RADIO
We have made it to Week 10. We are officially over halfway through the NFL season, and it's been a rough few weeks after a strong start to the year. Teams and players have been inconsistent and tough to predict, but we're operating off a large sample at this point which should make our job a little bit easier as the back half of the year wears on. The most important thing to remember is that we have to keep pushing forward every single week.
It was a tough showing last week as we went 2-3 to move to 19-26 overall on the year. Aaron Jones got hurt early in the game, and I think Sam Ehlinger might have had more sacks than he did passing attempts against the Patriots. Travis Etienne and Stefon Diggs gave us a pair of easy wins, but for whatever reason, the Carolina Panthers just refused to throw the ball to D.J. Moore. I’m not sure why considering they were trailing by double digits essentially the entire game.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 10
O64.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans is averaging 77.1 yards per game this season. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards, and we’re unlikely to see that change anytime soon, although Chris Godwin has been gradually reeling him in with shorter catches underneath in the targets and receptions category. However, Evans remains Brady’s chief target, especially on throws down the field.
Evans ranks fifth in the NFL in air yards, and he has an average depth of target of 13.1 yards, which ranks 16th among wideouts. On the year, the Seattle Seahawks have been a decent defense, but they’re still allowing a fair bit of receiving work to certain players. WR1s have been averaging 62.3 yards per game against them. This is just below Evans’ line, which he has cleared in four of his last six games, with one of those under games being against the Los Angeles Rams and Jalen Ramsey. He’s seen double-digit targets in each of his last three games, and that volume should help him clear this mark this week.
O9.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
In the last few weeks, we’ve started to notice a trend with Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields. In the games where Chicago is strong and hanging around on offense, he’s on the run. When they’re struggling or out of the game, he’s more contained to the pocket. This Detroit Lions offense isn’t going to run anyone off of the field right now, especially on Sunday when the temperature is a high of 39 degrees.
Fields has cleared this mark just four times in nine games this season, but he’s cleared it in three of his last four, with a season-high 15 carries last week. The early-season offense that had Fields standing in the pocket nearly every dropback has started to fade away, and the playcalling has drawn up more and more designed runs for him. Against a defense that ranks 26th by DVOA against the run, I like going after Fields to continue running this week.
O68.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Similar to Stefon Diggs last week, this play is somewhat based on trusting the guys that have been treating you well rather than searching for players that might have the narrative going in their favor that week. On the season, when he’s had Tua Tagovailoa in at quarterback, Jaylen Waddle has been a terrifying weapon. In games fully quarterbacked by Tua, Waddle has cleared this mark in six-of-six games, and he also cleared it against the Minnesota Vikings with Skylar Thompson under center.
The Cleveland Browns are in the middle of the pack against wide receivers this year, as they’re giving up an average of 147.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts, although they are 18th by DVOA against the pass. This Dolphins' passing game fully runs through Waddle and Tyreek Hill with 170 targets between the two of them compared to 142 for the rest of the roster combined. Waddle should find this line approachable this week.
Dameon Pierce
O77.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
We’ve seen a shift in how NFL teams are operating this year. In the past, if they were trailing, it was almost a lock that they were going to start throwing the ball more. Well, the Houston Texans and running back Dameon Pierce are one of the teams going the opposite way of that trend. They are always working to establish the running game. As long as they’re not trailing by double-digits, they’re getting him the ball.
He’s gone for 20 or more carries in three of the last four games, and he’s cleared this mark specifically in five of his last six contests despite his team winning just one of those games. The New York Giants are giving up an average of 85 rushing yards to opposing RB1s, and they rank 24th against the run overall. This Giants team doesn’t blow anyone out, so Pierce should have no problem staying busy all game long.
Chris Olave
O60.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave leads all rookie wideouts in receiving yards, and he’s in a great spot to stretch out that lead in Week 10 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is 21st by DVOA against the pass this season, and they’re giving up an average of 96.4 yards per game to opposing WR1s. Even if teammate Jarvis Landry returns this week, Olave is far and away the team’s leading wideout.
He’s cleared this mark in two of the last three games, and he had 52 yards with five catches on seven receptions in a 24-0 blowout against Las Vegas where he played just 58 percent of the snaps. Olave has seen six or more targets in all but the first game of the season, and he’s gone for 60 or more yards in five games this season. Since seeing just three targets in Week 1, he’s hit this mark in every game where he’s played at least 60 percent of the snaps. As long as he’s on the field, this number is well within play.
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