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Week 5 saw some upsets, marginal, but it could have been a lot worse. The Jaguars and Packers lost, but what would have been left of survivor pools had the Bucs, Vikings, and Chiefs lost?
Week 6 has some favorites, but not the most trustworthy ones.
All season long I'll be bringing you weekly survivor pool columns on NFL teams to target and avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2022 NFL season.
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NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 6
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Rams -10.5 vs. Panthers, Bucs -8.5 at Steelers, Packers -7 vs. Jets, Eagles -6 vs. Cowboys.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Lions, Raiders, Texans, Titans
With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 6
Rams -10.5 vs. Panthers
The Rams will be the most popular play and for good reason. The defending Super Bowl champions are home against a team that just fired their head coach, and Baker Mayfield is injured, leaving P.J. Walker to start. The Rams have struggled but what better chance to get onto the right track than against one of the worst teams in football?
But if you really think of it, Mayfield was one of the worst quarterbacks in football; dead last in QBR worth 14 points separating him to 31, bottom five in yards per attempt, and third in passing yards per game. Walker has to be better in his third career start.
The way to beat the Rams is to pressure Matthew Stafford as their offensive line is awful. But Carolina is tied for 25th in sacks. It may not look pretty but the Rams get it done.
Rams 31 - Panthers 23
Bucs -8.5 at Steelers
The Steelers are in for one long year. Their game against the Bills was over at halftime. Buffalo was doing whatever they wanted and Pittsburgh could not do anything. Their offense is tied for last in yards per play and their defense ranks 24th in that stat. Tom Brady and his new receiving corps and offensive line have not gelled and that shouldn't be expected this early on in the year, but 24 points is all they'll need to win. Tampa's defense is tied for fourth in yards per play. This will be a rough game for Kenny Pickett.
Bucs 27 - Steelers 21
Ravens -5.5 at Giants
The Giants are one of the surprises of the year with a 4-1 record. Each of their games though have been decided by one possession. The Ravens are a class above and will handily win this one. Lamar Jackson has too many weapons and while their defense has not been above average, the Giants aren't a team to score a lot.
Ravens 28 - Giants 16
Cardinals -2.5 at Seahawks
This is the risky contrarian play. The other big favorites, the Bucs, Rams, and Packers, who are in my avoids, will be the most popular plays.
Seattle has the worst defense in the league, allowing 6.6 yards per play. They've given up 45 and 39 points in the last two games, making Jared Goff and Taysom Hill look like superstars. If Kyler Murray can't get this offense to score points, then it's real trouble.
A cool quirk with this game is it will start at 5:30 Eastern Sunday if the Mariners host the Astros in Game 4 of the NLDS with the first pitch at 3:07 ET.
Cardinals 33 - Seahawks 24
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 6
Packers -7 vs. Jets
How could Green Bay be trusted with how they've looked this season? Besides the Bears game in Week 2, it took a last-second field goal of overtime to beat the Patriots, and then they blew the Giants game in London. Aaron Rodgers now has a minor thumb injury. This offense is very new and still adjusting, but the defense should be better.
The Jets are going to be coming into this one hot after scoring 40 points against Miami and this will be a competitive game. Rodgers will pull this one out, though.
Packers 23 - Jets 17
Eagles -6 vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in football which is the main way to slow down the Eagles offense led by Jalen Hurts. Dallas has allowed a touchdown in each of the last three games with the Giants scoring 16, and the Rams and Commanders 10 each. This will be Philly's toughest test and it comes on Sunday Night Football.
Eagles 20 - Cowboys 19
Chargers -5.5 vs. Broncos
This is an avoid at all costs. Both teams are way too unpredictable to get behind.
49ers -5.5 at Falcons
The Niners may be one of the best teams in football behind their stellar defense. They did lose some players so it may take some time to adjust. San Fran is also a better option to save.
49ers 26 - Falcons 20
NFL Best Bets for Week 6
- Ravens -5.5 at Giants
- Saints +1.5 vs. Bengals - Cincinnati is clearly not the same team that won on that Super Bowl run. New Orleans maybe just found their offensive recipe with Taysom Hill in a clearly designed role.
- Commanders pick at Bears - Washington is a nightmare but the Bears are an even bigger one with Justin Fields.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 2-0-1
- 2022 season: 11-3-1
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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