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Being the receiving back for the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL can pay fantasy dividends. Just look at Jerick McKinnon. Over the past two games, McKinnon has amassed 16 targets for 12 receptions and 96 receiving yards. With a smattering of rushing attempts dolloped on top, the Chiefs' RB3 has become a solid flex option.
In fact, McKinnon has finished as a low-tier RB2 in each of the past two weeks. He has finished as the RB39 or better every week since Week 5. You would have done better starting McKinnon over Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, and Isiah Pacheco last week.
So should you add Jerick McKinnon to your fantasy team, and should you start him in Week 11? Let’s take a look.
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What Is Behind Jerick McKinnon’s Rise?
McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have both been involved heavily in the Chiefs' passing game. Edwards-Helaire was targeted 3.0 times per game during the first six weeks of the season while he was the starter, a little bit more frequently than McKinnon was targeted. In Week 7, Isiah Pacheco took over as the starter, and CEH lost playing time. Since then, McKinnon has become the lead third-down back.
| Edwards-Helaire | McKinnon | |||||
| Snap % | Targets/Game | Rec/Game | Snap % | Targets/Game | Rec/Game | |
| Weeks 1-6 | 44% | 3.0 | 2.7 | 43% | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Weeks 7-10 | 17% | 1.7 | 0.3 | 48% | 6.3 | 4.7 |
Through the first six weeks, McKinnon had run 104 routes and been targeted 13 times for a rate of one target per 8.00 routes run. In the past three games, he has run 84 routes and been targeted 19 times, a rate of one target per 4.42 routes.
In short, McKinnon has seen his volume increase slightly and his efficiency increase greatly. Isiah Pacheco is not the receiving threat that Edwards-Helaire is, so CEH’s shrinking role means McKinnon has the receiving work mostly to himself.
Is Jerick McKinnon’s Momentum Sustainable?
McKinnon has only scored double-digit PPR points in a game twice this season—in each of the past two weeks. Is recent rise evidence of a new larger role in the offense, or is it just a random variation that won’t continue?
In one of McKinnon’s best weeks, Week 9, Patrick Mahomes attempted 68 passes, and McKinnon caught six of them for 40 yards. Eight targets on 68 attempts is a target rate of 11.8%, slightly higher than McKinnon’s season-long numbers, but not too impressive. If he were targeted on 11.8% of 40 pass attempts, that would only be four or five targets.
Still, three targets in a game are more than McKinnon had in each of Weeks 2, 3, and 4. In Weeks 3 and 4, he was only targeted a single time each game. It would be a safe assumption to say that he probably will not be so under-utilized the rest of the season.
What is McKinnon’s Schedule Like in the Fantasy Football Playoffs?
The Chiefs have two favorable matchups and one tough matchup in Weeks 15-17. The first two games are against the Texans and the Seahawks. Houston and Seattle rank in the bottom third of the NFL in passing yards allowed per attempt. Houston allows 7.2 yards per attempt—26th-most in the NFL—but opponents who are usually in the lead do not attempt so many passes against them.
Seattle in Week 16 is the Chiefs' best playoff matchup. That would be the semi-finals of most leagues. Seattle’s passing defense is on the leakier side, and the Seahawks might be able to keep the score close, so Kansas City will have to throw the ball more.
Denver in Week 17, the fantasy championships, is a tough defense. They allow the fewest passing yards per game and per play. When you combine that with the fact that the Broncos don’t put many points up on the board, it looks like it won’t be a good fantasy day for the Chiefs receivers.
Last season, the Chiefs beat the Broncos 22-9 the first time they played, and Mahomes only attempted 29 passes. He threw for 184 yards and no touchdowns. The Chiefs' games against the Broncos could go the same way this year. Since McKinnon just gets a couple of carries per game, he won’t necessarily benefit from the Chiefs running the ball heavily.
Should I Add Jerick McKinnon in Fantasy Football?
Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon is a good pickup for teams struggling with RB injuries and bye weeks. I would add McKinnon ahead of Dontrell Hilliard, Nyheim Hines, Rex Burkhead, Deon Jackson, Caleb Huntley, James Cook, and Avery Williams.
His Week 11 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is less-than-ideal. The Chargers rank No. 13 in slowing the opposing passing game. While opposing running backs run all over the Chargers, LA does not allow many receiving yards to RBs. When the Chiefs played the Chargers in Week 2, Mahomes only threw for 235 yards, his fewest of the season.
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