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Happy Sunday, and happy October RotoBallers! We're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 2, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 78-81-2, -21.38 units
- Sides: 36-37-1, -13.29 units
- Totals: 41-44-1, -9.67 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Nationals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: WSH +205
PHI: Zack Wheeler | WSH: Patrick Corbin
Well... we were looking to keep the momentum rolling through yesterday after going 2-0 Friday, and the baseball gods just laughed in our faces. We'll run it back today with a first-five play as well as a first inning under play.
The visiting Phillies, who come into this one with a magic number of three, will be sending ace Zack Wheeler (11-7, 2.92 ERA) to the mound. Wheeler has been great since returning from injury, maxing out at 99mph+ while being extremely efficient. He'll now make his second start against the Nats this season, following his seven-inning, one-run performance against them back on June 16th. I project him for just a 3.05 ERA while allowing just 16.51% hard contact today.
The Nats will be sending Patrick Corbin (6-18, 6.08 ERA) to the mound this afternoon. I've mentioned Corbin before in these articles, and while I respect what he's doing in terms of eating innings for the Nationals, none of it has been very good. He's thrown just 10.2 innings in three starts against the Phillies this season, allowing a whopping 20 runs (13 earned) in the process. I have him slated for a 4.88 xFIP and 48.33% hard contact allowed rate today.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Phillies F5 -0.5 at just -150 today. Now, the Phillies have seemingly been willing to give up their playoff spot to Milwaukee, who has seemingly insisted on letting them have it. While it would be very "Phillies" of them to lose this afternoon against Corbin with their ace on the mound, I just can't see it happening, especially after their offensive outburst tonight. The pressure is on, Philly, but pressure makes diamonds.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Cardinals
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: STL -220
PIT: Roansy Contreras | STL: Adam Wainwright
I'll head out to St. Louis for the second play of the day. I've been the absolute mush god in terms of taking a first-inning under when a pitcher hasn't allowed a first-inning run this season, and yesterday was no different, as Luis Ortiz allowed his first run (allowing six!) in the opening frame.
I'll run it back today behind Pittsburgh starter Roansy Contreras (5-5, 3.72 ERA). While Ortiz only had three starts on his track record, Contreras has a bit more behind him this season. He's allowed just one first-inning run in eight starts on the road, and just one in 16 starts overall. He's also held St. Louis off the board in each of his two starts against them this season, one at home and one in St. Louis.
On the other hand, the Cardinals will be sending the old man Adam Wainwright (11-11, 3.51 ERA) to the mound this afternoon. Waino has been solid this season, and will now take the ball for what will likely be the final regular-season start of his career. He's been solid in the first inning, allowing a run in just three of 16 starts at Busch Stadium as well as just 10 of 30 starts overall. It'll be his 44th start against Pittsburgh in his career, and he comes into this one with a 3.59 ERA against the Buccos. I'll back him to shut them down one final time before he rides off into the sunset.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -146, which is relatively solid value considering the game total sits at just 7. This game has the highest chance of a first-inning under according to my model today, sitting at a 61.37% chance of hitting, good for true odds of -159. Let's have a bounce-back day folks.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-146) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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