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Mike's CFB bettings picks against the spread for Week 6 (10/8/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
There are "only" 52 games on our Saturday slate. We know how well that went for me last week. This is a tough one to get up the nerve to write and trust me...I love this part of it. I live for this part of it. Last week was so damn bad that I almost considered omitting the spreadsheet link. However, it doesn't do me any good to hide it. I have to own it and win us our money back. That starts here.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I have a pretty good line on Iowa State and Kentucky but I don't know dick about Texas or Eastern Michigan...or most of the rest of the MAC for that matter.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 6 (10/8)
(4)Michigan(-21.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Indiana has won just once in this series since 1987 (in 2020, so I'm not sure it really counts), but Michigan struggled with them a few times in recent years. I don't think that happens here. The Hoosiers are still beaten up at receiver and the defense isn't playing all that well. Still, I don't like that half. Oh, what the hell. Michigan beat them by 22 last year. It can happen again. Give me Michigan.
(8)Tennessee(-3.5) at (25)LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I like this line, especially since LSU struggled against Auburn who basically has a freshman version of Hendon Hooker at quarterback. Tennessee's Hooker is experienced, wise, and full of talent. I do wish that Cedric Tillman were back for the Vols, but Jalin Hyatt is going to have another big game. Tennessee by double digits!
(17)TCU(-6.5) at (19)Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
College Gameday is in Lawrence! I'm seriously considering driving down there just for the experience. I've been to a couple of games with Gameday in town before, most recently when number 2 Texas Tech went to Norman in 2008 and got throttled. However, I have never been to a site that has never hosted Gameday before!
They should be in for a good one here. The Kansas defense proved last weekend that this team isn't just based on offensive chops. I like Kansas and I want them to win, but there is no juice on the spread for Kansas at several places. That makes me really nervous. The oddsmakers don't believe in the Jayhawks but I still do. They might not win, but I think they give TCU all they want. Give me KU and the points.
Arkansas at (23)Mississippi State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oooh...I really don't like that half. Arkansas let A&M wiggle off the hook only to go to StarkVegas and get embarrassed while the Piggies lost to Alabama without Bryce Young for more than half the game. Yikes. This is a winnable game for the Leaches, but that doesn't mean much. He loses games he should win (Texas Tech last year, for example) all the time. I'll take the damn cowbells, but I'm not betting on this one. However, if K.J. Jefferson is out for Arkansas, I will bet it and raise the wager to four points.
Texas(-6.5) vs. Oklahoma at Dallas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is the first time both teams have entered this game unranked since 1998. Texas won that game by 31 points. This game has not been decided by less than this spread since 2018, which is Texas's last win in the series. I don't want this to happen, but I know this spread is way too low. Texas is good and mad after last year's loss and losing in four overtimes back in 2020. Oklahoma's defense is going to get wrecked here. I'm just hoping we keep it within 14, but I doubt that happens. Texas wins BIG...and I'm going to hate every second of it...but I'm done losing my money on the Sooners. It's time to get some back.
Missouri at Florida(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line tells me that the oddsmakers think nearly beating Georgia was a fluke for the Tigers. It may well be. I didn't see it coming either. However, Missouri's defense impressed me in that game. Can they string it together for four quarters in Gainesville? That's where it gets tricky. I'm not a huge believer in the Florida offense, so I'll take the Tigers and the points. This seems a bit high, though I still think Florida wins.
Purdue at Maryland(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's little to no juice when you add that half to Maryland's side on most sites, so the -3 that it sits at almost everywhere seems about right. I don't know about that. Purdue's defense has played well, but this Maryland offense is good, they are mostly healthy (finally), and they are at home. I'll take the Turtles.
Louisville(-2.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's games like this that make me question my commitment to this endeavor. Both teams look like they are actively trying to lose, but it has been a long time since I've seen a train wreck like Virginia on both sides of the ball. This offense will come around at some point so I'm not going crazy on this bet, but Virginia's season is all but lost already. I'll take Louisville.
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
See also: Louisville at Virginia. It's directional mania! These teams also invent new ways to lose, but the Broncos' run game is going to trample the Eagles. Give me Western.
