough to shift me to Maryland.

(5) Missouri over Wake Forest

Sam Hartman has announced that this will be his last game at Wake. I can't help but feel like he's making a mistake by even playing in it. Wake was a turnover machine for the last month of the season and Hartman is no small reason why. I still like the Missouri defense to give him issues. Brady Cook really improved over the last few games of the season. He hasn't thrown an interception since October 22 and has topped 100 rushing yards twice since then. How you finish a season matters, so I'm taking Missouri.

(6) Louisville over Cincinnati

I feel like no news is good news on the Malik Cunningham front. The game is on Saturday. If he were going to opt out, he would by now, right? Honestly, this is a game that Cunningham needs to play. Injuries destroyed his season and thoughts that he might be the second coming of Lamar Jackson. If Cunningham can put up a strong game against this Cincinnati defense, it would do wonders for his draft stock. I feel like Cunningham is going to return next year anyway, but you never know. If Cunningham plays, I'm taking Louisville.

(7) San Jose State over Eastern Michigan

My horrid record picking the Eagles against the spread this season (1-10, losing 33 points) has me doubting myself as far as anything concerning the Eagles. I know that the Spartans are the better team. That said, the Eastern Michigan receivers are good enough to stretch this secondary out a bit. I expect a close game here, meaning I'm leaving this on the lower end of the point spectrum.

(8) UTSA over Troy

This is kind of the last ride for this incarnation of UTSA. Frank Harris and Zakhari Franklin are two of the best in the Roadrunners' brief history, and I think they go out with a bang. Just watch Franklin in the CUSA title game. Troy's defense is really good, but I'm not sure there's a combo like Harris and Franklin in the Fun Belt. This is going to be a close game, but I'm not going against the Roadrunners.

(9) Mississippi State over Illinois

I had this one somewhere in the middle with the Illini winning. I've changed it since the passing of Mike Leach. The team was quick to announce that they were going to play this game and finish the season for Leach. This will be his lasting legacy in StarkVegas. I don't see the team letting him down. They will find some way to finish this with a win.

(10) Baylor over Air Force

Talk about a contrast in styles! Baylor's defense has been pretty good this year and Haaziq Daniels seems to have regressed for the Falcons. The speed of Baylor is going to be a problem for the Falcons here. If you're looking for an interesting prop bet, I wouldn't be shocked if Baylor ran for more yards than Air Force. Don't go crazy on it, but it might be a nice way to turn a buck into 20.

(11) Mississippi over Texas Tech

I had this one higher, but it worries me. Tech closed the season strong and Ole Miss ended by blowing the Egg Bowl. Quinshon Judkins is the only thing keeping me from taking Tech. So, my version of hedging is by lowering the points on this just in case Tech finds a way to pull it out.

(12) Duke over Central Florida

I'm not a big believer in UCF, but the athletes on this team are going to be a problem for Duke. I could also see Duke winning this game. The offense made huge strides this year with Riley Leonard and the defense is better than you think. I may end up flipping this one, but I'm not moving it any higher. It might go lower. I'm still on the fence about it. UCF is capable of winning this, but I've seen the defense blow it against teams less talented than Duke.

(13) Georgia Southern over Buffalo

Kyle Vantrease was Buffalo's quarterback last year. Now he gets to face his former team in a bowl game. Nice, huh? The Bulls lost a lot on offense when Vantrease flew south to finish his career. This is a solid Buffalo team, but not solid enough to stop the high-flying Eagles.

(14) South Carolina over Notre Dame

The Cocks took out two playoff hopefuls in Tennessee and Clemson to close the season. Rumors are swirling that Spencer Rattler is leaving, but nothing is official yet. If this is his South Carolina swan song, I expect him to ride out with the best three-game stretch from any Gamecocks quarterback ever. The Cocks have all the momentum right now.

(15) SMU over BYU

There is a chance that Rashee Rice opts out, but again, this game is on Saturday so I feel like we would have heard by now. I don't understand why everyone is so high on BYU. Yes, Jaren Hall and Puka Nacua are good. However, that defense has been gashed all year long. Now they run into an offense that only runs fast or faster. That's a huge issue for the Cougars.

(16) Memphis over Utah State

I would have this higher, but I don't trust Memphis. I never really have. The Aggies have been a little scattered all season thanks to injuries, specifically at quarterback. It never really allowed them to get any kind of rhythm going. The same can be said for Memphis. It wasn't even really injuries. It was just...inconsistency. I trust Memphis just a little more, but I may end up chickening out and reducing the points on this.

(17) San Diego State over Middle Tennessee State

I trust the Aztec defense and Jalen Mayden at quarterback. MTSU has been good at times, but they haven't been consistent enough for me to feel good about taking them in a game like this. SDSU changed when Mayden became the quarterback. I still have some questions about their run game, but the defense and passing game should be enough for the Aztecs here.

