As Potential Turns to Promise: Get in on the Ground Floor

With every NBA season comes a cast of perennial All-Stars and wave-making rookies, but in a grey area outside of these two groups lies a set of high-potential players in the developmental stage, getting minimal minutes in NBA garbage time or bouncing back and forth to their G League affiliate. Some of these players are "projects", some of them can't crack the rotation of their respective NBA franchises because it is already occupied by more polished; veteran players, and some of them have just lost momentum/hype with subsequent draft classes or had to basically start from scratch with new teams.

Sometimes, these players are every bit what we thought they could be (and more) when they first came to our attention, and are either waiting for the right opportunity or slowly proving their worth in limited samples of NBA play. A talented player taking a big step in their career and emerging for their big league squad in the middle of a season can cause drastic ripple-effects, particularly for Fantasy Basketball Managers in the deeper or categorical formats. Let's discuss five uniquely-situated players (and let's honorably mention a few more) with the potential to pay great dividends on early, low-cost investments this season if they are able to make the leap and break into the rotation.

Slightly Slept-On Gems Worthy of Investment

Daishen Nix (G, HOU):

There have only been four McDonald's All-Americans who call the state of Alaska their home, and one of them is still just 20 years old and currently in the midst of his third year of professional basketball. Playing with G League Ignite can be a phenomenal launching point for the cream of the crop of basketball's elite talent who have chosen to forgo the traditional route through the college ranks; but there are risks to surrounding yourself with the world's top, young prospects at what is meant to be a developmental stage. It was these pitfalls that made Daishen Nix's road to the NBA a little bit longer and a little less certain, but he's now starting to take form of the Andre Miller-esque player we thought he could become.

Nix went from averaging 8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.0 steal in 26.5 MP on 17.6% three-point shooting in 15 games for Ignite in 2020-21; to 20.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 2.0 steals in 34.2 MP on 40% three-point shooting (1.7 make per game) in 18 games for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers last season. He saw 261 minutes across 24 games for the 2021-22 Houston Rockets, which he has already surpassed in 2022-23 to the tune of 376 minutes in 25 contests, averaging 3.8 points, 2.6 assists, and 0.7 steals with 33.9% long-range accuracy. His abilities to score and take care of the ball still have quite a way to go despite his already substantial improvement in those departments, but his steal percentage of 2.3% ranks third for the Rockets behind Tari Eason and Usman Garuba, while his 23.4% assist rate is second on the team behind only Kevin Porter Jr. He's been on the floor more with each passing month, and in just 15.8 MP for December, he has been producing 5.0 points, 3.0 boards, and 3.7 assists per night, and has only committed nine turnovers to 22 assists as compared to a ratio of 42 assists to 27 TOs for October through November.

At this point in still being 20, Nix might be just an assists/steals guy, but that's all he needs to be. The Rockets have plenty of young scorers & playmakers throughout their NBA roster and farm system, and if used properly, Nix could be instrumental in distributing the ball to all he shares the floor with. He is still a specialist, but that can take you very, very far in the NBA; so as his shooting and decision-making continuously improves, Daishen Nix needs to be on watch-lists for those in need of passing and statistically-measured defense as Houston sinks further into the Western Conference basement.

Jason Preston (G, LAC):

The magic of March Madness can do a lot to propel an unheralded prospect's career, but it goes a long way to capitalize on that momentum/timing into the draft and through the start of your rookie campaign. Once that momentum is lost and the basketball world sets its sights on a new batch of pro-hopefuls, it can be incredibly difficult to gain back the position you held. Former Ohio Bobcat point guard Jason Preston had us all on notice of the full array of his skillset entering the 2021 NBA Draft, and after missing the entire 2021-22 season following surgery on his right foot (injured in the 2021 preseason--huge bummer), the former All-MAC selection (1x First-Team, 1x Second-Team, 1x Freshman-Team) is reminding us all why we fell in love with the player who orchestrated a #13-seed over #4-seed upset of Virginia in the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Preston has only played 412 minutes over 13 games of G League action for the Ontario Clippers (coming in the 2022-23 G League Showcase), but he capitalized on every moment; averaging 12.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 2.1 turnovers, and 1.5 threes per game (35.8%) in 31.7 MP, with a 60.1% true shooting percentage. At the NBA level, he has accumulated a mere 27 minutes over four contests, but he played for 14.5 minutes on 12/3 against Sacramento and put up nine points, two boards, and three assists, going 1-5 from deep to cap 2-6 shooting over that three-game stretch. More importantly, Preston's assist rate of 31.2% is second on the Clippers to only John Wall, and his turnover rate (12.6%) is better than all of the Clippers top-six assist rate-getters except for Kawhi Leonard, and also beats out LA utility players like Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington.

