Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – What To Do With Kyle Pitts, Gerald Everett, T.J. Hockenson

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 9 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

The truth of the matter is that during the offseason, we as analysts and fantasy managers everywhere spend way too much time trying to decipher this wretched position. We look at the mid-TE1s and wonder who could possibly elevate their game to being top-three. The truth is our time is better spent on the other three positions. There are essentially three groups of tight ends. We have our elite tight ends, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. That's it, there are just two. Then we have the tight ends everyone overdrafts because they think they might become elite. Think Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, etc. Then we have our dart throws. These are Gerald Everett, David Njoku, Cole Kmet, Evan Engram, and Albert Okwuegbunam. We want to live in either the first group or the third group.

There's simply no point in spending valuable draft capital at the tight end position unless you absolutely know you're getting elite production. Goedert has been great this year, but you could have drafted Christian Kirk or DeVonta Smith and added 1–2 extra points to your overall lineup. Fantasy managers are better served waiting to take a few dart throws late in their drafts and this year, there have been several good dart throws.

However, now that we have eight weeks of football in the books, it's a lot easier for us to come to some conclusions as to who all these players are. It's not astonishing to me just how completely different this position can look from the offseason to Week 9 to Week 18. This position continues to be so driven by touchdowns, which can be incredibly difficult to predict. With hindsight now fully available to us, let's talk about what fantasy managers should be doing with some of these tight ends.

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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Over the last three weeks, Kyle Pitts has found the end zone twice and he's the TE6 over that span with a 9.4 PPG average. He's coming off a Week 8 performance that has been the best of his season. He earned 9 targets, which is the most he's seen in any game this season, and finished with 5 receptions, 80 yards, and 1 touchdown. He finally got the workload his talent deserves.

Week 8 TE Fantasy Usage

Get ready for this list...

1 Tyler Conklin (16.8 exp half PPR)
2 Kyle Pitts (13.9) hello
3 Taysom Hill (11.0)
4 Isaiah Likely (10.8)
5 Cade Otton (9.9)
6 Freiermuth (9.3)
7 Zach Ertz (8.9)
8 Foster Moreau (8.4)
9 Evan Engram (9.3)
10 Dalton Schultz (7.9)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 31, 2022

Over the last two weeks, Pitts has registered target shares of 41.7% and 32.1%. This is everything fantasy managers have wanted to see. It's finally happening. Head coach Arthur Smith has finally seen the light and he has recognized the transcendent talent that Pitts is. Well, not quite so fast. Despite being the TE6 over the past three weeks, he's averaging just 5.3 targets per game over that span, which ranks just 16th among tight ends. This exhibits just how powerful touchdowns can be at this position – Pitts just happened to score two of them over the past three weeks.

Kyle Pitts ranks…

📍2nd in Target Share 🔥
📍2nd in Air Yard MS 🔥
📍5th in YPTPA
📍2nd in WOPR 🔥
📍7th in PFF Grade
📍7th in Yards / RR
📍1st in aDOT 🔥

amongst ALL Tight Ends. yet… when it comes to Fantasy Points per Game, Pitts ranks 17th 😳

BUY WINDOW = OPEN 🤑

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) November 1, 2022

There's no denying his talent. There's no denying his efficiency metrics when given the opportunity. However, even during the best three-game stretch of his 2022 season, Pitts' overall utilization still pales in comparison to our top-10 tight ends. From Weeks 6–8, Pitts is tied for 20th with just 3.3 receptions per game. He's just 19th in yards per game with 36. Jordan Akins, Tyler Conklin, and Hayden Hurst all have more. He's just 22nd in route per game. In fact, Tanner Hudson and Noah Fant have run more routes. While the touchdowns were great, there's nothing to indicate fantasy managers should expect them to continue.

Pass Rate Over Expected over the last 4 weeks

Subtitle: Arthur Smith's wet dream

courtesy of @TimboSlice003 pic.twitter.com/FiIXT3D4NE

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 25, 2022

The Falcons have overtaken the league as the league's most run-heavy offense. Over the past three weeks, Atlanta has averaged just 18.3 pass attempts per game. There are 12 teams in the NFL whose number of pass attempts over that time span is more than double that. If you're rostering Kyle Pitts and wondering what you need to do, the answer is...