Buffalo(-2.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cole Snyder's bad game last week has me nervous. That said, Bowling Green won this game in Buffalo last year with an inferior team. They should be able to pull it off at home this year. I'll take the Falcons.
Akron at Ohio(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Seriously? Ohio has had a receiver go for more than 240 yards in each of the last two games. It will be Shocky Jacques-Louis this week. Give me the Zips outright!
Georgia Southern at Georgia State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
These two teams really don't like each other. I enjoy this great rivalry, but I don't enjoy betting on it. The juice is almost as crazy as the spreads are, so shop around. Caesar's will give you +102 odds on Georgia Southern and the points. FanDuel has -118 on the Panthers at -2.5 and -108 at -3. I think the Eagles are the better team so I'm taking them, but I'm not betting on this. There is simply too much play on both sides of the line to feel super comfortable one way or the other.
South Florida at (24)Cincinnati(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck, that's a lot of points. Not that Cincinnati isn't capable of covering it with the way USF has played lately. Give me the Bearcats.
Auburn at (2)Georgia(-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What did the Auburn defense do to deserve this? They hung with both LSU and Missouri when they really shouldn't have. Robby Ashford has had his share of mistakes, but he has been better about taking care of the ball as the starter. The Auburn defense is going to make Georgia work for this. This is too many. I'll take Auburn and the points.
Texas Tech at (7)Oklahoma State(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down four points and I'm not sure why. I love the story for Texas Tech, but storylines aren't going to help keep Donovan Smith on his feet. The Oklahoma State front seven isn't just good, they're elite. Give me the Pokes.
(11)Utah(-3.5) at (18)UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No one is talking about Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but he's quietly having a really good year. It's going to be tough sledding against Utah, but the Utes lost to a Florida team in the opener that has a lot of parallels with this UCLA squad. I like the Utah defense, but being without Brant Kuithe again could be a problem. I don't like the half, but I, like many others, don't truly trust the Bruins yet. Give me Utah, but I'm leaving this one alone. There are better spots.
Liberty(-24.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Flames are actually interested in football as opposed to the Eastern Michigan team that sleepwalked through the first three quarters against UMass last week. The Minutemen are back to being cover bait. Give me Liberty (or give me death).
Wisconsin(-9.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get this line. I really do. However, the Badgers just fired a coach that likely didn't deserve to be fired. I don't know if I see Wisconsin coming out and taking this game by ten points. Oh, who am I kidding? That Northwestern offense is generationally bad. Give me the Badgers.
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Damn right I'm nervous. The Panthers just got wrecked by the Wreck! I really hate that half too, but there's no way that I can pick the Hokies right now. This team is almost as much of a disaster as Virginia. Almost.
East Carolina at Tulane(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hope Holton Ahlers had fun last week because he won't this week. That Tulane defense is a bear. Michael Pratt is expected back for the Wave, so I'm going to ride it. This is going to be a fun game though. Make sure you have ESPNU!
Tulsa(-5.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Middies are playing better right now, but I don't think Navy can cover the Tulsa receivers all day. They are all finally healthy at once for the first time in like two years. Give me Tulsa.
Ball State at Central Michigan(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place and I'm not sure why. I figured Central getting blasted in the Glass Bowl by Toledo and the Lettermans taking out NIU would stabilize this a little. I think I like the jar of Cardinals here. Maybe not outright, but definitely within a touchdown.
Toledo(-5.5) at Northern Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Huskies might be a little snakebitten after last week's loss. Give me Toledo.
Kent State(-5.5) at Miami(OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough one. The line has been pulled in a few places and there is lots of play in it where it's still up. I don't really know what to do with it either. I'm really nervous about Kent playing poorly at Ohio last week. I'll take Miami at home, but I'm not touching this one.
Middle Tennessee State at UAB(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like an overcorrection to MTSU getting run through by the Roadrunners. I don't trust this UAB defense. I'll take the Blue Raiders. This should stay within a touchdown at the very least.