(18) Marshall over Connecticut

Khalen Laborn should finally be back at full strength after being hobbled over the last few games for the Herd. UConn is a dangerous team because they are well-coached, but they got a bad draw here. Marshall is equally put together and has a much better offense.

(19) Bowling Green over New Mexico State

Jerry Kill resurfaced down in Las Cruces and got the Aggies into a bowl game in season 1. Well...kind of. The game for the Aggies against San Jose State was canceled because of a death in their football family, so the Aggies only played 11 games. The NCAA granted them a waiver to play despite their 5-6 record. I might end up moving this down because the Aggies have looked good at times this year. Still, I like the Falcons. What will Odieu Hiliare do to finish out his career?

(20) Kentucky over Iowa

This is the rematch that nobody wanted...and one that will be played basically without quarterbacks. Will Levis opted out for Kentucky and both Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla are transferring out. Maybe they saw the fate of Charlie Jones after he got out of Iowa City. At any rate, Iowa will be going with a quarterback that hasn't thrown a pass and Kentucky will be without Levis and leading rusher Chris Rodriguez. Yuck. This is going to be like a 9-0 game. Turnovers will be king, so give me a team that actually has a backup that has thrown a pass.

(21) Michigan over TCU

Just how good is Michigan? That's the question that many people ask since the Wolverines' non-conference schedule rivaled Auburn's from 2004 and the Big Ten(14) outside of Ohio State was weaker than usual. We may not know how good Michigan is, but we know what they are. They wear you down and punish you in the fourth quarter. TCU's speed is going to provide an interesting challenge for the Michigan defense and Max Duggan is an absolute warrior that was likely the best player on the stage in New York City last weekend. Still, most of that speed isn't on defense. I think Michigan's run game does what they did all season.

(22) South Alabama over Western Kentucky

I might move this one up with Austin Reed transferring. So far, it looks like Reed is going to play in the bowl game before deciding on his next destination, but is the team really going to be with him? I liked South Alabama anyway considering their only two losses were to Troy and UCLA by a combined five points. I'm taking the Jags no matter where I end up with confidence points on this one.

(23) Utah over Penn State

I actually had this one at the top, but Tavion Thomas and Dalton Kincaid have both opted out. Utah still has their whole defense intact and that's really all I need to know. Penn State is better at running the ball, but stopping the run is Utah's strength. I don't trust Sean Clifford to win this through the air. I'm still taking Utah unless the exodus to the draft continues.

(24) Ohio over Wyoming

That Wyoming offense outside of Titus Swen and D.Q. James is a total disaster. People still keep spewing stats about how bad Ohio's defense was this year. It's misleading. The Bobcats didn't allow more than 24 points or 400 total yards over the last two months of the season. Yes, the defense was a disaster against Penn State, Iowa State, and FAU before allowing a staggering 320 receiving yards to Fotis Kokosioulis of Fordham. This is a different defense now and they get to take on one of the worst offenses in FBS.

(25) Kansas State over Alabama

It's not often that coaches provide bulletin board material, but that's exactly what Nick Saban did when pandering (see: whining) to the Playoff Committee to let Alabama in over TCU and/or Ohio State. He more than inferred that TCU losing to the Wildcats in the Big 12(10) Championship Game was a "bad loss." I have a feeling that Will Howard and company are going to show him what Saban can only call a "bad loss."

(26) Arkansas over Kansas

I really don't trust the Kansas defense, particularly the run defense. K.J. Jefferson is a runner and Raheim Sanders is a very good back. Jalon Daniels will likely make this game closer than it should be, but I don't see Kansas winning this outright. Against the spread may be a different story.

(27) Minnesota over Syracuse

What more perfect place for two teams that prefer arctic temperatures than having a bowl game in Yankee Stadium? The difference is that Minnesota actually plays outside instead of just walking to and from classes in the tundra. Mohamed Ibrahim is still playing this game. As long as that doesn't change, I'm on the Gophers and may end up moving this up.

(28) LSU over Purdue

I'm honestly not sure how much I trust LSU. However much it is, I trust the Purdue defense even less. I do like Aidan O'Connell and Devin Mockobee is going to be fun to watch for the next couple of seasons. What will it amount to now? LSU ran a gauntlet before stumbling against A&M to end the season. They played three top-10 (at the time) teams in four weeks (with Florida as the only unranked) back in October-early November. They won two of those. With Jayden Daniels having time to fully recover, I like the Tigers here. Purdue won't be able to stop him.

(29) Houston over Louisiana

I really hate putting this much trust in Houston, especially when they have so many players that might opt out. Nathaniel Dell and Clayton Tune both have dreams of playing in the pros. Tune needs the extra game to pad his highlight reel, which should happen against the Cajuns. Dell doesn't really have anything to gain by playing in this game, but he says he is. That's really bad news for the Cajuns.

(30) Fresno State over Washington State

The Wazzu defense has been better than advertised all year, but I have some serious questions about that offense. Jake Haener is playing in this game (which most of us never doubted). Fresno could have done big things this year if Haener hadn't missed a month. Now they have to settle for taking down Washington State. Haener is looking to provide more highlight-reel plays for his draft profile and he should have some opportunities in this one.