The Clippers have numerous promising prospects at guard, but none as well-rounded and highly-skilled as Preston. They certainly have a wide variety of reserves at the NBA level, but none of them have the passing acumen and triple-double skillset of Preston; and while they pose a potent play-making trio of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and John Wall (with Reggie Jackson starting every game at PG), between the health issues and intermittent inactivity of that group, the door will be open for Preston to make his mark and carve out an initial role off the bench for the Clips. When he plays in a decent sample-size of minutes, he statistically produces across the board, and it is much easier to let him do that when he is already shooting with competent accuracy from three-point territory. If the right pieces fall into place and the right circumstances manifest for Jason Preston,  he could take on a little bit of every niche guard role currently occupied by his Clipper teammates en route to a sleepy but substantial comeback year.

Josh Minott (F, MIN): 

At 6'8, 205-lb., Josh Minott is usually the kind of prospect I steer clear of early on (I could've gone with Wendell Moore Jr.), as his selection with the 45th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft was based on about 98% potential and 2% pedigree. However, University of Memphis products are built a little differently, and Minott is already getting the chance to show off what he brings to the table and his burgeoning abilities for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The former four-star recruit and Jamaican National Team member averaged just 6.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, and 0.7 blocks in 14.6 MP with atrocious 14.3% three-point shooting with the Tigers last year, albeit, on his way to All-AAC Freshman Team honors. He played with a talented group that included Jalen Duren, Lester Quinones, Emoni Bates, and Landers Nolley, but he still ranked fourth on the team in rebounding percentage (14.4%), fourth in block percentage (5.4%), third in steal percentage (3.1%), and second in box plus/minus (7.2).

In 34.3 MP over 11 G League Showcase games for the Iowa Wolves, Minott exploded for 17.8 points, 8.5 boards, 2.7 assists, and 1.6 blocks with 1.3 threes per contest (41.2%) and a 62.7% true shooting percentage. He has only appeared in three games (11 total MP) for the big league T-Wolves as a rookie starting on 11/28 vs. the Wizards, but in his two best games (7 total MP), he has combined for eight points, three rebounds, two assists, and a block. He has played with offensive efficiency, continued from his G League Showcase run, and in his limited sample of time ranks third in Minnesota in rebounding percentage (15%), third in steal percentage (4.3%), and first in block percentage (8.4%) above even the likes of Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert.

The T-Wolves currently sit at 11th place in the West with a 13-15 record. The injuries are starting to pile up to some of their man statistical contributors, and in the categories of rebounds, steals, and blocks, there is a rather large drop-off between the top T-Wolves and the reserves. His professional production already lends credence to the potential he was said to possess at Memphis, and he's just about one injury or one solid game away from supplanting another member of the bench. If he can work up to the Bryn Forbes-Taurean Prince range of PT, Josh Minott can be uncovered as a real rookie gem in producing microwave defensive plays and work off the glass.

Patrick Baldwin Jr. (F, GS):

Ah, the curious case of Patrick Baldwin Jr.: the plot thickens. Now 20 years old, the 6'9, 220-lb. forward was a McDonald's All-American selection and an elite five-star recruit who received an offer from Duke as a high school sophomore. He made headlines by forgoing the blue bloods in lieu of being coaches by his dad at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He and other famous named like Vin Baker Jr. and Moses Bol composed a highly talented Panthers squad, but injuries and concern over professional prospects forced the team to a miserable 10-22 season, with Baldwin playing in just 11 games. However, this didn't stop NBA franchises from taking a chance on his enticing talent, and he was drafted 28th overall in 2022.

