RADIO
Entering Week 3 of the 2022 season, it's important to remember to stay patient. As mentioned in last week's article, fantasy players tend to overreact immediately following the first action of the season.
The exciting aspect going forward is that there are now multiple games of data to work with. Whereas everything after Week 1 feels like it could be an overreaction, we now can start to see which players are truly trending up or down.
To be as transparent as possible, before we get into Week 3's trade targets, let's review last week's.
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Week 2 Recap
Hopefully, you bought low on Breece Hall. This was the best call of the week as Hall averaged 7.5 yards per opportunity and scored his first NFL touchdown in Week 2. Michael Carter continued to run ahead of the rookie, but Hall was much more efficient and will surely see his role expand throughout the season.
Kyle Pitts seemed like an obvious buy-low candidate after Week 1 and the price just got lower after Week 2. Pitts saw just three targets and fantasy managers who drafted him early are panicking. If you acquired him cheap before last week, don't give up. The Falcons continue to line Pitts up all over the field and the schedule gets significantly easier for him after two tough matchups to begin the year. Atlanta simply has to get their 2021 fourth overall NFL Draft selection involved.
Michael Thomas came through with another solid performance, but if you managed to capitalize on his name value and big Week 1, I don't think you'll regret it. In fact, it still might be wise to sell high. Alvin Kamara was inactive last week and figures to be heavily involved in the passing game when he returns. Perhaps even more importantly, Thomas was out-targeted by rookie receiver Chris Olave, who is already showing early signs of dominance.
Chris Olave cleared 300 air yards today, via @NextGenStats data.
Only four other players since 2016 have done that in a game (including playoffs). Those names are Mike Evans, Marquise Brown, Julio Jones, and AJ Green.
Pretty fun company.
— Brandon Gdula (@gdula13) September 18, 2022
Betting against running backs coming off of Achilles injuries has historically been the correct move, but James Robinson is becoming difficult to doubt. He scored again in Week 2 and saw many more opportunities than Travis Etienne. If you did trade Robinson away, though, there's still reason to believe you made the right decision. He only averaged 2.8 yards on each of his 23 carries and one was a 37-yard touchdown. If not for the breakaway score, Robinson would have posted just six PPR fantasy points in an inefficient Week 2.
Overall, last week's advice was passable but has a chance to sound better or worse in a few weeks.
Without further ado, let's dive into the players to target and the players to trade away ahead of Week 3.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
It's been a bumpy ride for Russell Wilson and Broncos country to begin the season. The team squeezed out a win against the Houston Texans in Week 2, but this Broncos offense that was expected to be prolific has only managed 32 combined points in its first two games.
If there's one thing in Denver that has been encouraging so far, it's the usage of running back Javonte Williams.
After a nearly dead-even split last season, Williams has out-touched Melvin Gordon 34-25 to begin 2022 while seeing substantially more snaps and targets. His lack of utilization at the goal line has been puzzling, but the touchdowns will come.
Javonte is at least one end zone letter away from the closest defenders man pic.twitter.com/iEvQLVlt3w
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 19, 2022
Although Williams was eventually targeted on the above play, the pass was far too late and inaccurate.
Russell Wilson's poor showing throughout the first two weeks has been a trending topic, but he is no stranger to a slow start. In 2017, he failed to reach 200 yards passing in either of the first two weeks and only recorded one touchdown. He went on to lead the league in passing touchdowns and finish top-10 in yards. It's hard to imagine a signal-caller of Wilson's caliber not figuring out ways to be successful in an offense with this many weapons.
Williams has been solid for fantasy despite a rocky start for the Broncos. They should continue to find ways to get him the ball, especially if Jerry Jeudy (chest) misses any time. Williams won't come cheap, but with so many questions about Denver's offense, now is the time to make an offer. If head coach Nathaniel Hackett and this team can get things going, a top-five positional finish is still a possible outcome.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb bounced back with a solid outing last week after garnering just two receptions for 29 yards in his season debut. Still, he does not look quite as attractive in starting fantasy lineups with Cooper Rush at the helm. You will not be able to trade for Lamb this season any cheaper than you will this week.
Rush got the job done in Week 2, leading the Cowboys to a shocking victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Of course, Dallas' offense will only reach its pinnacle with Dak Prescott (thumb) under center, but Lamb should be just fine in his QB1's absence. He was clearly the preferred receiving option for Rush last week, posting an impressive 37% team target share.
Players to lead their teams in target share in Weeks 1 and 2, MNF pending:
Cooper Kupp
CeeDee Lamb
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
Ekeler/Everett/Big Mike
Brandin Cooks
Drake London
Diontae Johnson
Curtis Samuel— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 19, 2022
Michael Gallup (knee) and Dalton Schultz (knee) are both questionable at best for Week 3, so Lamb will continue to soak up the targets if at least one of them is sidelined.
There are reports that Prescott could return as early as Week 4, so the window to buy Lamb at a discount may close quickly. He still has league-winning upside with the Cowboys at full strength and will be a serviceable starter in the meantime.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs offense has not taken a step back despite losing Tyreek Hill this past offseason. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are still elite (shocking, I know), but it's third-year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire that has been the best fantasy draft-day value on the Chiefs.
CEH was routinely being selected in the sixth round or later in PPR fantasy drafts but has opened the season as a top-five running back. He scored twice in Week 1 and averaged almost 10 yards per touch in Week 2. There's no guarantee this success will continue, though.
Out of all top-24 PPR running backs so far this season, Edwards-Helaire is one of only three to not play on 50% or more of snaps in either Week 1 or Week 2. Damien Harris and Breece Hall are the others and they are currently RB19 and RB24, respectively. The takeaway here is that Edwards-Helaire is overachieving as the RB5 given his utilization.
There's no denying that Edwards-Helaire is the starting running back on a great offense, but Jerick McKinnon's involvement is alarming. McKinnon out-snapped Edwards-Helaire last week and the two backs saw an equal snap count in Week 1. It also appears as if McKinnon will be getting most of the looks near the goal line.
RBs who were on the field for 100% of their team's red zone snaps in Week 2:
Jonathan Taylor, David Montgomery, Christian McCaffrey, Jerick McKinnon
Other notable rates:
88% - James Robinson
86% - Darrel Williams, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams
80% - Cordarrelle Patterson— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 20, 2022
Edwards-Helaire is sure to have some big performances throughout the season, but the level of production he has reached in these first two weeks is unsustainable with his current usage. If you can, sell him high for a big-name player that has underperformed with a greater workload.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Rashod Bateman is off to a hot start as the WR16 in PPR scoring and is by no means a must-trade player. We are seeing his upside in real-time as a big-play wide receiver for a quarterback on a mission in Lamar Jackson.
The issue is that outside of two big plays, Bateman has done very little for fantasy so far this season. Without his 55-yard score in Week 1, he would have finished with just one catch for four yards. If he didn't take a slant 75 yards to the house in Week 2, his final stat line would have been three catches for 33 yards.
HOLY BATMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tune in on CBS!! pic.twitter.com/iGgfmfFu7w
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 18, 2022
Of course, he did make these plays and is capable of doing so on any given week. What I am trying to illustrate is that there could be plenty of games this season in which Bateman disappoints, especially with Mark Andrews being the clear-cut primary target on a Ravens' offense that will run the ball more when J.K. Dobbins (knee) or Gus Edwards (knee) returns.
It could be difficult to pull the trigger on trading away Bateman as he looks like a special talent and a steal in fantasy drafts. It's possible that he wins on pure ability and efficiency, but cashing in for a receiver that sees more volume could be a smart move.
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