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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev on 10/22/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Third-last numbered event of the 2022 calendar year in the UFC promotion, this one! After more than a month since we watched the last one (one in which, adding wood to the fire, there was not a single title up for grabs) Dana is blessing us with a two-belt night this Saturday in which both the Lightweight (vacant) and Bantamweight crowns are on the line and ready to be claimed.
You will need to keep an eye on your clock this weekend, though, as we're moving to Abu Dhabi in the UAE and the festivities will get going much earlier than usual due to the different time zones. Oliveira, Makhachev, Sterling, and Dillashaw will all be aiming at leaving the UAE with bling-bling on their bellies. We can't wait to see who ends up earning those bragging rights.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev on 10/22/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Oliveira, $7800 - vs. Islam Makhachev
It has taken Oliveira years to reach the absolute pinnacle of the sport, but he has surely made it there. Oliveira, who last fought in May defeating Justin Gaethje, did so at just 32 years of age while entering the Octagon for the 28th time already. It marked his third title fight in a row and although it was ruled "null" as he missed weight, he still defeated his foe and earned his 11th consecutive win; Oliveira has not lost a fight since Dec. 2017.
Islam Makhachev finally got to a title fight after 12 attempts... and a near-perfect 11-1 record in his UFC career since entering the promo in 2015. Makhachev's four most-recent fights have all taken place from March of 2021 on in four-month runs, all of them finishing in before reaching the final buzzer (one KO, three submissions).
Oliveira and Makhachev are similar in that none of them really puts on massive striking volume nor chase takedowns crazily. On the other hand, they're freaking surgical when it comes to spotting windows of opportunity to finish their foes whether that's via KO or submission. Cue the aforementioned four finishes by Makhachev or Oliveira's 10-of-11 early wins.
These two are just incredible at what they do for a living. As simple as that. I'd rather roster Oliveira than Mkhachev this weekend as his fantasy floor is a little bit higher. The ceilings are pretty much the same and would come down to finish the other fighter. Oliveira has also faced much stronger opponents of late leading up to and while fighting for the title so he should be the favorite to get the W and the larger DKFP bounty.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
T.J. Dillashaw, $7700 - vs. Aljamain Sterling (C)
This fight will be the second one on Sterling's schedule over the full 2022 calendar year. That hasn't happened since 2019 when Sterling faced two opponents on his way to the final push for the title fights he ultimately ended up getting in 2021. Nothing that should worry Sterling that much, though, considering Dillashaw's recent past after his post-2019 hiatus because of a two-year suspension.
TJ had his best run in the UFC when he got to the promo leading up to his first reign between 2014 and 2015. Dominick Cruz stripped the gold from his belt in 2016 but TJ was good to grab it from Cody Garbrandt and retain it for a defense until Henry Cejudo knocked him cold in 32 seconds and sent him home for two years and a half.
Of course, TJ is now back and looking as good as he's ever done. Dillashaw faced a top-tier opponent in his comeback (95th percentile in DKFP) defeating Cory Sandhagen in July 2021 via decision. He went for 19 (!!!) takedowns although he could only land two, but he compensated for that with a 110-of-268 SS on the day.
Sterling has defeated Petr Yan in back-to-back fights (one via DQ, tho) in his most recent couple of outings and Sandhagen, via submission, before those two. While Sterling lacks the power to KO foes, his volume of striking and landing rates are fantastic. He's also a takedown freak when it comes to attempting them, going for 17 and lastly 22 in his two fights against Yan.
Dillashaw has historically been one of the most active strikers in the UFC. His volume lowered a bit in his most recent fights before the suspension although his power surged massively earning him two KO wins (and one KO defeat).
Close call, this one, but TJ's comeback fight a year ago against Sandhagen was very very convincing and has me thinking Dillashaw has it in him to go the distance racking up tons of DKFP. And even if the fight doesn't reach the full 25 minutes, I'd bet more on TJ finishing Sterling than the other way around.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Petr Yan, $9300 - vs. Sean O'Malley
Yan has one and only one kryptonite, and that goes by the name of reigning champ Aljamain Sterling. It's been two losses in Yan's career in the UFC and the two of them came to him by way of Aljamain. Other than that, Yan has been perfect and racked up an 8-2 record with four title fights and two victories over those. Half of Yan's wins also ended in KOs of his opponents with only one of those into to the fifth round.