In 27.1 MP across nine games for the G League Santa Cruz Warriors, he got off to a nice start with 10.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.9 threes per contest (though at just a 30.4% clip). One would think that he would be a full-year G League development project, but the Golden State Warriors have brought him right along with their future core of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody. He has played 32 total minutes over five games for Golden State this year, totaling 16 points, six rebounds, and three steals with 4-11 three-point shooting (36.4%). His steal percentage of 4.4% measures best on the Warriors roster, and he is the only player on the team with offensive and defensive box plus/minus figures greater than 1.0 (OBPM - 1.8/DBPM - 1.6).

This is more of a wildcard selection, but one that could pay off. The Warriors stand 10th in the West at 14-15, and a steady slew of injuries to the core contributors have cracked windows of opportunity for the young prospects of Golden State. It is surprising that he has even seen the floor at all in 2022-23, so I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see that trend continue as he rounds out his game and grows more into an NBA physique. He isn't even on a two-way deal, so the chances will keep coming. It's like a Michael Porter Jr. situation with a little more uncertainty and fewer health concerns, and considering the impact that players of that sort have had mid-season over the last few years, it is well worth your while to keep Patrick Baldwin Jr. on your radar and to be ready to invest when the time comes for the segment of Warrior youth to break through.

Charles Bassey (C, SA):

It pays to be in the know on professional products from Western Kentucky University, and just like the horn I've been tooting for Bailey Zappe over the last two years and the horn I will toot for Jamarion Sharp down the road, I've sung the praises of former Hilltopper's big man Charles Bassey since he was fresh off of a redshirt campaign in 2019-20. Born in Lagos, Nigeria, the 6'11, 235-lb. center was CUSA Freshman of the Year, 2x CUSA DPOY, CUSA POY, a 2021 Third-Team All-American; and most recently in 2022 was named G League All-Rookie, G League All-Defensive, and All-NBA G League Second Team.

He was drafted 53rd overall in 2021 after producing 17.6 points, 11.6 boards, and 3.1 blocks per game while shooting 30.5% from three and 75.9% from the FT line for WKU. He continued along this line in 2021-22 with the Delaware Blue Coats, putting up 18.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks per game with a .657 effective field goal percentage and 72.2% true shooting percentage. He is now with the San Antonio Spurs organization, and he put up 24.3 points, 12.7 boards, and 3.7 blocks per game in the 2022-23 Showcase, but now a greater role has come calling. The Spurs have been missing centers Zach Collins and Jakob Poeltl, and with the only other more veteran options being Gorgui Dieng and Isaiah Roby, Bassey finally found a situation with a coach willing to give him a chance at legitimate NBA PT, an opportunity which he has prosperously cashed in on.

In 16.2 MP over 18 games, Bassey is producing 6.0 points, 6.1 boards, and 1.2 blocks a game with a .701 effective field goal rate (second on the team), and ranks second among Spurs in true shooting percentage (70.4%), first in rebounding percentage (20.8%), and first in block percentage (6.4%, about twice as good as Poeltl/Collins/Dieng), and he has only been heating up of late and building up steam with so much of the key San Antonio front court out of action. This is a player who many are already receiving dividends from, and it was abundantly clear from the start of his pro career that if teams could just get past whatever exactly is bothering them about him, that Charles Bassey could quickly make a name for himself as an elite shot-blocker with unusually good shooting touch without giving up the core characteristics of near-seven-foot centers. Even if Collins and Poeltl make quick returns, he has earned his place in front of Dieng and Roby, and frankly, I'm not convinced that he isn't already the second-best center on the Spurs roster. Why it has taken this long--I do not know. What I do know is that if Charles Bassey continues to play for around 20 minutes a night, he truly could be a massive difference-maker for Fantasy Basketball Managers in need of a statistical/categorical spark at this point in the season.

Honorable Mentions

Guards:

Jaden Hardy (DAL), Jay Scrubb (ORL), James Akinjo (NYK), Sharife Cooper (CLE), Jamaree Bouyea (MIA).

Forwards:

Michael Foster Jr. (PHI), Luka Samanic (BOS), Dominick Barlow (SA), Ron Harper Jr. (TOR), Chima Moneke (SAC).

Centers:

Ibou Badji (POR), Orlando Robinson (MIA), Vernon Carey Jr. (WAS), Mfiondu Kabengele (BOS), Marko Simonovic (CHI).

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