(3)Ohio State(-26.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has more than doubled since it opened and is up as high as 27.5 in spots. You can credit that to the news that TreVeyon Henderson will be in uniform for the Buckeyes. I'm not sure it matters. Ohio State likely would have covered even if they "just" had Miyan Williams. Give me Ohio State. the Spartans can't stop the run to save their souls.
(9)Mississippi(-16.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Rebels have a good defense and a ton of talent on offense. Give me Ole Miss.
(21)Washington(-13.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you can still get this at -13.5, do it. It should be higher by kickoff. I like the Washington offense a lot in this one. Give me the Huskies.
Duke(-3.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...I think I like the Bees at home. There seems to be a paradigm shift with Jeff Sims and Georgia Tech. The defense is playing well and the offense is getting there. Give me the Wreck at home.
North Carolina at Miami(FL)(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yes, have some! Josh Downs is going to torch this secondary and Drake Maye is good enough to hit him in stride. Tarheels by a touchdown or three!
Western Kentucky at UTSA(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I like the over 73 in this one and I love the Roadrunners at home. Meep meep!
Air Force(-10.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping it wouldn't go over 10, but when it opened at -9.5, I figured it was inevitable. I think Navy only kept it close last week because of the rivalry. I'm still taking Air Force.
Wyoming(-3.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The line being this low scares me. The Lobo's defense looked good against UNLV last week. Well...good for them, anyway. Wyoming's offense is a slog that almost makes Virginia look fast. This is a dangerous line. Wyoming is the better team, but that doesn't mean a lot right now. I'll take the Cowboys because of their defense, but I don't feel that good about it.
James Madison(-11.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, I know all you football-crazed lunatics have NFL Network. Now you can watch the Dukes on Saturday night! The class of the Fun Belt heads to Jonesboro. Bettors are taking notice. The JMU lines are getting much harder to pick and are getting some juice on them. I still like the Dukes in this one. It's revenge time for James Blackman. He spent the last two seasons at Arkansas State.
Appalachian State(-19.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow...that's a lot of points. App State is capable of covering this, but weird things happen in San Marcos...especially when you hit the Jack-In-The-Box downtown, but that's another story. I'm taking the Mountaineers, but lowering the bet.
Southern Mississippi at Troy(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line feels fair. The Eagles are playing much better of late and Troy...they keep slaying Giants even after blowing a Hail Mary coverage in Boone. Even if Gunnar Watson can't go, Jarret Doege looked good running the offense at the end of the Western Kentucky game. I'll take Troy.
Connecticut(-5.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this day was coming when Jim Mora Jr. took the reins in Storrs, but I still didn't think it would happen this year. UConn beats a FBS team...now they're favored. 2022 is still a bizarro world. There's a logical progression to this sort of thing and it takes longer than a week. You know what? I'm taking UConn. FIU is really bad right now.
UTEP at Louisiana Tech(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bulldogs have been slumming so long, I don't remember the last time I had to pick them. Okay, it has only been two weeks, but it feels longer. That also means that they aren't one of the teams that contributed to my misery last week. UTEP was, but it's mostly because they are adjusting to life without Josh Cowing and I am not adjusting to picking them. I'm going UTEP here, but I'm not going to bet it.
(5)Clemson(-20.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yes, this has been a lopsided series of late. The Eagles haven't won since 2010. However, Clemson has only covered this line twice in the last five years. Due to the pandemic, Clemson hasn't climbed Chestnut Hill since 2018. They've been waiting a long time for this one up there. This feels too high. Clemson wins but doesn't cover.
Washington State at (6)USC(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping this would be higher since I planned on betting the Cougars anyway. This still feels high. The USC defense has given up at least two touchdowns in every game, including four to a Stanford team stuck in neutral. They can be had defensively. USC wins, but I don't think they cover this. Give me Wazzu.