O'Malley had his UFC debut three months before Yan's even though that doesn't seem to be right. Sugar Sean won via decision in his UFC 222 debut but after that, he's never reached the final buzzer. He got defeated by Marlon Vera in Aug. 2020 for the first and only time in his pro MMA career, and other than that just a No-Contest result in his most recent fight (July 2022) against Pedro Munhoz (eye poke) he's always KO'd his foes.
Yan and O'Malley post very similar per-minute numbers on the striking front, although on a pure counting basis it's Yan who gets the edge with 100+ SSA in all of his nine last fights compared to Sean's only two fights with more than 62 SSA since Mar. 2018. That, obviously, has a lot to do with O'Malley not even reaching the second round in four of his eight fights in the UFC.
Sean O'Malley has been the clearer boom/bust fighter so far. Yan can be considered one of those, too, but he's actually made it to the judges' decision often enough to consider him the safer/better bet as he brings a quite higher floor. Yan also has a nice takedown package and chases those adeptly while pulling them off more often than not. O'Malley wants the W like he needs breathing, but I'm betting on Yan bouncing back from his last loss to Sterling--let alone scoring more DKFP than Sean.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mateusz Gamrot, $8800 - vs. Beneil Dariush
Whoever gets the win here, let alone if it's a sound and solid one, will make a really strong case for a title fight in one or two fights at most depending on how the LW division shakes out after the main event of this card. Both Dariush and Gamrot are already in the top-10 of the division: Dariush might just be another finish from a shot, and Gamrot has put together four straight Ws after losing his debut and if he can defeat Darish he might be just one more win away from that title fight.
Dariush and Gamrot can do it on both striking and grappling. The volume is hella low on the striking front, though, but it's not that these two are going to stand for more than two rounds before hitting the mat dropped cold or submitted by the other. Since Nov. 2018, these two have combined for just three fights reaching the judges' decision in 11 total fights between them.
Dariush has two victories each via submission, KO, and decision in that span while going 6-0 from Nov. 2018 on. Gamrot, after losing his first UFC fight, has gone 4-0 with two KOs, one decision, and one submission.
Perhaps most impressive is the fact that Gamrot chased Arman Tsarukyan 21 times landing six of those takedown attempts. That's ridiculous volume, but Gamrot has attempted at least two takedowns every time he's stepped into the Octagon while averaging 10+ TDA per fight completing 3.5+ of them. Dariush has raised his takedown numbers of late, too, but he's not quite there on par with Gamrot yet (2+ TDL of the 4+ TDA he goes for every fight).
It is very hard to see this going the distance even if that's just 15 minutes. Dariush has quite a large resume of success and will be fighting for his seventh win in a row here, but I'm going to bet on Gamrot stopping that runs this weekend and climbing some spots in the LW division ranks. It wouldn't surprise me if Dana gives him a straight shot at the title if that W comes via (very) early KO/sub in a flashy way, and I'm also betting on Gamrot getting that title fight definitely before the end of 2023.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Manon Fiorot, $8900 - vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Chookagian already had her chance at lifting the WFW title back in Feb. 2020 when she faced Valentina Shevchenko for the first time. Chookagian lasted all of 11 minutes inside the Octagon before getting KO'd by the reigning champ, though, but even then Katlyn is now back at boasting the no. 1 contending rank in the division and another win (it'd be her fifth in a row) this weekend might be the only thing separating her from another shot at Shevchenko.
Fiorot will be the woman tasked with preventing that from happening, and why not get that fight herself eventually if not straight after this bout? The truth is that Fiorot couldn't have done more than she's already done going 4-0 since she entered the promo back in Jan. 2021 starting her run with two KOs and then winning two more fights via decision.
Of course, the devil is in the details, and it can be said that Fiorot has been booked against rather middling competitors so far. She has yet to fight against anyone ranked inside the 65th-or-higher percentile in DKFP per fight. Chookagian is exactly there (65th) but she's defeated fighters into the 74th, 80th, 86th, and most recently 94rd percentile throughout her career.
Both of these two can do it on both grappling and striking with very close numbers on a per-minute basis. Fiorot has shown some KO prowess in her four fights while Chookagian has never KO'd an opponent getting KO'd twice herself. Very similar floors with a little higher fantasy ceiling for Fiorot thanks to that KO power and a higher volume/success on takedowns.
