Is Jeff Wilson Jr. Fantasy Relevant After the Christian McCaffrey Trade? Should I Hold Jeff Wilson or Start Him?

The 49ers' trade for Christian McCaffery returns Jeff Wilson Jr. to the role he had at the beginning of the season: a backup RB with almost no fantasy value.

Wilson has done a fine job of filling in for Elijah Mitchell after the Niners RB1 got injured shortly into the first game of the season., but now he is being overtaken by McCaffery, who is a much better running back than Wilson, and soon he will also be losing carries to Mitchell.

What is the outlook for Wilson for the rest of the 2022 season? Let's check it out.

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How Has Jeff Wilson Jr. Done This Season?

Wilson surprised me. I’ll be honest. I wasn’t expecting him to have this many productive fantasy games. He ran for 70-plus yards in his first four starts, by far more than he’s done in any other of the four seasons in which he has made multiple starts. His 120-yard game in Week 5 was the third 100-yard game of his career. The 4.9 yards per carry he is averaging is his highest mark yet. From Week 2 to Week 6, fantasy managers who rostered him enjoyed having the RB15 in standard and PPR on their team.

McCaffery has been playing at an elite level year after year. The Stanford alum is clearly the superior back and will be used ahead of Wilson.

Then there’s the investment. The 49ers wouldn’t have traded four draft picks, including two top 100 picks in next year’s draft, and taken a big cap hit for the next few years if they didn’t want to make McCaffrey a major part of their offense.

Will Jeff Wilson Jr. Be The RB2 For The Rest Of The Season?

It is harder to say what Wilson’s role will be after Elijah Mitchell returns. Mitchell was the RB1 heading into Week 1, and I would put him as a more talented back than Wilson when healthy. He was the RB1 in 2021, too, and nearly rushed for 1,000 yards, despite missing seven games.

Mitchell was expected to return in Week 10, after the Niners’ Week 9 bye. Now that San Fran has an elite bellcow, however, Mitchell’s return is not so important to the Niners. They could do not need to rush him back if they are worried about the potential for re-injury. More likely is that when Mitchell comes back, Wilson and Mitchell split the backup role with no true “RB2.”

In games in which Wilson played backup to Mitchell, Wilson only averaged 5.5 carries per game and 2.88 PPR points. Now you can imagine how few carries he’ll get playing as either the RB3 or the RB2b.

Bottom line: Wilson is at best an RB2 for one week then will likely be splitting backup duties. Either way, he will hardly have enough carries to be a serviceable fantasy starter.

What Is Wilson's Value in Dynasty?

Wilson is an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season. Since the 49ers have two touted rookies in Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price, they might let Wilson walk. Wilson has shown he can be a capable starter on a team with a good system, but he would probably do worse on almost any other team. Many RBs come and go from Shanahan's system and don't recreate their previous success. It's likely other teams view Wilson as a talented backup, like how San Fran has viewed him.

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