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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Steelers vs Browns showdown slate on 9/22. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's so nice that football is back, and we're back at it again with some Week 3 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We had one of, if not the most exciting Thursday Night Football matchup we'll have all year last week, and this week could quite honestly be the complete opposite. It is still a divisional rivalry though, so let's hope to see some fireworks. Let's get right to it.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Steelers vs. Browns NFL DFS showdown slate on September 22nd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jacoby Brissett - QB, $13,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 376 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 36% (8th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -13% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
We'll start off tonight's slate with Jacoby Brissett. Everyone will talk about when talking about the Browns will be the monumental collapse on Sunday, but won't mention how Brissett played prior to that. He threw for 229 passing yards as well as a touchdown and added 43 yards on the ground. He'll have a much tougher task against a stout Pittsburgh defense, but it should be noted that the Steelers' pass rush didn't look nearly as good without T.J. Watt in it on Sunday.
Kareem Hunt - RB, $11,400 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 24 attempts, 104 rushing yards, 6 targets, 6 receptions, 40 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 34.3% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -6.3% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
Sticking with the Browns' offense, I'll take a look at Kareem Hunt for my "cheaper" captain/MVP on this slate. Now I will have plenty of Nick Chubb shares, both in the captain/MVP slot as well as the flex spot. Hunt has provided a nice value pivot off of Chubb in the first two weeks, and only has a marginally lower snap rate. He's also seeing more of the targets, and the Browns have a projected 15.48% DVOA in terms of running backs in the passing game, a matchup that should favor Hunt in this spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Nick Chubb, Diontae Johnson, Browns D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Mitch Trubisky - QB, $8,600 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 362 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -7.2% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 15.7% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other hand, I'll take a look at Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky. I don't think many Steelers fans expected to escape their first two games with a win, but here we are. To be fair, I wouldn't credit Trubisky much with that Week 1 win against Cincinnati, and he hasn't looked great through two weeks. He is, however, cheap enough on this slate that I won't hesitate to slot him into a bunch of my lineups.
Najee Harris - RB, $9,800 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25 attempts, 72 rushing yards, eight targets, seven receptions, 43 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -14% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -2.6% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
I've gone back and forth whether I wanted to prioritize Najee Harris or Diontae Johnson on this slate. I'll certainly have shares of both, but I'm really projecting a defensive struggle where both teams move the ball with the run and short passing game. The most redeeming quality about Harris *right now* is his usage, seeing 16 touches per game across the first two weeks of the season. This establishes a good enough floor that I'll personally be shooting for on a shaky slate like this one.
Other Flex Options: Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth
DFS Value Plays
David Njoku - TE, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Four targets, four receptions, 44 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Myles Jack): 14% targets per route, 73% catch rate, 0.17 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I just mentioned when talking about Najee Harris that I feel like both teams will look to move the ball with the run and short passing game. I'll take a chance on Njoku here as a value play. Should the Browns get into the red zone it'll be important for Pittsburgh to keep an eye on him, as he's seen a 25% target share in the red zone as well as an end zone target rate in the first two weeks.
Cleveland Browns - D/ST, $3,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 27.5 points per game allowed, six sacks, one fumble recovery, one interception.
I've said it multiple times already and I'll say it once again, I'm projecting this game to be a defensive struggle. I'll be willing to take it on the chin if this one turns into a shootout, but that's the risk we take! The Browns' defense hasn't shown much in the first two weeks of the season, including a monumental collapse against the Jets, but still, have Myles Garrett and co. that could make life difficult for Mitchell Trubisky. I'm not particularly "afraid" of anyone on the Steelers offense, whereas the Browns have Chubb, Hunt, and Amari Cooper, so I'll lean Browns D/ST here.
Other Value Plays: Steelers D/ST, George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, Cade York
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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