(31) Boise State over North Texas

Man, you all have more confidence in this than I do! 96% on Boise? I don't trust the Broncos that much. I may end up moving this down. Taylen Green has grown by leaps and bounds this year, but can the Boise defense stand up to Austin Aune? I'm taking the Broncos because they run the ball well and can control the clock. However, I don't view this as a sure thing and might move it down.

(32) East Carolina over Coastal Carolina

Grayson McCall is playing for the Chanticleers, but Jamey Chadwell left to accept the coaching position at Liberty. Seems like a lateral move, yeah? Tim Beck will be taking over at CCU, but not until after this one. ECU has a top-25 offense and the defense did a pretty good job in its own right. I might end up moving this one up. This feels like the place where Holton Ahlers announces to the college football world how good he is.

(33) Washington over Texas

Michael Penix took the college football world by storm this year. Under the tutelage of Kalen DeBoer, Penix shed the "scrambler" tag and proved that he is so much more than that. Penix is staying for another year and could wind up as the top-rated passer coming out next year if he continues to improve as he did this year. Texas didn't play well on the road and I really wouldn't be a bit surprised if Bijan Robinson elects to sit this one out. I might even move this up if he does.

(34) Oregon State over Florida

The Pac hasn't fared well against the SEC in recent years, but don't let that sway you. Florida is without Anthony Richardson (which may actually do them a favor), and therefore without an offensive identity. The Civil War may have ended differently if Bo Nix were completely healthy, but that's not the way it went. The Beavers are trending upward, which is more than we can say for Florida.

(35) Georgia over Ohio State

My one question here is whether Georgia actually has the offensive firepower to torch the Buckeyes for the big plays as Michigan did. They've had over a month to figure out what's wrong with their defense. Georgia is not explosive, but they are methodical much in the same way that Michigan is. The only difference is that Georgia's defense might once again be the best in the country. I don't think that Ohio State backed their way in – they earned this with a strong regular season and benefitted from other teams stumbling. However, that will be the battle cry if this gets out of hand...and it might.

(36) National Championship Game

I don't see a team in the final four that has what it takes to beat Georgia. If the Bulldogs lose, it will be because they beat themselves. I might move this around like I normally do during bowl season. Me leaving it as a higher point value and picking the right championship has allowed me to win the group a couple of times. It didn't work last year because I picked Alabama, but I enjoy still having a high point value in my back pocket to go for a win. I might move this if Michigan or TCU dominates and Georgia doesn't, but as of now, I like where it sits.

(37) Wisconsin over Oklahoma State

The Cowboys went belly-up even before Spencer Sanders went down. Yes, he went down in the K-State game, but the Pokes were down big before then and collapsed afterward. There has been a steady stream of departures from Stillwater after Sanders. Wisconsin is going with a new coach, but Jim Leonhard should go out with his first bowl win.

(38) UAB over Miami-Ohio

The Redhawks have a pretty good defense, but pretty good isn't going to stop DeWayne McBride and Jermaine Brown. I don't really trust the Miami offense to keep up in this one. Not when the leading passer is also the leading rusher.

(39) Southern Mississippi over Rice

Southern Miss is a different team with Trey Lowe at quarterback. I understand that they are rewarding academics here, but Rice has no business in a bowl game. They lost four of their last five games, including a brutal loss by 33 points to a two-win (prior to the game) Charlotte team. Barf! The Eagles are going to roll big here!

(40) Florida State over Oklahoma

This is a matchup that we Oklahoma fans didn't want while our team is down. This is the first meeting since the 2000 National Championship game and the Noles are primed for revenge. The Oklahoma defense isn't good and they have lost several players to the draft or the portal already. Jordan Travis isn't going anywhere. I'm a fan and this hurts, but I'm not dumb. We have almost no chance of winning this game.

(41) Oregon over North Carolina

Before Bo Nix hurt his ankle, he was putting together a great season for the Ducks. He should be fully healed, which is bad news for the Carolina defense (they allegedly have one). Oregon's defense is good enough to get to Drake Maye as teams did down the stretch. No matter how good that offense is, I don't trust the Carolina defense at all.

(42) Clemson over Tennessee

It was an unfortunate end to what could have been a magical season for the Vols. The defense got progressively worse and then they lost all hope when Hendon Hooker went down. Joe Milton is a solid quarterback, but now the Vols got a really bad draw. The drama is gone from Clemson with D.J. Uiagalelei entering the portal. Now there are no feelings to worry about when Dabo starts Cade Klubnik. Welcome to his coming out party!

(43) Jackson State over North Carolina Central 

Coach Prime is finishing out the season of destiny in the bowl game with Colorado's blessing. So is Shedeur Sanders, the star quarterback. I think the Tigers get that perfect 13-0 season and that Deion Sanders leaves this place with a continuation of what he started just like he said he would.

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