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Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 13 lineups in 2022. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.
Week 12 was the ultimate boom-or-bust week. This is partly because Josh Jacobs had a historical day, totaling over 300 yards and two scores. However, we also had booms such as Zay Jones, JaMycal Hasty, and Jelani Woods. And yes, CeeDee Lamb also had a great week, a player that I foolishly claimed to be a bust in Week 12.
On a similar line, we had busts such as Parris Campbell (another missed call on my part), but also the likes of Dalvin Cook and George Kittle. We’re navigating a minefield every week, so let’s learn from our mistakes and move on.
This week, we have some absolutely electric matchups. We also have a few high-powered teams testing their offensive prowess against elite defenses. As we slide into the fantasy playoffs, picking the right players becomes more important than ever. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Week 13 Boom and Bust players for fantasy football. If articles aren't your jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.
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Laying the Boom
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Usually, Jimmy G is the opposite of a high-upside QB. However, I love this matchup for him. Although I believe the 49ers' defense will finally find a way to at least slow down this high-flying Dolphins team, there is no way the Dolphins don’t put up points. As a result, Garoppolo might need to air it out to take some pressure off the defense.
Thankfully, the Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position and the fifth-fewest interceptions per game. This season, Garoppolo has impressively posted four QB9 weeks and a QB5 performance two weeks ago. With all these elite weapons in a great matchup, I think he’ll find his way into the top eight this week.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
It seems like we are due for a classic Aaron Jones explosion game. Last week, I called him for a touchdown, and he managed to have a good fantasy day, but we still haven’t seen his elite ceiling lately. Well, I think that all changes this week.
The Bears' defense is in shambles. They are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points, seventh-most rushing yards, and third-most rushing TDs to the RB position. Although we saw A.J. Dillon get more work last week, this has been the Aaron Jones show all year. I’m calling for the veteran to open the Pie Shop again and score his sixth (and potentially seventh) touchdowns of the season.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week. (Season Calls: 9-7)
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
I know, this is an obvious one. So let's up the game here, if either of these two WRs finishes outside of the top 12 of the position, I won’t consider it a success. That’s right, I have huge expectations for these two players. Not only is it because I am a Bengals fan and can’t wait to see a rematch of two electric games last year, but this matchup is perfect.
The Chiefs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the WR position, the seventh-most receptions, the seventh-most yards, and the most touchdowns to the position. This Chiefs team is arguably the best in the league right now, even though their defense makes them a better version of the Detroit Lions. I’m saying this because it seems the Chiefs are accepting that teams will score on them but are banking on Patrick Mahomes coming out on top. Now that’s a game script I want Joe Burrow airing it to Ja’Marr Chase and his sidekick Tee Higgins in.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
What a monster week it was for Engram against the Ravens. I’m talking 80% of snaps, one target, one reception, and four yards. He’s elite. So you bet your boots I’m calling him my boom player this week.
For the first eight weeks of the season, Engram was very solid for fantasy. However, in his last three games, he has failed to crack three fantasy points. Thankfully, he faces a Lions team that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to the position and the third-most TDs. With the breakout performance of Zay Jones last week, it would seem that Engram is falling down the target hierarchy. However, I’m embracing this risk and calling him to be a top-12 TE this week at the position.
Bust Picks
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, SF)
On one side of this game, we have my boom call Jimmy G., and on the other, we have Tua. This game is going to be awesome. We finally get to see the Dolphins take on a truly elite defense. If anyone can slow down this Dolphins team, it’ll be San Francisco.
I’m on record saying that I think the 49ers might be the best team in the league, if not certainly the best team in the NFC. So I guess that shows you my belief in this defense. Over the last five weeks, the 49ers are averaging 12.8 fantasy points to opposing QBs. This has largely to do with them averaging only half a passing TD per game over that span. With the weapons he has, it’s hard to see Tua completely busting. However, if he scores 12.8 fantasy points or fewer, I’ll be calling that a success.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
I got away with calling Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins boom players, so I have to at least match that boldness in the bust column. Barkley has been great all season and is the fantasy RB5. Even in bad game scripts, the offense runs through the star back, giving him a very safe floor. However, lately, he has had three of his last four games with 3.5 or fewer yards per carry. I know that’s not the best stat, but he also hasn’t had more than 13 receiving yards in his last four games.
This week, he faces a tough divisional opponent in the Commanders. Although the Giants are hoping to get some players back from injury, the Commanders are averaging the third-fewest fantasy points to the RB position over the last five weeks. Arguably, more importantly, they are allowing the fewest receiving yards to the position over that span. I think it’s going to be a tough day for Barkley, and I think there is a good chance he finishes outside of the top 12 on the week.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
As I said, if I’m calling Chase a boom, I have to match that energy on the back end. Last week, I tried to get too cute with my picks, and my bold WR bust call in CeeDee Lamb didn’t go too well. This week, I’m going for absolutely adorable with my picks and taking everyone’s favorite star WR.
Jefferson just torched a very stout New England team and has been electric all season. This week, he faces a Jets team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points (by nearly 2.5 fantasy points) over the last five weeks. To put that in perspective, 2.5 fantasy points is the margin between second and ninth.
You’re always playing Jefferson, and he will probably be great. However, in this matchup, you can beat the Jets on the ground. Plus, I think Mike White will come back down to earth and force the Jets to be playing from behind. Therefore, I’m prepared to look silly in next week’s article, but if Jefferson is outside of the top 10 at the position, I’ll be victory-lapping.
Pat Friermuth (TE, PIT)
There is only one position that the Falcons aren’t miserable at defending, and that’s the TE. The Muth hasn’t scored fewer than five fantasy points in each of his last five games. For a TE, that’s every week starter territory. However, this week I’m calling for him to end that streak. The Falcons are allowing the seventh-fewest yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to the TE position over the last five weeks. I expect both George Pickens and Diontae Johnson to have solid days, taking away from Friermuth’s usage.
Thanks for reading my work! I’ll be here next week with more hot takes and analysis as we prepare for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Recap:
Boom:
- Joe Burrow: 270 yards, 32 rushing yards, 18 fantasy points
- James Conner: 140 yards, three receptions, one fumble, one TD, 19.5 fantasy points
- Parris Campbell: 14 yards, two receptions, 2.4 fantasy points
- Foster Moreau: 33 yards, three receptions, one TD, 10.8 fantasy points
Bust
- Ryan Tannehill: 291 yards, nine rushing yards, 12.5 fantasy points
- Dalvin Cook: 56 yards, four receptions, 7.6 fantasy points
- CeeDee Lamb: 106 yards, six receptions, 14.7 fantasy points
- George Kittle: 26 yards, three receptions, 4.1 fantasy points
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