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

I've been hesitant about Gerald Everett's rest-of-season value for a while now. The reason is, he's running a route on just over 62% of Justin Herbert's dropbacks. That limited utilization is going to make things awfully difficult for him to stay fantasy relevant once all of their receivers are healthy. The belief, at least what it had been, was that Keenan Allen was almost healthy. Allen and Everett have earned their targets in the same area of the field and there's no question about who the better player is – that's Allen in a landslide. So, if Allen comes back, and with Everett's route participation at just 62%, how is the fantasy goodness going to continue?

Well, unfortunately for the Chargers, Keenan Allen seems to still be battling his Week 1 hamstring injury. He indicated his injury actually got worse over their bye week and Mike Williams is still a few weeks from returning. That means fantasy managers can continue treating Everett as the TE1 he's been so far this season. He ranks as the TE12 in half-PPR, averaging 8 PPG. So why was I advocating to sell? Because he's a borderline TE1 as it is, despite him working in the most optimal of conditions. Luckily for fantasy managers, those conditions look like they'll hold for several more weeks.

Through eight weeks, Everett is averaging 6.4 targets per game, which ranks seventh among tight ends. It should be noted that every single tight end averaging 6 or more targets this season also have a target share of 17% or higher. Everett is at 15.2%. This is another red flag. What happens when Allen and Williams are back? He's 15th in receptions per game at 3.9 and 12th in yards per game with 43.6. Everett's saving grace is that despite his 62% route run participation, which ranks 20th, he's running the sixth most routes per game with just over 29 per game.

Week 7 TE Fantasy Usage

1 Gerald Everett (15.8 exp half PPR)
2 George Kittle (14.8)
3 Mike Gesicki (12.3)
4 Greg Dulcich (10.5)
5 Pat Freiermuth (10.3)
6 Travis Kelce (10.1)
7 Hayden Hurst (9.8)
8 Evan Engram (9.5)
9 Juwan Johnson (9.4)
10 David Njoku (9.9)
-
12 Kyle Pitts (8.0)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 24, 2022

With Williams playing just 76% of the snaps in Week 7, Allen playing just 32%, and Joshua Palmer not playing at all, Everett recorded the highest expected fantasy point total of the week. While fantasy managers shouldn't expect No. 1 usage most weeks since Kelce was on a bye and Andrews was banged up, Everett should be expected to see plenty of Justin Herbert's attention for the next few weeks.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Now that T.J. Hockenson was traded to the division rival, Minnesota Vikings, what should fantasy managers be expecting of him? With the news that Irv Smith Jr. suffered a high ankle sprain that could keep him sidelined for 10–12 weeks. While some fantasy managers may think the change in locale could have a negative impact on Hockenson's rest-of-season outlook because of the increased target competition in Minnesota compared to Detroit, the change could have a positive impact on him.

Each team's weekly pass rate over expectation:
*The #Titans clearly didn't trust Malik Willis to throw the ball
*Losing Ja'Marr Chase didn't slow the Bengals down that much
*Cowboys at expected levels the last two weeks, which is good! pic.twitter.com/RUGbC2yiRs

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) November 1, 2022

When you compare Minnesota and Detroit's weekly pass rate over expectations, fantasy managers can easily see the Vikings are relying on their passing attack much more heavily than the Lions are. Through eight weeks, the Vikings are tied for seventh with the most pass attempts per game with 38. The Lions are 15th with 35.7, but over the past three weeks, that number has fallen to 32.7.

TJ Hockenson is:

5th in YAC/REC (8.2)
7th in YPRR (1.87)
1st in YPR (15.2)
10th in target share (18.2%)

Minnesota has targeted tight ends on 18% of its pass attempts. They rank seventh in neutral pace and are tied for 8th in pass rate.

Seems good!

— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) November 1, 2022

While Hockenson currently ranks as the TE5, that is somewhat misleading since he scored 36 points of his 72.5 total points in a single week. The Vikings' passing volume should help give him a more consistent floor, while also increasing his touchdown-scoring potential. His overall fantasy output may not change, but his weekly consistency is likely to be better in Minnesota. If fantasy managers are concerned about the presence of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, it may be worthwhile to throw out a lowball offer.

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