South Carolina at (13)Kentucky(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Hey, any time that I don't have to listen to a rooster crowing over a loudspeaker for four hours straight, I'm a happy guy. This line is weird, and it's all because of the status of Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. It's down to -6.5 in most spots after opening at -12.5. It still sits at -10.5 on FanDuel, so they must be more optimistic about Levis than the rest of the sites. Still, I like the discount. Levis wasn't going to be the guy that beat them on his own anyway. South Carolina's rush defense has been terrible and Chris Rodriguez is back for the Wildcats. I'm taking Kentucky regardless of the status of Levis, but halving the bet if he's out.
Army at (15)Wake Forest(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's higher than I was hoping. Wake put up 70 on Army last year while the Cadets put up 56 of their own...in a game without overtime. The over/under of 66 is tempting me too since it seems low, but I don't expect the fireworks of last year. Wake still has them though. Sam Hartman should lead the Deacons to a cover. Give me Wake.
(16)BYU vs. Notre Dame(-3.5) at Sin City
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Mormons and the Catholics in Vegas? HELL YES! The books really have no idea what to do with this one. It opened at -9.5 for the Irish and still sits at -7 in some spots. Most places have it at -3.5 now, so I'm going with that. It's a readily accessible line and you're not paying a ton of juice to half it either. I'm still on the Irish thanks to the defense and Puka Nakua likely being out again. I don't like the half though, so I'm lowering the bet some.
(20)Kansas State(-1.5) at Iowa State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is bouncing all over the place as well. ISU is favored in a few spots, but most of the juice is on K-State. Considering what the Iowa State defense did to Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks last week, I think they have a really good chance in this one, especially in Ames. Adrian Martinez is better, but we saw (well...some of us did...thanks, Mickey) what Tulane's defense was able to do to the Wildcats. I think I still like the Cyclones outright, but I'm likely leaving this one alone.
Iowa at Illinois(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Illinois got one coach fired last week. They might make it two here. They shut down a bad Wisconsin offense. Now they get one of the worst in Iowa. Illinois won't roll here due to Iowa's strong defense, but I still think they win by a touchdown in Champaign. I'll take the Illini.
Texas A&M at (1)Alabama(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The line is up a touchdown so Vegas must think Bryce Young is playing. This still feels high though. That said, Alabama is still mad over last year. I'm taking A&M, but there's no way I bet this.
Florida State at (14)North Carolina State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't really like this line. I expect a good game and there is almost no juice on the Seminoles' side. I get it. NC State shows at the very least an unwillingness to go deep to anyone but Thayer Thomas. That makes this offense a whole lot easier to deal with. Considering they couldn't really hang with Clemson last week, I think I'm taking Florida State. I'm not betting on this though.
Coastal Carolina(-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a little bit high. CCU has only beaten one of their five opponents by this line (Georgia State), and keep in mind that they played Gardner-Webb and it wasn't them. I'll take Monroe, but CCU wins.
(12)Oregon(-12.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too high. Remember what Cam Ward did to the Ducks? Jayden de Laura is good enough to do the same and he has better receivers. I don't think Arizona wins outright, but they're going to throw a scare into Duck U.
Fresno State at Boise State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bulldogs lost outright to UConn with Jake Haener out. This is too low. Boise rolls!
Hawaii at San Diego State(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Can the Aztecs even score 21? They haven't against a FBS team this year. Hawaii is really, really bad. There aren't enough superlatives to accurately describe just how bad this team has been. But San Diego State? Not much better. If New Mexico State can cover the Warriors, I think I have to go SDSU. However, this is tops on my list of games to avoid this week.
Oregon State(-7.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It opened at -7.5, so that's where I get it since it's -7 across the board right now. If Chance Nolan plays for the Beavers, this feels easy. Beavers chop down trees, right? Give me Oregon State. If Nolan is out, I'm leaving this one alone. I'll say Stanford for a point if Nolan sits.
I went with eight one-point bets, which is my most on the season. I only have 22 twos, but I made up for that with 16 three-point bets. I cut back on the fours a bit with six of them this week. My four max bets tie a season-high, and they all kick off by noon tomorrow. I will know early on just how my week is going. Good luck out there!
There's still enough for a decent parlay today. Keep some with the T's: Texas, Tennessee, and UTSA. I like UNC and Illinois to go with them. Akron and Boise if you're feeling froggy.
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